Yes, we feel exactly the same as you do. In fact, your post could've been my exact words. As far as the breakeven point, I priced this a little while ago and have some notes here that say a 10-day, hopper, no expiration pass is around $479 and an AP is around $477. Of course I think you can get the MYW passes cheaper than that through
Undercover Tourist, but I'm not sure how much the difference is. We've thought about getting the 10-day passes and then taking two 5-day trips, but it just doesn't sound as appealing as an AP. Our favorite resort is BC and some days we lounge around at BC and on the boardwalk, then walk to Epcot just for dinner. If we had MYW passes, I would feel like I was "wasting" a day on the pass just by entering a park for dinner. With the AP, we are very relaxed about what we do each day and don't worry about anything. Is that how you feel too?
We also rely on AP resort discounts because we really enjoy staying deluxe too. However, if these newly released discounts are a preview of future AP discounts, then we may not buy AP's next year either. Not sure what we'll do. Our kids are just hitting the age where Disney is a blast for them, so I don't see us going elsewhere. We may try a moderate resort? I don't know....we're going to try WL in April I think. Not sure what will happen after that. It all depends on the discounts and offers.