My FP+ success story ..

[Hokie2000]

Darn. I guess Trick or Treating is only for dogs then..........

Intentional obtuseness is usually an unsuccessful method of debate.

 

[Laketravis]

Intentional obtuseness is usually an unsuccessful method of debate.

As are straw man arguments.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

DK, I'm sorry but I think it's a fair comparison. Likening the making of a reservation for a 50 second event weeks or months in advance while proclaiming monumental success to performing the same process for an order of fries (which some customers would drive MILES for an order of McDonald's fries!) is simply a logical contrast.

It's also pure nonsense for someone to think they've been called a "dog" because the term "almost Pavlovian feat" is used to describe the behavior modification process used by Disney; that same term is used throughout several industries to describe the PROCESS, not the PARTICIPANTS.

Disney themselves have openly admitted they are building a behavioral modification construct and applying it to guests. If anyone resents being a part of that, take it up with them, not me.

FWIW -- I didn't think you were calling anyone a dog.
However, given your negativity regarding FP+, snark against posters who may like it, and stalking threads such as this one and posting relentlessly in a negative manner, you lack the credibility to believe that you meant Pavlovian response in a positive context.

 

[Shaden]

Garbage in garbage out? Hey, I don't know Josh, or what he selling, but unless his analysis is based on people's actual experience.....well, he really doesn't have much useful 'evidence'. Sure, Disney probably needs to do a better job of posting wait times, but if I had a nickel for every time someone on these boards posted 'the posted wait time for ride x was 45 minutes but it only took 20' I'd be rich! I assure you, the combined posted wait time for the 15 attractions we did on Dec 30 was ten times what we spent waiting.

While I would highly doubt your account of wait times, that's my prerogative, based on the fact that I have seen nothing like it on these boards in the time I have been here, ever.

But Josh's wait time calculations are based on a constant report system, the base on which they are calculated hasn't changed. If over time we see an increase, we see an increase. The basis for their calculation hasn't changed.

 

[BugsDaddy]

Lake actually directed the PP to Josh at Easy wdw. Who has posted waiting times from Pre and Post FP+ and has done some very good analysis. The empirical evidence is out there, its not deniable, it goes beyond anyone's anecdotal experiences (or their account of their experiences). You, and many others, should really look at it.

This reminds me of a story I experienced at an ATM machine once. I took out $100 and the ATM machine spit out 3 extra 20's. Trying to be honest, I called up the bank and advised them as to what happened. The person on the other end of the line would not accept what I was telling them. She kept saying, "Sir, our system is showing you took out $100 so that is what you took out." I kept saying, "Ma'am, I am looking at $160 in my hand right now." She said it was impossible based on what she was seeing I the system. Finally, I gave up trying to convince them. People can use reports and numbers to justify anything. Reports and numbers in itself does not constitute empirical evidence.

 

[Shaden]

FWIW -- I didn't think you were calling anyone a dog.
However, given your negativity regarding FP+, snark against posters who may like it, and stalking threads such as this one and posting relentlessly in a negative manner, you lack the credibility to believe that you meant Pavlovian response in a positive context.

For the record lake has made several comments congratulating Disney on Accomplishing things which from a business perspective are great, but which he personally strongly dislikes.

 

[Hokie2000]

Interesting how the "insulted" throw around insults.

No, you are fairly constant with the insults, but when called out you profess innocence and go into your "who, me?" routine. In which you usually toss out some more insults implying that the insulted party is too dumb to realize what you really meant.

We all know what you're doing, it's just usually not worth it to call you out because you get real defensive, real quick. If you want to be sarcastic and insulting I really don't care, I'm an adult and I can handle anything an Internet forum is going to throw at me. But at least own up to it for goodness sake!

 

[SmithSmith]

DK, I'm sorry but I think it's a fair comparison. Likening the making of a reservation for a 50 second event weeks or months in advance while proclaiming monumental success to performing the same process for an order of fries (which some customers would drive MILES for an order of McDonald's fries!) is simply a logical contrast.

It's also pure nonsense for someone to think they've been called a "dog" because the term "almost Pavlovian feat" is used to describe the behavior modification process used by Disney; that same term is used throughout several industries to describe the PROCESS, not the PARTICIPANTS.

Disney themselves have openly admitted they are building a behavioral modification construct and applying it to guests. If anyone resents being a part of that, take it up with them, not me.

I would believe you when you say you didn't mean it as an insult... if you were someone else. The Lake Travis that I read insults people quite often:

I suggested a way to make FP better, and you launched your hair-trigger All Things Disney cannons at me.

I suppose when you come from a defensive POV everything seems like an attack

You should change your username to "TwistedLogic".

Disney needs your help defending them in the "Disney's televised Christmas parade....ugh!" thread.

 

[BugsDaddy]

While I would highly doubt your account of wait times, that's my prerogative, based on the fact that I have seen nothing like it on these boards in the time I have been here, ever. But Josh's wait time calculations are based on a constant report system, the base on which they are calculated hasn't changed. If over time we see an increase, we see an increase. The basis for their calculation hasn't changed.

So, Disney keeps Josh in the loop on any changes made to the way that wait times are calculated so that he can adjust his own calculations accordingly?

 

[Sharpdisney]

I'm actually the one you are addressing about making the remark that WDW seemed stale. But you seemed to just latch on to this one statment and take it out of context. I was talking about reserving FP+ for attractions and looking at my options. Please go through and look at the post again.

Additionally, this is the 2nd time you have suggested in a, albeit, veiled manner that if someone doesn't like what's happening at WDW they should go elsewhere for their vacation. In an earlier post, you suggested an all inclusive destination. Well, I have a suggestion for you, please stop handing out unsolicited vacation advice.

I'm actually really sorry, I did not mean it that way at all! I'm sorry, I just used what I thought "stale" meant, as in something that was old and used up. So I'm sorry that I really interpreted it to mean that you had been previously, and now there is this new system that can be a pain to use, for rides or shows that were old news to you. I'm very sorry, I thought that was what you meant.

I was only trying to say that with fresh eyes it didn't seem stale. I did not mean to jump on that bandwagon of "If you don't like it then get out." I can see many have so many concerns over the new system, the glitches, even construction, so I don't mean to imply just to get over it or move on. Just to share some other trips that I found fun and relaxing. Maybe if some people tried other trips, they might like something else better, or more likely, soon return to Disney and happily see old favorite rides, or something new that might have been added. I honestly did not mean to advise, if you don't like it, go elsewhere. I am sorry.

 

[Shaden]

This reminds me of a story I experienced at an ATM machine once. I took out $100 and the ATM machine spit out 3 extra 20's. Trying to be honest, I called up the bank and advised them as to what happened. The person on the other end of the line would not accept what I was telling them. She kept saying, "Sir, our system is showing you took out $100 so that is what you took out." I kept saying, "Ma'am, I am looking at $160 in my hand right now." She said it was impossible based on what she was seeing I the system. Finally, I gave up trying to convince them. People can use reports and numbers to justify anything. Reports and numbers in itself does not constitute empirical evidence.

LOL. Clearly not someone who does research. While things like that might happen, we don't rely on a single set of numbers. Its why any good research collects a significant amount of data, so that the outliers don't skew the overall observations.

What you pointed out is exactly why we don't accept anyone's individual anecdotal experience.

If that same person were to start telling others "hey this atm gives you $160 when you withdraw 100, free money !" and others attempted to replicate their experience but failed. The overall analysis would be, the ATM gives you $100 when you withdraw $100, other than in extremely rare cases.

Thanks for the story that highlights exactly what I was pointing to.

So, Disney keeps Josh in the loop on any changes made to the way that wait times are calculated so that he can adjust his own calculations accordingly?

And Josh is quite in the loop, about a good deal of things, though certainly not all. A change to how Disney determines posted wait time, I doubt would slip by him. There is the physical system, which would be easy to see if it changed, and there would be a noticed break in the posted times. Let alone that he has a significant number of contacts in WDW.

 

[Laketravis]

FWIW -- I didn't think you were calling anyone a dog.

Thank you.

However, given your negativity regarding FP+, snark against posters who may like it, and stalking threads such as this one and posting relentlessly in a negative manner.....

Offering suggestions on how to improve a system is not negativity. I am not snark against any poster who may like it, but I do respond to "snark" accordingly and to comments directed at me by those who don't like the fact that I see areas that could be improved. As far as "stalking threads and posting relentlessly", I won't engage.

 

[BugsDaddy]

LOL. Clearly not someone who does research. While things like that might happen, we don't rely on a single set of numbers. Its why any good research collects a significant amount of data, so that the outliers don't skew the overall observations. What you pointed out is exactly why we don't accept anyone's individual anecdotal experience. If that same person were to start telling others "hey this atm gives you $160 when you withdraw 100, free money !" and others attempted to replicate their experience but failed. The overall analysis would be, the ATM gives you $100 when you withdraw $100, other than in extremely rare cases. Thanks for the story that highlights exactly what I was pointing to.

My point is, you cannot deny what is clearly in front of you by hiding behind reports or what numbers on a screen somewhere is showing you. The fact that you so easily discount individual personal experience even when you can observe it (empirical evidence) shows a lack of basic common sense.

Someone else mentioned garbage in / garbage out. If you are a researcher and accept data for what it is without understanding how it is gathered and how it relates directly to the problem at hand, you couldn't be a very good researcher.

 

[Sharpdisney]

Disney themselves have openly admitted they are building a behavioral modification construct and applying it to guests. If anyone resents being a part of that, take it up with them, not me.

What does that mean? I am not debating or arguing about it at all, none whatsoever, I am just curious what that means? Only because I heard of the Disney customer service, and all the books about it, and that type of thing. What type of behavior modification do you mean, or how is that used for guests? Is it something like "Free dining" but since the rooms are regular price, it isn't really "free", when compared to a sale of 30% on a room? I'm only just curious, not attacking or starting anything.

 

[BugsDaddy]

LOL. Clearly not someone who does research. While things like that might happen, we don't rely on a single set of numbers. Its why any good research collects a significant amount of data, so that the outliers don't skew the overall observations. What you pointed out is exactly why we don't accept anyone's individual anecdotal experience. If that same person were to start telling others "hey this atm gives you $160 when you withdraw 100, free money !" and others attempted to replicate their experience but failed. The overall analysis would be, the ATM gives you $100 when you withdraw $100, other than in extremely rare cases. Thanks for the story that highlights exactly what I was pointing to. And Josh is quite in the loop, about a good deal of things, though certainly not all. A change to how Disney determines posted wait time, I doubt would slip by him. There is the physical system, which would be easy to see if it changed, and there would be a noticed break in the posted times. Let alone that he has a significant number of contacts in WDW.

So, basically, you have one source from which you have created your entire hypothesis and you trust that source over actual positive customer experiences which seem to be becoming more and more prevalent. Yep, you are a heck of a researcher. Never question yourself or the data. That always works.

 

[Hokie2000]

FWIW -- I didn't think you were calling anyone a dog. However, given your negativity regarding FP+, snark against posters who may like it, and stalking threads such as this one and posting relentlessly in a negative manner, you lack the credibility to believe that you meant Pavlovian response in a positive context.

Exactly - but of course, Lake and Shaden will just condescend to us that we just don't understand what Pavlovian response means.

 

[MrInfinity]

Those who are planners and park goers (regardless of RD or not, fast pace or not) flexible in their schedule and situation, are largely happy with the current system. Those who don't like the advance planning, being on a schedule, or have family members who need to be scheduled around, and just like to wing it, not so much. I think it is hard to be spontaneous any more, but I'm not sure it's because of fp+ as much as it is about the crowds.

I don't get why people say they find it hard to be spontaneous because Disney World changed their ride queuing system. Spontaneity is a personality trait. If you are it, or want to be it, you just be so. It has nothing to do with paper FP- or electronic FP+. You are not restricted to a schedule any more than you were under FP-.

Before, if you are in Fantasyland, and you feel it's too busy, you go over to Frontierland, and see the return time for BTMRR, and maybe pull an FP- for it. You would WALK over there, look and decide. NOW, you just look at your phone, see if you want to pull a FP+ for it, or Splash, or if it's worth walking over there at all. If you don't have a phone, you walk to the nearest kiosk which is only a 2 min walk away instead of across the park. Once you get to the kiosk, you can peruse the entire park to see what you'd like to pull a FP+ to next.

Folks who think they are locked into their FP+ choices are just wrong. So you have a 1pm FP+ to Space Mountain. Does that mean you HAVE to ride Space Mountain then? Heck no. You can go anywhere between 12:50 and 2:15, which is pretty much an hour and a half window, or you can not go at all and just change it to something else.

People are not locked into being non-spontaneous. If you are less spontaneous, or crowds bother you, it's probly more of a natural sign of aging, that as people grow up, they like theme parks less, they know princesses and pirates are not real, and so being in a mass of people to go on a ride is just less appealing. When we were young, before FP and all, we'd wait an hour for Space Mountain and didn't care.

Really. It's just parents that get older, more impatient, and most importantly, are now the ones spending the money, and so feel the obligation to get the most out of their money. These are just normal stresses of being an adult that lead one to becoming less spontaneous -- it has nothing to do w a new ride queuing system.

the new fp+ system helps, and if my family liked being on a schedule, we would have embraced the new system as others have.

You're NOT on a schedule. Period. If you feel you are on a schedule, you need to just stop, and say, I am not on a schedule. Because you're not! No more than you would have been had you pulled a paper FP- and had a return window. Now, you get the same passes only you don't have to go to the ride first to get them. You don't have to go to any of them if you don't want to and wish to do something else spontaneously.

They're all so grateful, but they really had no idea what goes into working towards a successful Disney vacation. They naively believed they could just show up, buy tickets, and wander through the parks, trying to figure out what to do.

TONS of people do this -- and GASP -- have fun!

I plan for similar people. They love it. But they would do just as well just showing up since they are not the ones on the mission to get on rides 10 times. You know it is only the ex-old-FP-lovers that are put out... the regular guest gets tons of benefit by simply picking 3 rides then going to the parks to have fun.

They can, but their vacation can be so much better with just a little planning.

This is trying to quantify "better". Stop. Everyone likes to say they feel for others needs to have their vacation be better. Their vacation is probly magical! It is only the disgruntled few out here who are not having a good time. And perhaps that is because ppl stop being spontaneous and focus so much on how their vacation needs to be better, optimal, etc.

I think the problem with my family is that we've been going so long that we are used to being able to just show up at a park and walk in to attractions and restaurants

Maybe you've been going to a different Disney World, but I've been going since the 70's and it's ALWAYS been busy! I really do remember waiting an hour for Space Mountain! We'd stand there and look at the comet thingys on the screens and wait. Over and over, every time an hour. In recent years, I don't think I've waited more than 20 min! I always manage to get a FP- or FP+ or rope drop Space Mountain and we have not waited 20 min for it in any of our last 3 trips.

Having to know where we're going to be, what we're going to do (and at what time) as well as where we're going to eat

Again, don't have to. As long as you're okay with Quick Service or lower demand TS, you don't even need to book restaurants. Now if you want the brand new BOG restaurant or highly coveted CRT, of course you need a reservation.

I have said that if I go again (and I probably will, if for no other reason than to test my plan), that I will not make reservations, and maybe only 6 or 7 fps for the whole week.

I am willing to bet you will choose all of your available FP+'s. There is no reason not to. It just gives you more options while you're there. Not more restrictions -- more options.

 

[Shaden]

So, basically, you have one source from which you have created your entire hypothesis and you trust that source over actual positive customer experiences which seem to be becoming more and more prevalent. Yep, you are a heck of a researcher. Never question yourself or the data. That always works.

Not at all, in general I believe people's positive accounts, just like I believe the many negative accounts we have seen here, just like I believe that you got $160 when you withdrew $100. But the overall impact, the average effect of the system, is something else entirely and is best determined by tracking aggregate data, which is what Josh has posted. You are free to provide your own analysis, by all means let me know how your conclusions differ from his and why, maybe you will provide a more convincing interpretation. Others posited that there was a huge spike in attendance for instance, but then we were informed that attendance was only slightly up. Again of course, this is only according to Disney, maybe they are lying to us ?

And I have questioned the data, and have seen the data posted by Josh corroborated by others, and have also done so myself.

 

[Suvadoo]

I'm actually really sorry, I did not mean it that way at all! I'm sorry, I just used what I thought "stale" meant, as in something that was old and used up. So I'm sorry that I really interpreted it to mean that you had been previously, and now there is this new system that can be a pain to use, for rides or shows that were old news to you. I'm very sorry, I thought that was what you meant.

I was only trying to say that with fresh eyes it didn't seem stale. I did not mean to jump on that bandwagon of "If you don't like it then get out." I can see many have so many concerns over the new system, the glitches, even construction, so I don't mean to imply just to get over it or move on. Just to share some other trips that I found fun and relaxing. Maybe if some people tried other trips, they might like something else better, or more likely, soon return to Disney and happily see old favorite rides, or something new that might have been added. I honestly did not mean to advise, if you don't like it, go elsewhere. I am sorry.

that's all right. I know you will have a fabulous time. The one thing everyone on these boards has in common is a passion for Disney. If we didn't care so much we wouldn't criticize the things we don't like.

 

[MrInfinity]

Yesterday afternoon, in less than 90 seconds, I booked FP+ for 6 for Mine train 30 days out (Friday). Did spend another 30 seconds to see if it could be changed for time and it could not. But it is for the decent hour of 7:05pm.

This morning--saw all the negativity this morning, hopped on and booked FP+ for 4 (2 in my party are unavailable) for Mine Train. It did kick our a late time (8:45). Spent another 30 seconds to change time and there were several options available. Since I don't know when daughters' rehearsal ends, as chose 5:25. But there was a 4ish time slot and about 5 or 6 choices after that time slot.

But hey--trying seems more productive than convincing others to join folks down the negativity path. This is not the same as having a bad opinion or experience. But when you plague a thread with your experiences, opinions, snark, and hey universal is better-oh wait wrong thread posts to derail from the success of the first post, well--what was your goal that could not be fulfilled In the other threads of negative or "give me your thoughts" threads?

But hey--look at me--10 FP+'s over 2 days at 30 days out for Mine Train!

Hey stop being so happy about this -- you did not accomplish anything cool.