I've figured out how to save $20,000 over the next five years and most likely get more bang for the buck. And I give FP+ 100% credit for motivating me to explore those options.
I think that's excellent, and applaud you for making the changes work for you.
I've seen much the same thing, on a smaller scale, with rabid on-siters once the cost of on-site passed their tolerance level. They started exploring offsite options and quickly discovered that they could get more room in nicer surroundings for much, much less. For some, "Disney magic" still trumps that, but I've seen people I never would have believed could be happy offsite who were actually much happier once they were pushed out of their comfort zone, to the point where they even (*gasp!*) started exploring non-Disney attractions.
Well, we certainly did find ourselves spending less time in the park each day which is counter to Disney's strategic objective and caused us to re-examine our onsite/dining strategy.
So long as they're filling their hotels (and 89% is generally considered full capacity -- get above that and you're putting people in rooms that frankly need work), and so long as they've got people in the parks filling the restaurants, I don't think Disney cares where you stay or how much time you spend in the park. They want the highest percentage possible of "big spenders", and if they can replace you with someone who is going to stay onsite, eat onsite, AND spend tons in the shops, they're good. The risk they took with FP+ is that they'd drive away formerly faithful customers, who were likely to lose interest once it was clear they couldn't repeatdly reride as easily they could with the FP- system, without drawing new people in. So far, it doesn't look like that is happening.
Disney presumably had the numbers on how many people were repeat riders under the old system, so they had a pretty good idea how bad *that* risk was; where they may get bit, IMHO, is in the fact that some of us who didn't use old FP were repeat riders of things like The TTA, which never had a FP but were usually easy to ride repeatedly. Could be the "Repeat TTA" type is also the "Will never take a survey" type,
and the "Won't wait in lines" type -- have a good percentage of those, and Disney's numbers are going to be very off.
But to be honest I think things are shaking out about as they predicted; the people who spend the most time in the parks are also the people who will spend the most money in the parks, or at least a higher percentage of those than before.
while WDW is seeing high occupancy among it's limited inventory, I don't think the off-site market is anywhere near that and will continue to provide wonderful deals.
You are correct. Especially when it comes to timeshares and rental homes, Orlando is overbuilt, probably meaning that, so long as there's a local draw that keeps pulling people in (Disney, Universal, whatever), somebody is going to keep building newer and better resorts (fancier pool areas on the low end; fancier service on the high), adding to the possible units, that isn't likely to change in the foreseeable future.