Most Economical DVC Property 2023

[hayesdvc]

With the new 2023 dues, is there a chart showing an updated list of the most economical DVC resorts based on price, dues and number of years left on contract?

 

[DVChris]

From the sponsor’s site: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-fall-2022/

 

[happythoughts & pixiedust]

The sponsor’s chart does not take into effect time value of money or inflation and assumes contracts are held to expiration. A more thorough present value analysis would rank Riviera, Saratoga, and Aulani higher because they are cheaper up front. But for the most part the rankings are fairly accurate if you go with the assumption of holding the contract until it expires.

If you are going to resell the contract at any point in the future, the most economical rankings can be greatly affected by how well the contract appreciates.

That said, the lists top 4 - grand Floridian,
Copper Creek, and Polynesian, probably have the best prospects for appreciation as well. I’m counting out Riv on appreciation because of resale restrictions. And Poly is a wild card - if the new Poly tower is included in the existing association, Poly will go up. If new Poly tower is a new association, existing Poly goes down and it’s prospects for appreciation are negatively affected.

Bottom line best bet: Grand Floridian or Copper Creek. Poly if you want to gamble that the new
Tower is same assoc. Riviera resale if you are going to keep a looong time, want to only stay at Riv and love Epcot/us location.

and the trump card: buy where you want to stay regardless of cost. Happiness is better than saving a few hundred bucks a year and regretting where you are staying.

 

[Nursemanit]

If you want direct, VGF right now has a slightly less than 5% edge over RR - the lower MF really makes up for the 6-year contract length. But last year Poly was at roughly the same amount for MF as VGF is now and then it went up over 8% - while RR has been very stable. Making the cynical assumption that the lower MF at VGF is sales related - I could see an 8% jump once VGF2 sells out negating the difference. RR was at one point considered " high MF " but has quickly moved to the middle.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Don't forget that the point requirements for each resort play into the economics of the resort. If you're going to book at 11 months then it's a bigger analysis. If you were going to use them at 7 months then that's different.

 

[AC168]

The sponsor’s chart does not take into effect time value of money or inflation and assumes contracts are held to expiration. A more thorough present value analysis would rank Riviera, Saratoga, and Aulani higher because they are cheaper up front. But for the most part the rankings are fairly accurate if you go with the assumption of holding the contract until it expires.

If you are going to resell the contract at any point in the future, the most economical rankings can be greatly affected by how well the contract appreciates.

That said, the lists top 4 - grand Floridian,
Copper Creek, and Polynesian, probably have the best prospects for appreciation as well. I’m counting out Riv on appreciation because of resale restrictions. And Poly is a wild card - if the new Poly tower is included in the existing association, Poly will go up. If new Poly tower is a new association, existing Poly goes down and it’s prospects for appreciation are negatively affected.

Bottom line best bet: Grand Floridian or Copper Creek. Poly if you want to gamble that the new
Tower is same assoc. Riviera resale if you are going to keep a looong time, want to only stay at Riv and love Epcot/us location.

and the trump card: buy where you want to stay regardless of cost. Happiness is better than saving a few hundred bucks a year and regretting where you are staying.

I agree. I did a more detailed analysis and got AUL as best then SSR. Problem with AUL for me is that I’d only go there once every five years or so but I’d go to WDW once every two years. (I own at VGC already.)

 

[Cfabar1]

To me, seeing certain resort’s prices crashing so low right now is making me question some of the established logic. I haven’t had time to play with the spreadsheets, but to me AUL resale seems quite attractive right now, even including the higher dues you will pay. SSR prices are also falling, so I’d be curious there.

CC seems to get the love for best value, if you hold the contract forever, but I go back to “buy where you want to stay” as well. I want to be able to walk to the MK, and I will rarely visit Hawaii, so Aulani is not the best place for me to purchase my points.

 

[JoeyPeligroso]

Don't forget that the point requirements for each resort play into the economics of the resort. If you're going to book at 11 months then it's a bigger analysis. If you were going to use them at 7 months then that's different.

Agree, especially when comparing between Copper Creek and VGF. Copper Creek has a very nice point chart overall. This does make CCV even more attractive on this list. While I own both and enjoy both, I certainly had to buy a whole lot less CCV!

There are certainly many other reasons to consider both of these resorts, but if we are considering “value” relative to point requirements, I think I would favor CCV over VGF.

 

[BruinEd03]

If you want direct, VGF right now has a slightly less than 5% edge over RR - the lower MF really makes up for the 6-year contract length. But last year Poly was at roughly the same amount for MF as VGF is now and then it went up over 8% - while RR has been very stable. Making the cynical assumption that the lower MF at VGF is sales related - I could see an 8% jump once VGF2 sells out negating the difference. RR was at one point considered " high MF " but has quickly moved to the middle.

I wouldn't consider RR in the economical discussion. You'll have to buy direct for it to get most of the benefits. If you buy resale, you're restricted to just RR. In the economical discussion, you pretty much have to go resale.

 

[AstroBlasters]

From the sponsor’s site: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-fall-2022/

The prices on there seem high relative to what I have seen on ROFR thread. Here is another data point:

https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/blog/november-2022-average-dvc-resale-price-per-point/

 

[Nursemanit]

I wouldn't consider RR in the economical discussion. You'll have to buy direct for it to get most of the benefits. If you buy resale, you're restricted to just RR. In the economical discussion, you pretty much have to go resale.

1. The first 4 words of the post say "if you want direct"
2. I 100% disagree that you have to go resale as my RR direct is less per point than my resale BWV.
3. If you are calculating to the end of the contract - then resale restrictions are meaningless to the original owner. And right now the resale price of RR is roughly the same percentage off the actual selling price as other resorts so it really doesn't make a difference either way.

 

[BruinEd03]

1. The first 4 words of the post say "if you want direct"
2. I 100% disagree that you have to go resale as my RR direct is less per point than my resale BWV.
3. If you are calculating to the end of the contract - then resale restrictions are meaningless to the original owner. And right now the resale price of RR is roughly the same percentage off the actual selling price as other resorts so it really doesn't make a difference either way.

You may have been able to purchase direct in the past for a great price for RR. Show me where you can buy direct for RR today, as a new owner, for less than BWV.

Furthermore, even if it’s better than BWV, that’s at the bottom of the economical listings. RR direct would not be beating VGF resale.

RR resale is not in the competition due to resale restrictions.

 

[Nursemanit]

You may have been able to purchase direct in the past for a great price for RR. Show me where you can buy direct for RR today, as a new owner, for less than BWV.

Furthermore, even if it’s better than BWV, that’s at the bottom of the economical listings. RR direct would not be beating VGF resale.

RR resale is not in the competition due to resale restrictions.

Every contract I can find for 150 BWV resale is at best $6.50 a point which added to the 8.53 MF is $15.03 per point
Buying 150 RR today Direct is 4.47 a point added to $8.50 MV is $12.97 per point.

Restrictions are not a factor in this example since restrictions don't affect the direct buyer - they are not restricted at all. The resale BWV is restricted from RR ( but that is not significant enough to affect value)

 

[CraigInPA]

I think the missing factor is the point charts. For resorts like CC, it's using a low point chart inherited from BRV, which makes it a screamingly great bargain compared to something like RIV. I believe someone did this analysis a couple of years back. That analysis included the buy in price and the maintenance cost, and ranked them by the average number of points required to stay in the most common studio type.

 

[RoseGold]

The most economical properties are always going to be SSR/OKW because of the chart. The chart does the work.

I like the board sponsor's math for SAP, but the legacy charts go a long way, even with slightly more expensive points/dues. That's also why the dues are cheaper in the newer resorts, to an extent, because the rooms take so many more points, so the costs are spread thinner.

 

[tom1944]

Most economical if held to expiration is different than most economical if held until some future date you plan to sell your points.

That calculation requires a number of estimates which may or not be accurate

If I buy in 2023 and sell in 2040 it is really a guess what those points will be worth. The resort that is hot today might not be a desired resort in 2040.

I would guess the 3 monorail resorts would hold value over the other resorts.

If a transportation system gets added to Saratoga, OKW or AK that would also change the resale value.

What percentage of owners hold to expiration?
Not many I would guess so resale value at the time you sell really sets the what is most economical list.

 

[JoeyPeligroso]

I think the missing factor is the point charts. For resorts like CC, it's using a low point chart inherited from BRV, which makes it a screamingly great bargain compared to something like RIV. I believe someone did this analysis a couple of years back. That analysis included the buy in price and the maintenance cost, and ranked them by the average number of points required to stay in the most common studio type.

Agree, the charts should be considered if “value” is based largely on the economics of buying and holding for lengthy period of time. I don’t think these analyses have been based on a “buy where you want to stay” consideration - which is very important to many, but is an individual preference in considering ownership. It is tougher to put “buy where you what to stay” considerations on spreadsheet that is used for groups.

 

[Yankee626]

You cant use point charts to determine value of a contract because the points can be used at any resort. I think you can use Purchase price , Length of contract remaining and Maint Fees . Buying where you want to stay is just personal preference and has no basis on comparable value.

 

[Yankee626]

It would be interesting to see if there were any statistic that could show the percentage of DVC points used at the point of purchase resort as opposed to other resorts. Then rank them by Resort. Im pretty sure Grand Cal would be Number 1 on that ranking. Vero Beach and SSR would be last.

 

[AC168]

I bought VGC just to use at VGC. I’m going to buy SSR or AUL to use everywhere else. Though I did look at potential travel dates and realized I could get most of what I want (2 BR) at 7 months.