tlbwriter said:
Yes, but you are assuming that when he buys that overvalued house, its value (and his equity) will continue to rise. And that's not necessarily the case. He's obviously living in an area that's on a bubble, and when the bubble bursts, home prices will plunge. And then he'll be stuck with a $750K mortgage on a house that's now worth half of that. If renting cost anywhere close to buying in that area, I agree he'd be better off buying. But the point they made was that when renting in the same area - on the same street! - is so much cheaper than buying, it means something in the market is out of kilter, and it will eventually right itself.
Would you brother be able to buy that same house for $3000/month? Or not much more than that? If so, he should buy. But if it would cost $6-7000/month for him to buy it, he should consider putting the extra money somewhere else, rather than into a house that isn't going to hold that inflated value forever. Sure, he might sell at the right time and make a huge windfall. But he might not.
Well, first of all, while I think that there are definitely areas that are *way* overinflated in real estate, I don't believe that we'll see any areas (even the Silicon Valley) drop by 50% when housing cools off. It won't be the big "POP" that we all heard in March of 2000 when the Nasdaq started to plunge. It will be more of a "hissssss" if you will...a slow leak. A 5-10% drop is a more likely scenario, followed by a fairly long period with no growth.
The problems will begin with people who are new real estate "investors". These are the folks who are late to the game and are buying properties thinking that the market will just continue to go up Up UP. And they're buying houses with very risky mortgages thinking they'll be able to unload them in short order. "Hey, why not use the banks' money right?" When the market cools, those people will be the first affected, because they're not able to flip the house for a quick sale, and perhaps the rent revenue isn't covering the mortgage.....foreclosure city here we come.
So real estate investing will slow, causing building to slow, causing manufacturing to slow....and the economy will slow down with it.
The next group of people it will hurt is first time home buyers, because they may now own a home that is worth slightly less than they paid for it, so they may have little to no equity if they've taken out one of these risky home mortgages. It will surely suck for them to be paying on a home that is worth less than it was when they bought it. Even if it was worth 5% less, it would still suck. And it'll suck even more that many of those folks won't even start to pay down prinicple for up to five years in....and if the market is still flat....that they've been paying five years....for nothing. They could have lived in an apartment all that time and been in the same spot.
And then when you factor in that people have been pulling equity out of homes like crazy..."hey my house is worth 3 times what it was worth when I bought it!!" "Now I can afford that new kitchen!!" Yeah, but you need to pay the bank back for that new kitchen. And well, so your home apprecicated? That's all great, but it means nothing unless you are selling and moving into a cheaper home. On the contrary, when your house value goes up 3 times, unless you're ready to unload it, what it will most definitely mean is that your property taxes are going to go up. Yay? I think not.
So with all that equity no longer being pulled out....well, watch consumer spending drop. Home equity loans are a big part of what is holding those numbers up right now. I'm betting it's also a big reason why Disney World happens to be seeing record numbers this year....