Monorails - they should have expanded the system

[Brad Bishop]

Back in the 1900s (sounds old, doesn't it) when they were going nuts with building theme parks at WDW, they stopped expanding the monorail system.

I know it's partly due to cutting costs in getting a new park open, still, it seems like it'd have made sense to expand the EPCOT loop to include MGM, and, eventually, Animal Kingdom.

I'm just saying it would have been neat had the monorail been a 'system' instead of a sort of MK/EPCOT thing.

I know, you could argue that: The cost of each mile of monorail would have paid for buses for the next 100 years at the park (or whatever the calculation would come out to be). I just think of the monorail as dual-purpose: 1) getting people around - 2) the attraction of it.

 

[goofy4tink]

Between the actual cost of building it, then the cost of maintaining it, as well as the day to day expenses to just run it, it would be prohibitive to run it any further. They did have plans to run it further out, but shelved those plans. Can you imagine what it would cost to stay in WDW, or to get into the parks, if there was such an expansion to the monorail??? Man, then people would really have something to gripe about!!!

 

[DVC-Don]

Back when they built Epcot, Disney almost went under. There was a war amoungst several investors who wanted to break Disney up and sell off the parts.

 

[Jestocost]

A conservative estimate for monorail capital construction costs (exclusive of land or right of way acquisition costs, which are not an issue for Disney) is $85 million per mile and many systems have significantly exceeded that figure. If you do the math, it's not hard to see why Disney has elected not to expand the system.

 

[grimley1968]

I have to be honest: I hope they never expand the monorail system. It's fun, in a nostalgic sort of way, to ride the monorail where it exists, but I usually find it's faster to drive, bus or boat than the monorails.

If they COULD build it, I wouldn't mind some sort of light rail system to expand to other parks, but I really doubt the swampy terrain in that area could handle even light rail.

The best bet, and I do hope they do this someday, would be to dig out more canals, etc. to get from place to place. Maybe not park to park, as this would be extremely time-wasting. MGM to EPCOT, or MK area resorts to MK, is about as far as the boats should have to travel. But it would be nice to see more "connectedness" among some of the resorts via water.

I'd be happy with a GPS/RFID enabled bus system that would have readerboards at each bus stop telling you the wait times for each bus, down to within 1 minute accuracy, as well as the expanded flexibility such a system would offer (if used in conjunction with cameras at the stops with dispatch monitoring them). This would also be helpful for the boats and monorails, though not as needed as with the buses.

 

[AllyBri]

Back when they built Epcot, Disney almost went under. There was a war amoungst several investors who wanted to break Disney up and sell off the parts.

and to this I say,
Thank you Michael Eisner.

 

[Brad Bishop]

A conservative estimate for monorail capital construction costs (exclusive of land or right of way acquisition costs, which are not an issue for Disney) is $85 million per mile and many systems have significantly exceeded that figure. If you do the math, it's not hard to see why Disney has elected not to expand the system.

Wow - I was going to call you on that figure but the Las Vegas Monorail (thanks, Google) was $87mil/mile which, from the articles I saw may have been slightly inflated based on political nonsense. The article I saw said it should have cost $50mil/mile.

Way cheaper, and more flexible, to just buy buses.

I always thought the monorail was a neat transportation system and kind of wished cities would adopt it rather than the current subways / light rail stuff. It *seems* like it ought to be cheaper to just build some pylons and beams down city streets rather than bore tunnels and build larger bridges to support the subways. Of course, that's all city-talk, not WDW-talk.

I think Disney sort of killed the monorail by showcasing it in his theme parks. It make it into a theme park attraction instead of a real transportation system in most people's minds.

 

[keishashadow]

Cost factor aside, the monorail amentity for the MK resorts (including the 2 oldest Poly & CR) is a great perc & gives them a special cachet...helps to justify paying the big bucks for these big three too.

if anything they should have extended it to WL & possible FW

 

[Chip 'n Dale Express]

Money aside, there are other practical reasons why an expanded monorail wouldn't work as well as you might think at WDW.

Although buses lack the "cool" factor of the monorail, they do allow for extreme flexibility. They can be re-routed to fit demand at the drop of a hat. They can bypass broken down vehicles. And they can be more direct.

 

[Sandi]

Money aside, there are other practical reasons why an expanded monorail wouldn't work as well as you might think at WDW.

Although buses lack the "cool" factor of the monorail, they do allow for extreme flexibility. They can be re-routed to fit demand at the drop of a hat. They can bypass broken down vehicles. And they can be more direct.

. . . and, if a bus breaks down, you get off and onto a new bus. Having been "stuck in the sky," I can assure you it's no fun.

 

[goofy4tink]

. . . and, if a bus breaks down, you get off and onto a new bus. Having been "stuck in the sky," I can assure you it's no fun.

Oh yeah....been there, done that. No way would it have been an easy task to empty all those cars and get all the guest off/down. But, it sure would have made for some interesting memories!!!

 

[ducklite]

IMHO the monorail is not all that efficient. It's actually a rather slow, cumbersome mode of transportation that's often affected by severe weather and occasional power outages.

The buses are a faster, less expensive, more flexible, and much more efficient manner of transporting millions of guests each year. If they did expand the monorail that money would have to come from somewhere, and I can see ticket prices easily costing 10-20% more to cover the cost--no thanks!

Anne

 

[Endeavour105]

IMHO the monorail is not all that efficient. It's actually a rather slow, cumbersome mode of transportation that's often affected by severe weather and occasional power outages.

The buses are a faster, less expensive, more flexible, and much more efficient manner of transporting millions of guests each year. If they did expand the monorail that money would have to come from somewhere, and I can see ticket prices easily costing 10-20% more to cover the cost--no thanks!

Anne

Give it just a little more time - like another year or 2 and you'll see ticket prices go up another 10-20% anyway.... just because.....

 

[KINGBOBOFTHENORTH]

From an economic standpoint I don't think monorails provide any benefit over two rail systems yet are much more cumbersome to work with; i.e. switching tracks. That's why you don't see any cities that use monorails in lieu of dual rails, except that city in Germany that's had them since the 1930's and Las Vegas, which has them for the tourist-attraction factor.

BobK/Orlando

 

[bflynn]

I know this thread kinda went dormant, but I'm just joining and a new monorail is one of my favorite topics of speculation. In fact, this is my first post. The thing is - every discussion of monorails I've ever seen has focused on the costs. But cost is just one side of the equation. You also need to have a reasonable handle on what the value will be.

The costs - my estimate is that Disney needs 10 miles of track to connect Epcot, Disney MGM Studios, Animal Kingdom and Blizzard Beach with the logical related resorts - Yacht/Beach Club, Boardwalk, Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs and Animal Kingdom Lodge.

The commonly quoted cost of 85 million per mile is way too high; the Las Vegas monorail was built by Bombardier Transportation. There was significant cost issues involved there, including the fact that Bombardier is a private company seeking to turn a profit on the construction and I suspect had very little incentive to control costs properly. A more reasonable number is probably something on the order 25-50 million per mile including trains and stations, giving a total of 250-500 million. And it could be significantly lower if Disney were to leverage its own internal expertise at building fantastic, one of a kind rides...although from what I hear about Imagineering, that could also double the cost!

After determining the cost, figure out what revenues will come from spending the money. One source is that the hotels that touch this new monorail are more valuable to guests. That value can be captured by adding a surcharge cost onto the rooms. Considering the nearly 7000 rooms this would affect, the standard reported 75% occupancy rate for Disney Resorts and a $10-15 surcharge on each room (10 moderate, 15 deluxe), I get about 23 million a year in revenue just from a hotel surcharge. At a 10% cost of capital, that is 230 million in value. And I consider 10% to be on the high side for what is essentially a stable business, so the value could be even more.

Additional sources would be come from increases in visitors to see the new monorail, increases in purchases of park hopper tickets, increase in Water Parks and More options and probably increases in the occupancy rates at these hotels. I can't even to begin to estimate the value of those, nor the sheer PR value of building a new monorail.

All of which probably points to a project that is only close to break even. The money can be used somewhere else, for better projects. But its very close. If there could be reasonable expectations of cost controls getting the cost down to 10-20 million per mile by internalizing a lot of the construction, it is very possible this could be built someday.

Brian

 

[Jestocost]

I know this thread kinda went dormant, but I'm just joining and a new monorail is one of my favorite topics of speculation. In fact, this is my first post. The thing is - every discussion of monorails I've ever seen has focused on the costs. But cost is just one side of the equation. You also need to have a reasonable handle on what the value will be.

The costs - my estimate is that Disney needs 10 miles of track to connect Epcot, Disney MGM Studios, Animal Kingdom and Blizzard Beach with the logical related resorts - Yacht/Beach Club, Boardwalk, Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs and Animal Kingdom Lodge.

The commonly quoted cost of 85 million per mile is way too high; the Las Vegas monorail was built by Bombardier Transportation. There was significant cost issues involved there, including the fact that Bombardier is a private company seeking to turn a profit on the construction and I suspect had very little incentive to control costs properly. A more reasonable number is probably something on the order 25-50 million per mile including trains and stations, giving a total of 250-500 million. And it could be significantly lower if Disney were to leverage its own internal expertise at building fantastic, one of a kind rides...although from what I hear about Imagineering, that could also double the cost!

After determining the cost, figure out what revenues will come from spending the money. One source is that the hotels that touch this new monorail are more valuable to guests. That value can be captured by adding a surcharge cost onto the rooms. Considering the nearly 7000 rooms this would affect, the standard reported 75% occupancy rate for Disney Resorts and a $10-15 surcharge on each room (10 moderate, 15 deluxe), I get about 23 million a year in revenue just from a hotel surcharge. At a 10% cost of capital, that is 230 million in value. And I consider 10% to be on the high side for what is essentially a stable business, so the value could be even more.

Additional sources would be come from increases in visitors to see the new monorail, increases in purchases of park hopper tickets, increase in Water Parks and More options and probably increases in the occupancy rates at these hotels. I can't even to begin to estimate the value of those, nor the sheer PR value of building a new monorail.

All of which probably points to a project that is only close to break even. The money can be used somewhere else, for better projects. But its very close. If there could be reasonable expectations of cost controls getting the cost down to 10-20 million per mile by internalizing a lot of the construction, it is very possible this could be built someday.

Brian

Disney runs Bombardier monorails, for one, and the LV cost isn't the only one that hits those $ levels or more.

 

[Chip 'n Dale Express]

The thing is - every discussion of monorails I've ever seen has focused on the costs. But cost is just one side of the equation. You also need to have a reasonable handle on what the value will be.

Cost is VERY important... someone has to pay for it. And transportation is a non-revenue generating department. So what would the value be?

"It looks cool." "It's more fun than a bus" "It's the Disney way" Well, okay. But that doesn't justify $500m-$1b.

Well, what about convenience. You mention that you think it should go to Coronado Springs and Caribbean Beach. Those resorts are very different than the current monorail resorts... they're very spread out. Adding multiple stations within the resort will be very costly, and would also require extra walking for guests, as stations can only be placed so close. Plus, the more stops, the longer the train ride will be. An option would be to have one central stop, but then you have to have a shuttle bus. That alone gets rid of any convenience factor.

Ease of use? Would the system require transfers? Although you may think the transfer to get from MK to Epcot is pretty simple, I assure you, it baffles many. Guests who live in Boston, LA, NYC... they all learn the transit system because they live there. A Guest on vacation for a few days doesn't want to have to learn routes and transfers. OK, so we eliminate transfers and make one line. Well, now it takes forever to get from one side to the other. Trains get full midway.

What if a train breaks down? Happens all the time. Other trains can't bypass or get by. Where would the backup support come from? The then reduced bus force wouldn't be able to help.

The bottom line is that guests want a direct (preferably non-stop) method of transportation that is easy to use. They don't want to make a half dozen stops. They don't want to transfer. And they want it to be fast.

The bus system may not be glamorous, but it's efficient, flexible, dynamic, and elastic. 4 very key elements required for a transportation system.

The commonly quoted cost of 85 million per mile is way too high;

No... it isn't. And that doesn't include trains. A 4 car Bombardier MVI train cost $17m. A Disney 6 car train would be an estimated $25m. But with the stops you propose, you'll need larger trains to handle the people.

There was significant cost issues involved there, including the fact that Bombardier is a private company seeking to turn a profit on the construction and I suspect had very little incentive to control costs properly.

That doesn't make sense. Bombardier is a private company that wants to maximize profits by minimizing costs. That's how businesses work. No matter the angle, or the company or whatnot, EVERYONE has an incentive to minimize costs.

And it could be significantly lower if Disney were to leverage its own internal expertise at building fantastic, one of a kind rides...

Not really... Disney may have magic, but the magic doesn't make price tags shrink.

After determining the cost, figure out what revenues will come from spending the money.

None. Transportation is essentially a non-revenue generating department. They make thier money from what they already charge the resorts. Assuming your $23m/year in surcharges, and assuming $700m to build the system, that's around 30 years to pay for the system.

If there could be reasonable expectations of cost controls getting the cost down to 10-20 million per mile by internalizing a lot of the construction, it is very possible this could be built someday.

If construction were possible at $10m per mile, do you really think Las Vegas would be spending $88m per mile? That's like saying, sure, I can buy a brand new BMW 7 series for $10k.

 

[ducklite]

Why would you charge the moderates anything less than the deluxes--cosidering that in general you are running a lot more track to serve them.

What about AKL? CSR?

Frankly the monorail can't move as many people as fast as the bus system, and the bus system operates at a lower overall cost. The monorail is also much more prone to breakdown.

 

[Tara]

Let me just start by saying that I am not a monorail hater. I love it and can't imagine WDW without it.

I think it's fun to speculate about expanding the monorail system, but when it comes down to it, no Disney exec in her or his right might would spend $500m-$1b on expanding a system that is as slow and inefficient as the monorail. Think about the value in using that money to create a couple of blockbuster attractions...

Moreover, the monorail is cool, don't get me wrong. But I think it is appropriate where it is now and the novelty level is just right. Expand it and suddenly it becomes more and more like just another transportation method. And while I can accept the monorail pulling up to the GF and Poly, I think the context isn't right for the monorail to serve any other resorts. It's too jarring to imagine the monorail pulling up to any other resort, and when you consider the values and moderates, they aren't built to the same scale as the deluxes...putting in giant concrete piers and tracks and an elevated station would overshadow most of those resorts. IMO.

Finally, I think it's a mistake to assume Bombardier has no interest in controlling costs because it is privately held. They have HUGE incentive to cut costs! Your speculation centers around cutting cost to the customer by 70-80%, though. If they could do even half of that cost cutting, they could make monorail systems much more affordable and dramatically increase their sales.

Disney does a lot of things, but building large-scale transportation systems isn't one of them. Disney building its own system would be significantly MORE expensive because of the start up costs of acquiring the machinery, assembly location, technical expertise and staff, all to build ONE system. Why would they do that? Can you imagine shareholder and media reaction to 1) taking on enormous, unnecessary operating cost increases 2) making a staggeringly large NON-REVENUE generating capital expenditure 3) the inevitable delays and cost overruns as they struggle to do it right and 4) the eventual lay-off of all but essential maintenance staff once the system was complete? If I were a Disney shareholder, I would be OUTRAGED and likely sell my stock if such a fiscally irresponsible course of action were taken.

 

[clkelley]

Actually, what I would love to see is a fully-computerized automatic light rail system with 6-8 passenger individual cars.

Imagine eliminating ALL vehicle traffic on Disney property (except RVs and TTs going to Ft. Wilderness).

Imagine arriving at MCO and getting on your DME bus, then being driven to a central resort checkin facility. You are then shown to a rail car, you slide your Resort ID, punch in your destination on a touch screen and off you go directly to a dropoff point near your room.

Going resort to resort, no problem, just hop on the nearest car rolling by and punch in your destination, and off you go.

Can't figure out the touch screen system, no problem, if you don't input anything after a few minutes, the car will automatically direct to a "help" station where you can have a CM help you.

Worried about safety. If the worst happens and somebody you don't know jumps in your car with you, hit the big red emergency button, the door locks, and you are sped to an emergency station where police/medical help is there.

I do mean ALL vehicle traffic could be eliminated on Disney property. Several large parking lots could be built on the outskirts. A day guest lot, a resort guest lot for those driving in. This lot would also have a central resort check-in facility, and bell services to get your bags to your room. A couple of CM lots where CMs could be transported to a changing/costuming facility, then carried to an area backstage to enter their work area.

If a vehicle is disabled on the track ahead of you, the computer system could reroute you in a different direction, but still take you to your destination. Change your mind midway, or realize you forgot your tickets, no problem, just punch a few buttons on the touch screen and you are automatically redirected.

Sounds cool?? I think so. I'm also pretty sure that "somebody" at Disney has this idea on paper. Will it ever happen, who knows, but "this" would be the transportation system that would solve ALL of the problems, not just expanding the monorail.