Mod/deluxe split stay or lower cost deluxe?

I would do WL all 8 nights. We've done splits before and I really do not enjoying unpacking/packing/unpacking again. WL is a fantastic resort with younger children. The pool is small, there is a splash pad, plus there is so much to do at the resort - boat rentals, a 1/4 basketball court, plus you can boat to Ft. W and CR for even more dining and recreation options (this is assuming those boats are back in operation by the time your trip comes around). With two QS and two TS, there are a variety of dining options as well. In fact, when discounts come out, I would highly recommend pricing out a 1-bedroom at CCV to see if that is in your budget at all. CCV is in the WL main building and a 1-bedroom would offer you a full kitchen and washer/dryer which would come in very handy with small children on a an 8-night trip.
 
This one is a tough decision right now, because we don't know what all will be open in Jan/Feb 2022. If I were to recommend something based on today's offerings, I would probably recommend the Pop/Poly split. If everything is back up and running in Jan/Feb 2022 though, I would probably lean towards recommending WL for the entire trip. With the boats not running between WL and the Campground and the Contemporary, your dining options are more limited right now. But if those boats are back up and running, your easy-access dining options increase a lot. The dining options at AKL are pretty limited right now too.

We do split stays a lot, but it's just me and DH, so we don't have any kiddos to contend with. But we always make our move day a park day. We usually get going a little later in the morning, since check out isn't until 11am. Then we drop our bags with bell services and head out to the park. Since we got a later start in the day, we usually stay at the park until early evening hours and by the time we are ready to leave the park, our room is usually ready.


Note: the trail between WL and the Campgrounds is currently closed.
 
This one is a tough decision right now, because we don't know what all will be open in Jan/Feb 2022.
Yes, it is tricky. Not just the whole resorts that are closed, but the various things within a resort that add to the appeal. I am hoping that by the time discounts are available for early 2022 (maybe this fall?) things will be closer to normal.
 
For your first WDW trip, I would not do a split stay. In addition to having to compromise on the mod part of the split (since it sounds like your real preference is deluxe), and having to figure out your plans for your in-between day, don't forget too that split stays involve two sets of dining reservations you have to make. If they are still doing 60 day reservations then, that makes a huge difference since you lose the advantage of booking for the full trip.

My suggestion is to stay at a deluxe for fewer nights--even if you just drop two nights from 8 to 5 or 6, you'd probably make up the cost difference and then some it because you are not only saving on resort, but on park tickets and meals. 8 nights is a long time for a first trip with kids that young IMO--you may find it results in some burnout and everyone is tired and cranky after 5 days and wants to go home. I know that's like sacrilege on these boards, but we're not representative of everyone who goes to WDW! Plus a shorter first trip will help you sort out what your family likes and doesn't like so if you decide to stay longer on a later trip, that will help with the planning. For example, we learned we really didn't like quick service meals and planned more table service next time. And we also discovered we had big likes and dislikes when it came to resort-to-park transporation, that informed our next choice of hotel.
 

(mostly to avoid renting a car with the hassle of car seats)

Magical Express will not be operational at that point (it goes away as of Jan 1, 2022). So while I am with you in not renting a car, unless you use a service like a Mears bus/van (for a fee), you'd likely still need car seats for a car service/taxi.
 
With kids that age, I would not want to pack up & move. I'd want to stay in 1 hotel the entire time. I'd probably pick WL over AKL WL right now has more restaurants open than AKL does. Plus, you can take a boat to MK. You can also take a boat, I believe, to Fort Wilderness...where you could easily take the kids on a canoe or horseback riding. The WL pool is pretty comparable to the AKL one.
 
Magical Express will not be operational at that point (it goes away as of Jan 1, 2022). So while I am with you in not renting a car, unless you use a service like a Mears bus/van (for a fee), you'd likely still need car seats for a car service/taxi.
Yes, the loss of Magical Express is a bit frustrating. I am sure there are lots of families in the same situation, so I expect some alternatives (Disney or otherwise) to be available when Magical Express goes. We'll see how pricey it ends up being - I would really like to avoid dragging car seats through the airport, and I don't mind paying a premium for the trip overall because of that, but at a certain price point I would have to reassess that!
 
My advice is book an AoA family suite but switch to POFQ if that opens before your trip.
I would really like if POFQ was open by then! Interestingly, I just checked moderates for my dates and standard rooms at CBR weren't available. I am sure that's not permanent and things will change as people move reservations around, but there does seem to be a fair amount of rooms booked at moderates so maybe that is a hopeful sign for POFQ.
 












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