MK Park Phases around Xmas

Leading up to? Not often. The days between Christmas to New Years? There's usually a much higher risk of closure at MK.
 
We were there last year at Christmas time the week leading up to Christmas and really didn't notice a huge difference in crowd levels until Christmas Eve, which was the day we left after being there a week. They got to some level of closure, I don't remember which, but not a full closure.
 
Not often at all. You'll be fine.

The last phase 4 closure within the last 10 years was at MK on April 7th, 2009
 

A lot of people think Disney parks reach full closures on Christmas, NYE, July 4th, and Christmas week...but it's usually rare for it to go above a phase 2 closure.

And just to note..AP's and resort guests are still allowed in up until a full phase 4 closure
 

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