Mission Space is a Tier 1 FP+

[rteetz]

Do those festivals appeal to the Frozen crowds though? I see that as mostly families with young kids.

Maybe Disney could add more characters. Or something.

They appeal to the parents. The ride will appeal to the kids.

 

[Planogirl]

They appeal to the parents. The ride will appeal to the kids.

OK, now I picture parents whining while in a 2 hour line to ride Frozen and then kids whining while their parents look at flowers.

 

[Mac30188]

Well there are two problems. Before Frozen opens but after Soarin closes there is similar crowds spread over a smaller number of attractions. All attractions will feel this pain with Test Track taking the brunt. To me this is the worst time because you have high waits for a diminished entertainment options.

After Frozen opens, you are bringing in crowds and also spreading existing crowd over a new attraction. Assuming Frozen is a tier 1, this actually should make test track better but will more than likely have a negative impact on Nemo/Imagination/Crush. Overall crowds go up, but a lot will just congregate at Norway. The ultimate incarnation of the Frozen problem could be you have to rope off Norway and control the crowds ability to get even make it to Norway. I doubt it will be that bad, but it is certainly something Disney should be formulating a response plan.

Once Soarin opens, you will have relief on all the Tier 1 rides (including Frozen), but the tier 2 rides will be permanently impacted in a similar fashion as MK tier 2 attractions standby lines have ballooned.

 

[skier_pete]

There's a problem with "Test Track will take the brunt of it". That assumption is that everyone that rides Soarin will ride Test Track instead. However, I don't think that is a valid assumption. In fact, there's a good chance that the people that are riding Soarin' also already ride Test Track.

What will likely happen is this:
- Test Track FP+ will be in higher demand (I.E. they will sell out faster).
- Because the Option of Soarin' and Test Track will be gone - people will pull other FP+, making those other FPs more likely to be used
- When the park opens, the line at Test Track will be spiked higher initially as people all rush there.
- However, the lines will only build to a certain point. Standby lines for TT may get slightly long, but again I don't know that people that were riding Soarin' will necessarily be going here - as my bet is a lot of them were already going here.
- The distribution of riders from Soarin will likely distribute fairly evenly across the other rides, between FP+ and increased Standby.

I found this data below show Operational capacity and Daily Capacity (12 hour day) for the rides at Epcot.

OHRC Daily Capacity
Soarin 1440 17280
Test Track 1080 12960
M: Space 1440 17280
SSE 2160 25920
JII 1980 23760
The Seas 1980 23760
The Land 1440 17280
Totals 11,520 138,240

Soarin accounts for 12.5% of the daily capacity of Epcot. (Note this doesn't even include Ellen's Energy Adventure or Mexico Boat Ride.) If you distribute those riders fairly evenly, that adds about 3,000 riders to each ride. Many of those will end up on the standby line.

Many of these rides have very short standby lines on normal operating days, and often don't "sell out" of FP+, and often don't ride at capacity.
Distributing riders amongst the other rides will actually have the biggest effect on the moderately popular rides. M:S, SSE and The Seas will likely see a significant effect - where you might normally see a 20 minute standby line - the increased # of FP+ plus the increased standby might give you 40-60 minute waits instead. M:S will actually likely see the most significant hit, as people who won't be able to get a Tier 1 for Test Track will go to M:S instead, causing longer FP+ lines and MUCH longer standby lines.

When Frozen opens, the biggest shift will be away from M:S, as they might leave it as a tier 1 until Soarin' opens, but the focus of FP+ selection will be on Test Track and Frozen. However, the increase capacity of Frozen will likely be eaten up by the extra people entering the park just for the Frozen experience, keeping all the standby lines longer.

That's just my opinion of course.

 

[Mac30188]

I like the analysis. The only question this pops in my mind is the average wait time. Most people look at a ride compare it to the wait and decide whether it is a good investment of time. Due to Soarin being a good attraction, there were quite a few people who considered a 45 minute to an hour wait to ride Soarin, a good investment. Those same people may look at the Land and decide that waiting 1 hour to ride The Land is not a good investment. The crowds probably won't quite spread equally. Worse yet, those people who no longer spend an hour to ride Soarin have a good chunk of time to fill and may ride multiple tier 2 rides to make up for Soarin being gone. Rides that are 10 minute waits now could quickly turn into 30 minute waits with the idea two of these rides = 1 Soarin standby guest. Therefore its impact may feel slightly worse than a straight capacity adjustment since the standby line and Soarin is such a massive time sink.

 

[soniam]

OK, now I picture parents whining while in a 2 hour line to ride Frozen and then kids whining while their parents look at flowers.

Alcohol, in moderation, can help with the whining parents. It might help with the whining kids too Just kidding.

 

[skier_pete]

I like the analysis. The only question this pops in my mind is the average wait time. Most people look at a ride compare it to the wait and decide whether it is a good investment of time. Due to Soarin being a good attraction, there were quite a few people who considered a 45 minute to an hour wait to ride Soarin, a good investment. Those same people may look at the Land and decide that waiting 1 hour to ride The Land is not a good investment. The crowds probably won't quite spread equally. Worse yet, those people who no longer spend an hour to ride Soarin have a good chunk of time to fill and may ride multiple tier 2 rides to make up for Soarin being gone. Rides that are 10 minute waits now could quickly turn into 30 minute waits with the idea two of these rides = 1 Soarin standby guest. Therefore its impact may feel slightly worse than a straight capacity adjustment since the standby line and Soarin is such a massive time sink.

Yes - I had to simplify for the most part - but from a statistical standpoint, it will spread rather evenly. Remember it is all relative. When I went in early September waits were basically zero, most everything at Epcot was a walk-on while we were there, yet Soarin kept a 90 minute wait. If LwtL suddenly had a 45 minute wait, we wouldn't have waited. HOWEVER, if its the busy season all the ride waits are longer then people will be more likely to wait in longer lines. I suppose there's a breaking point for these things. Myself, I haven't waited in a line longer than 20 minutes in YEARS, so the idea of waiting 90 minutes in line for anything at WDW seems ludicrous to me.

 

[Planogirl]

I would think that you'd have to look at the capacity for Frozen too. If it remains the same as Maelstrom then that capacity would only be 900 if the reports are accurate. If this ride is suddenly swamped with way more people then the lines could be interesting to say the least. Some may balk at waiting in too long a line and then what do they do? Ride Test Track single rider?

 

[rteetz]

I would think that you'd have to look at the capacity for Frozen too. If it remains the same as Maelstrom then that capacity would only be 900 if the reports are accurate. If this ride is suddenly swamped with way more people then the lines could be interesting to say the least. Some may balk at waiting in too long a line and then what do they do? Ride Test Track single rider?

Well the boats are the same capacity as far as I know. The biggest difference in ride layout is the times the load and unload station. Many people are expecting very long lines.

 

[Planogirl]

Well the boats are the same capacity as far as I know. The biggest difference in ride layout is the times the load and unload station. Many people are expecting very long lines.

It really worries me because the café is a favorite. I wonder how hard it will be to get to anything in Norway.

 

[adam.adbe]

I would think that you'd have to look at the capacity for Frozen too. If it remains the same as Maelstrom then that capacity would only be 900 if the reports are accurate. If this ride is suddenly swamped with way more people then the lines could be interesting to say the least. Some may balk at waiting in too long a line and then what do they do? Ride Test Track single rider?

I'd imagine the capacity will drop slightly, given that they're supposedly adding an extra scene at the [edit]beginning[/edit], and I doubt they'll be running the boats faster.

[edit] Thanks rteetz

 

[rteetz]

Most of the damage wont be during the busy period though. I'd argue that by mid-May when we can assume RoL, and FEA will be drawing


I'd imagine the capacity will drop slightly, given that they're supposedly adding an extra scene at the end, and I doubt they'll be running the boats faster.

Extra scene is actually at the beginning

 

[adam.adbe]

It really worries me because the café is a favorite. I wonder how hard it will be to get to anything in Norway.

8 AM Akershus Breakfast is going to be the hottest reservation on property for a long time.

 

[Planogirl]

8 AM Akershus Breakfast is going to be the hottest reservation on property for a long time.

Blech. Not a fan but I know this will be true.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Soarin accounts for 12.5% of the daily capacity of Epcot. (Note this doesn't even include Ellen's Energy Adventure or Mexico Boat Ride.) If you distribute those riders fairly evenly, that adds about 3,000 riders to each ride. Many of those will end up on the standby line.

The trouble is, Soarin' is much more than just 12% of Epcot in the mind of most visitors. For families like my in-laws, after checking out most of Epcot once, on their return visits they pretty much ONLY wanted to ride Soarin' because they found Test Track and Mission Space too rough and the other rides too boring.

For my own family, Soarin' and TT are tied at #1 and while we would also ride The Land, Spaceship Earth, Mission Space and Mexico on every trip, these are strictly "one and done" experiences.

So for my non-thrill-loving in-laws, Soarin' is 100% of their ride attraction for Epcot. For my own family it's more like 40% of the rides in the park.

I don't think that riders will be distributed "fairly evenly" while Soarin' is closed. And I don't think that the opening of Frozen Fo' Evah will restore any balance to the park, since many of the people with Frozen FP's will be focused on just that one ride, and the standby wait times will be horrible ... if they even permit a standby line to exist ... remember the experiment with Midway Mania last year? And Frozen is a slow moving boat on a single track with no possible way to increase its capacity. I can't see how with Soarin' down, Epcot is going to be a very happy experience for most non-special-event visitors.

A "cash cow" is supposed to be a nearly-obsolete product whose development is capped ... but for which you have really killer replacement products already in the pipeline, ready to roll out the moment that you stop selling the cash cow. Nice move, Bob. You're about to fall flat on your face between two milking stools. One of which is in China ...

 

[JohnDaleswife]

8 AM Akershus Breakfast is going to be the hottest reservation on property for a long time.

And I bet Disney has already realized this and will be adjusting the price accordingly.

 

[skier_pete]

The trouble is, Soarin' is much more than just 12% of Epcot in the mind of most visitors. For families like my in-laws, after checking out most of Epcot once, on their return visits they pretty much ONLY wanted to ride Soarin' because they found Test Track and Mission Space too rough and the other rides too boring.

I wasn't commenting on Soarin' as a popularity factor - only as a capacity factor. I was more trying to point out that saying "Soarin' closes will mean longer lines at Test Track" as being completely wrong.

You are right in pointing out that some people might not bother with Epcot. But some people, like your in-laws, won't switch to Test Track. If they still come to the park - then they'll go a do something else instead. It's a sad state of Epcot that it can't survive taking one ride out of commission. DHS is approaching that level as well.

 

[Eric Topp]

The bottom line is that the "renovated" TT is not that great of a ride. The old one was better (backstory and the ride is exactly the same with the exception of more stuff to do if you like waiting in line). More concerned at this point with how Soarin' will be "redone" (Puddy with a great view vs. ????). That said, it should be easier to update Soarin' with a new movie but we really love the old one. After two years of the new FP system, the lines are are not any better (last week SSE FP line was longer than the normal line) and the system SEVERELY limits your fun on the parks now as far as our family is concerned. Just returned from a five day trip last week/this week. Park hopping is not even worth your time as everything is gone after 1200 unless you want to ride things like Captain Eo. CM's try to constantly sell the benefits how this system is better than the old system but not buying it given that I could ride "tier 1" rides more than once easily before but not now. I could also get more than one "tier 1" pass. The only thing the new system is good for is if you come to the parks late or in the evening. It is almost like Disney has built the system to the lowest common denominator (i.e. people that cannot plan).

 

[Eoghann]

I'd imagine the capacity will drop slightly, given that they're supposedly adding an extra scene at the [edit]beginning[/edit], and I doubt they'll be running the boats faster.

[edit] Thanks rteetz

Well we're only talking about 30seconds and they could probably offset that by adding a single boat. The only hope for increased capacity would be that the new on/off load is faster than the previous set up. Otherwise throughput is going to be about the same. The extra 30second does help park capacity fractionally because it keeps people either in line or on a ride for slightly longer. But it's such a small difference I don't think it will matter.

The only real issue here is if extra people are going to come to the park specifically to ride this ride.

 

[Eoghann]

You are right in pointing out that some people might not bother with Epcot. But some people, like your in-laws, won't switch to Test Track. If they still come to the park - then they'll go a do something else instead. It's a sad state of Epcot that it can't survive taking one ride out of commission. DHS is approaching that level as well.

I think that factor is vastly overstated on these boards. Most people just don't plan out their visits with that level of precision. They just get up in the morning and say "Epcot today?"