May visitors- check out this crowd blog

[Violetx3]

This is from the UG web site. It seems more in line with crowd expectations that some have been concerned about, but it doesn't look good.


http://www.touringplans.com/CrowdBlog.html

 

[Blondie]

It's a *7* for the first half of our trip and an *8* for the second half.

Since we are going during the big kick off of the 50th celebration, I'm expecting larger than normal crowds for this time of year.

 

[KIRSTIN'S MOMMY]

Oh no! We went from 3's to 7's and 8's!!!! Guess I'll be renewing my subscription to both touringplans.com and tourguidemike!

 

[liznboys]

Whoa! It has 7's and 8's for our trip! Will they change the numbers on here I wonder?: http://www.touringplans.com/BestDays.htm
I like the 3's on that one much better!

 

[CaipiraBob]

This is pretty cool. I've been seeing a lot more posts on crowd expectations and sites that support one another as far as predictions. The good thing here is that we can plan ahead based on those numbers. We aren't really changing our plans per say, but we will be taking measures to make sure we stick to our "routine" a little more closely to ensure we make the most of early hours before the major crowds hit. High volume park rides early, low volume when the crowds hit. We'll get our PS's in order and be on time (lol, yeah that'll happen...not, but we'll be prepared at least. Gameboys for the children and and trip to the bar so the adults are placated while waiting for the table.)

So it'll be crowded. At least we know Disney will be there next year at this rate.

Still, nice to have an idea beforehand. Thanks for the useful info.

 

[debbiedoo]

I am shocked to see that Mem day weeked is in the 5/6 range--May 27th being a 7(my day of arrival)

Only time will tell----I will take that!!

 

[smjj]

Seeing some of the dates and the numbers for them(I.E memorial day being so low), I would take this survery with a grain of salt. Like the political polls, I am sure it has a + or - of several percentage points...smj

 

[fireman17]

We had made our reservations well before we knew of the 50th celebration and when we did find out about it we figured on an increase in crowds.
I not too concerned about it though because we have our plans pretty well laid out. We'll be using FP alot and we are staying for ten days if we miss something we can always return on another day.
You do have to remember it is Disney and it's not going to be empty so we'll deal with the crowds have a great trip, make my kids happy, meet people and bring home som great memories
We are always going to go back anyway.

The countdown continues

14 days until we are at the world

Been There, Done That, Going back YAHOOO!!!

Me, DW, 7, 3, 1

 

[DebbieB]

They used the number of families who registered their dates on the UG database. I don't know if that is an accurate way to predict crowds. People on their site are more likely to be hardcore Disney fans and know to travel when crowds are expected to be lighter. For a time like Memorial Day, more local people may travel to WDW and they may not be a group that would register their dates on the unofficial guide site.

 

[Dementia]

WHOA!! So my days at the parks jumped from a 3 to an 8?????

That's one heck of a jump!!

 

[WaltD4Me]

Geez, yesterday I read the chart on the UG site predicting May 10th, 11th and 12th this year as being a 3 crowd wise too, now this new link has the same days showing as an 8 crowd wise! Memorial Day weekend days only show as 5 and 6...how could early May be more crowded than a summer holiday weekend?

I really can't take these crowd predictions anymore. It's an emotional rollercoaster. Somehow I'm going to have to stop myself from reading these kinds of threads.
__________________

 

[ottawamom]

Like the rest of you I have been on a bit of a crowd level rollercoaster the last few days. I think we all need to take a step back and realize that these are statistical predictions. They are only as good as the input data they are derived from. If the input data is out of wack so will be the output. Plan for the worst case so you are prepared for anything and go and have a good time. Personally, I'm not going to worry too much until Disney increases park hours and adds another Spectromagic parade. That would be a more reliable indicator of something to worry about.

 

[markh]

There are already 1-2 spectro parades every day during the week of the 24th, not sure where they could add more?

 

[bobbiwoz]

Oh well, we have 8's. Should have stayed in WDW for the weekend, we're heading for VB for Memorial weekend!

Bobbi

 

[lentesta]

Markh, thanks for sending the link to this thread.

I know the predictions have changed frequently recently, but it's because we're looking at new data (the trip planner), and old data in new ways. I appreciate all of the comments and suggestions everyone's sent on this topic.

Let's summarize where we're at:

April 17-30

• Using official Magic Kingdom park hours from 2004 and 2005 as a guide, the expected crowd rating would be 6 through 8.

• Using the trip planner data, it varies from 7 to 9.

• Using historical hotel occupancy rates for the same time last year, it varies between 6 and 8.

Official park hours are a rough estimate, as Disney usually closes the park on the hour or half-hour. Hotel occupancy rates are usually given to the tenth of a percent, and the trip planner data is actual numbers.

Okay, so the numbers range from 6 to 9 depending on the day. Nothing's saying the next two weeks are going to be a bunch of 3's, which is something (it's something, right? ) On the other hand, it's not Christmas, either (but it's close). This might be as close as we get to an estimate, until we know what the actual crowd conditions were two weeks from now. Let's hope (seriously) we get consistent weather for the next two weeks, so we don't have to factor that out.

May 1-7

• Last year's hotel occupancy rates indicate 5 all week. Doesn't take into account the 50th celebration.

• Trip planner says 7s and 8s.

• MK is open 86 hours, a solid 5 on the scale.

Again, nothing lower than a 5, with a couple of indications it may be higher. Another mitigating factor for that week is that Epcot's closed one day after 3, so crowds will probably either stay away (if they don't have park hopping options on their tix), or head to the MK after 3.

So that's where we're at, I think. Thoughts? Suggestions? Comments?

Len

 

[KIRSTIN'S MOMMY]

Thanks Len! That makes me feel a little better. My dates jumped from 3's to 7's and 8's, but I just subscribed to your touring plans site (again!) so hopefully you guys will help me figure it out!

 

[markh]

Here is a poll I started -

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=793316

 

[2timer]

I am shocked to see that Mem day weeked is in the 5/6 range--May 27th being a 7(my day of arrival)

Only time will tell----I will take that!!

we went to wdw on year ON memorial day and it was so nice and quiet...maybe it will happen this year too!

 

[DisneyBaby2004]

Len,
I have a question, when you say that you are using the Trip Planner in your config. the numbers, are you using the info from the (free) trip planner on your website? This isn't actual data that people will be attending the parks but just what if's - correct? I know I have used this and other websites to just test the software. I am sure that a majority of people using the trip planner may go but is your info based on all the inputs in the trip planner? sorry so long... My husband is going nuts with me changing plans.
Thanks
Bee

 

[ottawamom]

Thanks Len for all your hard work. You've certainly been working overtime this weekend. I'm glad you revised the crowd level numbers upwards early on. It certainly caught our attention. This way we are forwarned and able to plan for the worst. But it is Disney afterall and I'm sure everyone will have a wonderful time.