Marathon Weekend Weather

[cewait]

Hmmm, what to pack, what to pack...pacing around here.

Lily when you figure it out let me know please. I went from 100% on what I was taking to a list that might not leave room for park clothes and my smiley is kinda this and yet kinda that

I was telling Mary DW that it depends what day we leave. Since Accuweather has this every other day cold then just cooler than normal thing working we need to leave on the just cooler than normal day. That way we lock that forecast in!

 

[DianeL]

Charles, I'm happy with the weather now. This morning I swore I saw that 4 letter R word on almost every day but thankfully not Sat/Sun. Grant it I was really sleepy so might have typed in the wrong city but I don't thinks so LOL

I would be a bit happier if the non-race days were a tad warmer though. As long as no "Rxxx".

My entire day my thoughts bounced between work, weather, work, Rxxx (i refuse to spell it out!) work, race clothes, work, weather and round and round again we go what it will do no one knows Please excuse me I'm super taper mad Does anyone know when this weird twitching thing will stop? Jan 10th perhaps?

 

[cewait]

Well we are now in the 10-day forecasts. Weather madness has set in and we really wonder what Accuweather folks are on. They are continuing with the every other day pattern they have brought their temperatures back to just cooler than normal and added a rain day again with the exception of Sunday.

The trend seems to indicate a normal weekend with a possible front affecting one or two of the days.

Weather Channel
Forecasts were moderating towards normal late in the day yesterday and moved a little warmer overnight.
5k Start – 47F – Hi 64F -
Half Start – 50F -- Hi 72F -
Full Start - 52F -- (Showing a wind shift to the North over Saturday night)

Accuweather
(Holding true to bouncing up and down every other day we gain a few degrees today plus the rain day)
5k Start 45F - Feel Real 41F – Hi 66F
Half Start 50F - Feel Real 42F - - Hi 59F -– Rain during the Night Windy
Full Start 37F - Feel Real 24F -- High 59F – Front comes through Sat Night

Intellicast
5k Start – 46F – Hi 63F
Half Start – 51F - Hi 72F
Full Start – 53F –

As a statistical point the weather service averages are low 50F and hi 71F. Averages since I have been attending (1999) Low 48 and Hi 72

 

[BrianD]

OK, I said I wouldn't, but I'm officially hooked on "weather watch". It certainly seems like they are expecting a front somewhere around marathon weekend. The forecasts here in GA continue to show well below normal temperatures all the way up to next weekend, so I won't be surprised if we are on the chilly side at WDW. Actually that would not be a bad thing, I think, as long as we're not also wet and it's not windy, which is why a front in the area is concerning.

Thanks for the updates, Charles!

 

[Sandy321]

weather.com

Sat
Jan 9

Partly Cloudy
72°
53°
20%
0
Gameday Forecast

I love being able to "obsess" about the weather and packing!!

 

[ultramickeymouse]

Here's what weather.com is showing now. Might be wet for the 1/2!

Thu
Jan 07 Partly Cloudy 65°/48° 0 %

Fri
Jan 08 Cloudy 70°/58° 10 %

Sat
Jan 09 Showers 75°/50° 60 %

 

[ultramickeymouse]

Here is Accuweathers forecast. Rain(and wind) is looking more likely for 1/2.

Friday, Jan 8
A shower in the a.m.; cloudy
Low: 50 °F
High: 66 °F

Saturday, Jan 9
Rain, windy and cooler
Low: 37 °F
High: 59 °F

Sunday, Jan 10
Times of clouds and sun
Low: 40 °F
High: 59 °F

 

[luvsTink]

the difference in temps between the services is crazy!

Also, I am giving the evil eye to the r word. A light mist, fine... otherwise ewwwww

 

[ultramickeymouse]

I don't worry about the forecast until the night before the races. I bring clothes for all options.

I just like to see how off these extended forecasts ultimately will be

 

[MaryJ]

I ran in that downpour at EE, but at least it was warm!

Not a big fan of rain and cold.

 

[BrianD]

Quick question for you vets...has the Disney Marathon (or Half) ever been delayed/postponed due to weather? What are the most extreme the conditions have ever been for the race?

 

[cewait]

Quick question for you vets...has the Disney Marathon (or Half) ever been delayed/postponed due to weather? What are the most extreme the conditions have ever been for the race?

No weather delays since 99. We were delayed one year due to a traffic snafu.

Here is the link to the historical temps

http://disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2353327

Of these the worst conditions were as follows

Wet
2002 - It rained - scratch that - it was a deluge. Sopping wet for me from about mile 7 on. As I recall it rained off and on for a good 20-30 minutes. Though I did dry the weather for the remainder was muggy. I did not know the parks actually puddle as badly as they do.

Hot
2007 marathon – We started at 67F and near 100% humidity. It was near 80 when I finished just after noon It cost me an Ipod (never thought that pouring water over my head would kill it), and over 80 minutes added to my marathon time. I was fortunate as I slowed drastically to the 6+ marathon. I was moving at a sub 5 for about half the race. I saw the start of the great water bust of 07. They were beginning to fold up water table as I passed still well within a sub 6 run. The 16 minute folks were screwed.

Cold
2001 was the coldest start but the wind was calm. It is really a tie between 03 and 06. The wind was howling in 03. The temps do not do the bite of the wind justice. The front came in overnight as I recall and the winds just cut through you. I was fortunate as Mears Bus had a snafu at the resort I was staying at so I was sheltered from the wind until about 5:30. We arrived at the parking lot at 5:30 and had just enough time to drop baggage, potty and get in the corral. 06 was just cold. There was a wind. I did not pull my throw away shirt off at all during the half. During the full, folks backs were frosting over on the stretch from Epcot Dr to the MK Parking. I pulled my throw down shirt off at mile 10. I have my gloves and headband on in my AK photo. As I recall, I dropped my gloves and band at mile 17 where I saw my wife. I came back to the villa post marathon and took a hot bath just to warm.

 

[cewait]

Weather Channel and Intellicast are reacting to a possible front arriving EARLY on marathon day. This AM Accuweather had the front through on Saturday night pre-start. We are not fully into the 10day outlook for Weather and Intellicast and I would expect some movement in these services forecasts as the race days get into the 10 day window.

While temps are spread and chances of rain vary by site, the afternoon adjustments have the three forecasts aligning.


Weather Channel
5k Start – 47F – Hi 68F -
Half Start – 56F -- Hi 73F – (Showers thru the day - 60% Chance)
Full Start - 49F -- (Showing a wind shift to the North over Saturday night)

Accuweather (Only updated daily so same as this AM)
5k Start 45F - Feel Real 41F – Hi 66F
Half Start 50F - Feel Real 42F - - Hi 59F -– Rain during the Night Windy
Full Start 37F - Feel Real 24F -- High 59F – Front comes through Sat Night

Intellicast
5k Start – 47F – Hi 68F
Half Start – 57F - Hi 73F (60% chance of showers overnight into the day)
Full Start – 50F –

As a statistical point the weather service averages are low 50F and hi 71F. Averages since I have been attending (1999) Low 48 and Hi 72

 

[Sandy321]

Getting down on my knees and pray "no R... no R..."
TIA Dear Lord!!

 

[Tiger Lily 03]

Amen.

 

[marathonmommy]

No weather delays since 99. We were delayed one year due to a traffic snafu.

Here is the link to the historical temps

http://disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2353327

Of these the worst conditions were as follows

Wet
2002 - It rained - scratch that - it was a deluge. Sopping wet for me from about mile 7 on. As I recall it rained off and on for a good 20-30 minutes. Though I did dry the weather for the remainder was muggy. I did not know the parks actually puddle as badly as they do.

Hot
2007 marathon – We started at 67F and near 100% humidity. It was near 80 when I finished just after noon It cost me an Ipod (never thought that pouring water over my head would kill it), and over 80 minutes added to my marathon time. I was fortunate as I slowed drastically to the 6+ marathon. I was moving at a sub 5 for about half the race. I saw the start of the great water bust of 07. They were beginning to fold up water table as I passed still well within a sub 6 run. The 16 minute folks were screwed.

Cold
2001 was the coldest start but the wind was calm. It is really a tie between 03 and 06. The wind was howling in 03. The temps do not do the bite of the wind justice. The front came in overnight as I recall and the winds just cut through you. I was fortunate as Mears Bus had a snafu at the resort I was staying at so I was sheltered from the wind until about 5:30. We arrived at the parking lot at 5:30 and had just enough time to drop baggage, potty and get in the corral. 06 was just cold. There was a wind. I did not pull my throw away shirt off at all during the half. During the full, folks backs were frosting over on the stretch from Epcot Dr to the MK Parking. I pulled my throw down shirt off at mile 10. I have my gloves and headband on in my AK photo. As I recall, I dropped my gloves and band at mile 17 where I saw my wife. I came back to the villa post marathon and took a hot bath just to warm.

2003 - I remember absolutely freezing at the start line. Couldn't be layered up enough!

2005 - Hot as heck! Salt crystals formed on my arms - nauseous awfulness!

 

[Sandy321]

That does it - I'm goint to buy some of those hand and foot warmers at Walgreens!!

(Murphy - I'm going to be ready for you - buying ponchos, rain gear, hand warmers, umbrella to throwaway from the $1 store!!! FI I say to Murphy's Law - I will BE PREPARED!! yes Im a Scouter! )

 

[RENThead09]

DOLLAR STORE!!!! Thank you so much for mentioning that. I may have to make a quick trip before the flight to see what supplies they have.

Weather.com is saying rain. At least there is no blizzard scheduled for my stopover in Chicago!

 

[ultramickeymouse]

New weather forecast:

Weather.com

Fri
Jan 08 Cloudy 68°/53° 10 %

Sat
Jan 09 Showers 70°/46° 60 %

Sun
Jan 10 AM Clouds / PM Sun 67°/49° 20 %

Accuweather.com


Friday, Jan 8
Rain
Low: 37 °F
High: 62 °F

Saturday, Jan 9
Sunny intervals
Low: 39 °F
High: 59 °F

Sunday, Jan 10
Mostly sunny
Low: 40 °F
High: 59 °F

Notice how similar they are ???

 

[cewait]

Weather Channel and Intellicast are reacting to a possible front arriving on Saturday now while Accuweather moved the front up a day also to Friday.

The three forecasts are aligning. While Weather and Intellicast are off the same model Accuweather is not far off. As a note all days the wind is out of the NW for all forecasts. I only mention wind when above 10 MPH in the forecast. You can see that that Accuweather has wind on all three mornings due to the drop in Feel Real Temps.


Weather Channel
5k Start – 45F – Hi 67F - Wind turns NW
Half Start – 52F -- Hi 69F – 60% Chance Showers (NW Wind)
Full Start - 45F – Hi 66F – Sun NW Wind

Accuweather
5k Start 48F - Feel Real 41F – Hi 62F (Rain) – front moves up a day
Half Start 37F - Feel Real 26F - - Hi 59F
Full Start 39F - Feel Real 31F -- Hi 59F

Intellicast
5k Start – 46F – Hi 66F
Half Start – 52F - Hi 68F - 60% chance of showers – Wind NW
Full Start – 47F – Hi 65F

As a statistical point the weather service averages are low 50F and hi 71F. Averages since I have been attending (1999) Low 48 and Hi 72