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Marathon Weekend 2026

A word on rain in forecasts for this time of year from a Floridian, because I always see much confusion on the topic…

The “it only rains for an hour or so in the afternoons!” adage refers to summer storms that are created by rising heat and coastal breezes meeting and hot Gulf waters and cooler Atlantic waters and other meteorological phenomena pertaining to summer.

Rain in winter is something else entirely. This is our dry season: rain almost always only comes when connected to a front. It can be a weak front that barely drops temps at all, or a strong front that crashes us into freezing weather, or anything in between. And fronts can come with a little rain, a ton of rain, or no rain at all. Seeing the potential for a front to dip into FL is relatively easy - but just how much it might impact weather (i.e. temps and rain) is the really tricky part and is why forecasts more than a few days out are SO unreliable.

Even when a forecast looks solid and every outlet is repeating the same thing, it can be wrong. See MW 2017, when we spent the week or so before thinking we’d have a very hot marathon because EVERY forecasting outlet was indicating that… and instead, a very strong front blew in with extreme wind and rain that canceled the half and left us with frigid weather for the full.

I’m not saying don’t look at forecasts at all: I know they're good for passing some taper time! But do keep in mind that rain in a forecast this time of year is a total carpshoot: there might be a little, a lot, or none at all and you really won’t have a handle on it until day-of.

What I’m saying is this: ALWAYS BRING THE RAIN GEAR! I don’t care what the forecast shows, it’s ways worth having it handy, just in case.
I always appreciate your Florida weather clarifications!
 

I know most of you will disagree with me, but I'm kind of fangirling over wunderground's forecast for next week.

Screenshot 2025-12-30 090034.png
 
Not cold enough!
I agree that it could be a little cooler for the HM, and possibly the M, but considering that the high temperature is usually mid-afternoon, I'm OK with the the forecasted highs.

Accuweather is showing slightly cooler temps leading up to the weekend, and then warmer than wunderground for Saturday/Sunday.
 


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