So, I wanted to update this thread with some more current info.
As of Sunday, Sept. 12 at 10am, here are the dates without Magic Key availability:
Today is sold out.
Next weekend, Sept. 18/19, is completely sold out.
Saturday, 9/25 is completely sold out.
Saturday, 10/2 is DCA-start only.
Sunday, October 31 is DCA-start only (and has been for at least a couple of days).
Trends so far:
- DL-start reservations sell out before DCA. So you'll see a day lose DL reservations (like 10/2, above) before it sells out completely.
- Saturdays are the most popular booking, and they are steadily creeping forward in how soon they sell out. Sundays and Fridays are the other days that have had sell-outs (Fridays have so far had some DCA availability in the morning). There hasn't been a Monday-Thursday sell-out yet that I've seen, although I think a few days have been "DCA-start only" by the end of the day. (However, since you can hop after 1, you could grab one of those at 4pm and head into DL anyway, so I don't think that really counts.)
- There IS decent movement on "sold out" reservations popping back up. I've seen a lot of that around the 10-11pm range, even days in advance. Having said that, there's not as much movement as I expected (hoped for?), and there has never been day-of inventory added (at least, not so far). At least once, Disney appeared to add a large batch of reservations on a Tuesday, but I haven't noticed that happen again.
Anyway, that's the current state of "how available are reservations?" I'd sum it up thusly: If you want to go on a Saturday or holiday, you need to book a few weeks out, or stalk for cancellations. If you want to go on a Friday/Sunday, you want to book at least a week or so out (or stalk). If you want to go on a weekday, you can grab those day-of for now.
I'm curious how this will evolve, and also how fast Christmas will go when we get to it...