Lower birth rates and the future of those BIG HOUSES?

[kdonnel]

Homes are getting bigger and bigger here in Metro Atlanta.

The neighborhoods being built around me are all advertising 5 bedrooms as a selling point.

The infill houses being built around here, the ones that all look like something Joanna Gaines would build, white painted brick and black trim, are even larger in the 6 or 7 bedroom size.

What I have seen is a massive rise in neighborhoods being built as rental only. I believe Atlanta is leading the country in number of homes owned by investment companies and number of rental only neighborhoods being constructed. Those are all also 5 bedrooms.

I think big homes are here to stay.

 

[KayKayJS]

We only have 1 child and with 2,400 sqft (3 bedrooms, office, loft/playroom) this house is just about perfect size. Every single room in this house gets use regularly. The 3rd bedroom is our guest room and my mom visits regularly.

However, when/if we move we will be looking for at least one additional bedroom. We'd like an additional office/guest room space because we both WFH.

 

[SandyinMonterey]

We went from a 1400 square foot ranch in California to a 7500 square foot home in the South East. We are a family of 3. Yes, it's a big house but knew when we saw it that it was the one. We have been updating/remodeling since moving in 9 years ago. Surprisingly we use a lot of the space. I know there will come a time to down size . We do have a nice size bedroom and bathroom on the main floor which can be used as a master if need be.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I don't think houses will necessarily get smaller. Larger houses with bedrooms aren't always used as bedrooms so going in with the thought that only people with young kids are wanting multi-bedroom larger homes is just frankly too old school for modern times.

Is there effect somewhere? Sure. One of the elementary schools in the district my house is in is closing down but being repurposed due to less children in that immediate area but that's not new it's where the populations shift and move within an area and at the moment it's pushing more westward in my city. That said there is a decline in birth rates that will/can cause pockets of areas where fewer people throughout the years are being replaced with new individuals but that I don't think will have an effect on larger homes being seen as desirable.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

A bigger problem in my area is open floor plan regret. People seem to going back to preferring rooms on the first floor rather than the decorating and privacy issues which can be an issue with open concept. Maybe that's a regional change.

I think people still want some openness to their floor plan. What they don't want any more if they ever really did is one big room with the kitchen in some corner somewhere that you can see from everywhere in the house not named bedroom or bathroom.

 

[Disneylover99]

It's not always a matter of finances. Here in Calgary my company builds 500+ new units per year and our customer base is now 60% first or second generation Canadians, predominantly from Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Most of them start out with a lot (by our standards) of people living together in very modest homes which one would assume they're doing to get everybody a financial toe-hold and then acquire their own single-family homes. Nope - that is not their goal, not at all. When they have the means they buy bigger, better houses in nicer areas where they can all continue to live together because this is their cultural norm and it will never change. And many smaller families buying our bigger product are not doing it with an eye towards expanding their own family with a lot of children. The plan is to be able to accommodate many other family members who are also trying to make it to Canada.

I definitely agree. It’s mostly the multi generational families from Southeast Asia and the Middle East in my area who are buying the new builds with 5+ bedrooms.

I do find that some of the younger Canadian couples in those families do wish they could break free from this tradition and have some independence of their own, but it’s not easy for them. There are lots of pressures from within the families to stay together.

 

[barkley]

What they don't want any more if they ever really did is one big room with the kitchen in some corner somewhere that you can see from everywhere in the house

that's not the case if you go by any of the house flipping or renovation shows in recent years. I get the idea of 'open concept' but it's so common to see the entire non bedroom/bath area of an existing home gutted of all the separating walls and converted to a single kitchen/living space. kitchen islands have become the focal point of these rooms with the mindset that counter seating makes up for the fact you are left post reno/flip with only enough living space for maybe a couple of chairs or a downsized sofa (loveseat maybe?). it's one thing if you've got a separate living space (den/familyroom/basement) but when it's something like the 1080 or smaller circa '50's build like I grew up in that was extra living space that did'nt exist (and in an area where basements were not possible).

 

[disneycat321]

*deleted*

 

[MillauFr]

so an individual city can't outright restrict but that does'nt override existing local and state health, safety and building codes. in the case of the large city near us there's no reasonable ingress and egress to the lots the city politicians point to as ideal (based on the yard sizes) so a proposed home(s) would'nt meet fire code. the only conceivable means of widening the existing alleys or creating streets from scratch would (I imagine) entail the very costly, time consuming and litigous concept of eminent domain (and then you get into the whole issue of land that is prohibited from building on due to easements from privately owned power companies). the existing water and sewer systems are so old that additional bathrooms (and in many cases bedrooms b/c of perceived increased water usage) have been prohibited for decades so an additional structure could not be permitted for attachment.

I get the spirit of the law when it comes to open undeveloped areas of land (which if I remember correctly is what the cle elum dispute involves) but when it comes to existing older neighborhoods it's very difficult.

Yes Cle Elum gambled and lost. Now they are bankrupt.

 

[georgina]

You are assuming the projection doesn’t change. This is flawed on its face to me as it assumes the cultural makeup doesn’t change and that AI doesn’t start rapidly taking over white collar jobs (which would leaving a chunk of women with not much else to do with their lives).

Can't tell if you meant this as a joke or not, but it's not a nice depiction of women.

If things keep getting worse with the economy I can see people deliberately choosing not to have kids.

 

[CdnCarrie]

Is it common having houses with 4/5 bedrooms?

I look at open houses a lot and watch lots of House Hunters and having more than 3 bedrooms is unusual.
(Besides a 4th in the basement perhaps…)

 

[ralphie]

Added on, now have five bedrooms - we have a revolving door for any of our 5 kids and families. We're in our 70's. This will be the party house for as long as our off-spring can manage.

 

[kdonnel]

Is it common having houses with 4/5 bedrooms?

I look at open houses a lot and watch lots of House Hunters and having more than 3 bedrooms is unusual.
(Besides a 4th in the basement perhaps…)

Watching housing shows on TV makes me think I live in a unicorn home except everyone I know lives in a similar home.

The way people ooh and ahh over an en-suite master bath or walk in closet seems so strange to me.

An old home around me was built in the 90’s so every one has en-suites, walk in closets, open floor plans, and 4 or more bedrooms.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Is it common having houses with 4/5 bedrooms?

I look at open houses a lot and watch lots of House Hunters and having more than 3 bedrooms is unusual.
(Besides a 4th in the basement perhaps…)

I think regional and metro factors heavily influence. The more suburban you are typically the more space and typically the more you'll see larger homes and more opportunities for more bedrooms.

In addition to that new builds tend to have more bedrooms so I would suppose it would depend on how much growth over time is there for any given market. In my county (which is just part of my metro but is the most affluent part) a new build is almost never going to have less than 4-6 bedrooms unless it's maintenance provided or 55+ community as it would be hard to sell for $$$ with just 3 bedrooms for a brand new house. I highly doubt any home in my neighborhood (which has 600+ homes) has any home that only has 3 bedrooms which was first started being built 20 years ago. No one is going to pay 800K-1.5 million in our neighborhood for a new build that has only has 3 bedrooms

For my county in particular 4 bedrooms is the most common for homes listed for sale (last month for recency reasons), significantly less in listings is 3 bedrooms, followed by 5 bedrooms followed by 2 bedrooms. 3 bed 2 bath are highly sought after but that is for existing homes, new builds having only 3 bedrooms is just not desirable in my specific area.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I think people still want some openness to their floor plan. What they don't want any more if they ever really did is one big room with the kitchen in some corner somewhere that you can see from everywhere in the house not named bedroom or bathroom.

I think all new builds here are still predominately open concept. When we built our house in 2014 the builder we went with had us pay out of pocket for certain changes they deemed could make it more difficult to sell should we back out. One of those changes? We moved the single pane gas fireplace from the wall and put it in the middle as a see-through fireplace and added a wall on the side, that was the costliest change we made but it's because I wanted a bit of separation between the kitchen and the great room, I dislike having lights and action all meld into one space but neither do I like homes to be all closed off with so many walls.

If we sell it could be a factor in what potential buyers find attractive as in they may find they don't like the wall..although bonus IMO is that there is a mantle on both sides (facing the kitchen and facing the great room) so from a decor perspective someone might find that part attractive.

This if from the kitchen facing towards the great room early on in the building process so before the mantles were built. Where the wall and fireplace are is where people would normally, in the open concept home, put their couch/sectional. Alternatively we could have put a pass through instead of the full wall but I wanted the wall.

 

[kanerf]

The builders are all going with houses that are 2500 sf or larger and with an average price of $500K with some regional variations. To me these are too large. Gen Z is not very fecund and would do better with houses of about 1200-1600 sf and in the $300K range.

 

[LoveDaisy]

I think larger house will remain popular. My friends kids are now buying houses (they are in their late 20s). Most do not plan to have kids and they all want at least 4 bedrooms. A bedroom for them, a guest bedroom and 2 bedrooms they turn into offices since most wfh full time. They all want giant kitchens. They absolutely refuse to buy a ‘starter home’, which they consider my house to be. My house is 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 2000 square feet on an acre.

I think the expectation of that generation are very different from mine. I was so excited to buy my house and they would rather not own than own my small house. I don’t see any of them settling for a small house.

 

[NotUrsula]

FWIW, I don't see a situation where young Americans *prefer* not to have children; it is more that they are convinced that they cannot afford to have children. I am finally, after 28 years of a minor child at home, about to have an empty nest. We were incredibly lucky that we were able to pay off our home by the time our first child was born (1100 sq. ft, purchased for $79K in 1993), because if we had had a mortgage AND children to support on our salaries, our standard of living would be much lower.

Fast forward to now; two years of youngest DD's college tuition will equal what we paid for our home. She's a pretty expensive kid because she competes in an expensive sport, but the degree to which the cost of living has changed since I was in my 20s is insane. I went to a state flagship school, graduated in 3 years, and paid the princely sum of $5K in tuition for my BA. (My employer paid for my Master's.) DD is majoring in architecture; I just spent more on her required studio supplies than I paid for 2 years of my tuition.

Our home is not in particularly spiffy shape at the moment because of child-related expenses we have had for the past several years, so it isn't worth as much as some in our neighborhood, but it is still worth 4X what we paid for it. Which means that we cannot afford to sell it, because we're too close to retirement to take on a mortgage again, and we could not pay cash for anything equivalent for the amount we would net.

I firmly believe that a Federally-subsidized child care system such as we had during WW2 is the only way that the US is going to raise the birth rate to any appreciable degree. It also would not hurt to come up with some programs to help people who have children buy their own homes, as that is one of the big dilemmas: have a child or save for a home?

PS: For those unfamiliar with the Federal child care system that once existed, here is a short summary: https://conversableeconomist.com/2024/10/28/the-national-childcare-program-during-world-war-ii/

 

[CdnCarrie]

The builders are all going with houses that are 2500 sf or larger and with an average price of $500K with some regional variations. To me these are too large. Gen Z is not very fecund and would do better with houses of about 1200-1600 sf and in the $300K range.

I think larger house will remain popular. My friends kids are now buying houses (they are in their late 20s). Most do not plan to have kids and they all want at least 4 bedrooms. A bedroom for them, a guest bedroom and 2 bedrooms they turned not offices since most wfh full time. They all want giant kitchens. They absolutely refuse to buy a ‘starter home’, which they consider my house to be. My house is 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 2000 square feet on an acre.

I think the expectation of that generation are very different from mine. I was so excited to buy my house and they would rather not own than own my small house. I don’t see any of them settling for a small house.

I don’t see anything remotely similar here.
New builds are still 1200-1800 on average.

Young people are buying starter homes that are affordable.

 

[tvguy]

Their best hope now is to let go of the immediate dream of the 5 bedroom house in suburbia with a triple car garage and a big yard and start out in an apartment condo somewhere. 1,000 ft.sq. modest single-family starter homes are really just not being built anymore.

LOL. You sound like a real estate developer. Those 1,000 square foot condos are HUGE with builders here. Proposals come out, with a percentage of the units designed as "affordable units" But sometime after the project is approved, and the time the complex gets built, those unis get amended out of the project. Within the city limits some units are even being built with NO parking in areas where on street parking Cram a bunch on very little land, well them for $450,000-$500,000. Throw in crazy high HOA fees for little more than a gardener to cut a little lawn in the public areas and blow leaves. I just have to wonder if in the future THOSE are going to be impossible to sell.