Len? - Best Days jumped from 4 and 5 to 7

[DizBelle]

Does anyone know what factors made the rating for early November jump from mostly 4's and a few 5's to 7's?

 

[Goofy4]

Recent changes? They changed their formula a few months back. You might find something here: http://www.touringplans.com/CrowdBlog.html

 

[QuickGold]

It's all part of the Unofficial Guide's formula for figuring it out.

 

[QT Pooh]

I've read from one of Len's posts that they factor in Orlando hotel occupancy levels to determine crowd levels??? I find this surprising that conventioners who had to be moved from New Orleans to Orlando would make that much of a difference in Disney attendance though (as I'm positive that this has a direct effect on the hotel occupancy rates). I guess there's no low volume days anymore.

 

[dizplanner]

My guess is the conventioners don't, but UG didn't change their formulas to account for the special situation. (i.e. if occupency is x -> crowd = y. Well, occupency is higher than normal due to moved conventions. Won't effect parks much, but UG used same formula. In other words, don't panic.

 

[DizBelle]

Len? Are you out there? Do you care to comment?

 

[lentesta]

Heidy-ho!

Yes, hotel occupancy is factored into the crowd levels, along with daily and weekly park hours, and a couple other things. For November, I think it was when Disney posted actual daily and weekly park hours that provided the biggest part of the jump.

That being said, the crowd predictions we've been making seem to be about 10 minutes higher than what we're actually seeing, at least over the last two weeks. I don't yet have the hotel occupancy results from the last 14 days, so I don't know if that played into the lower waits. But I've asked our statistician to see if there's some other variable (like public school being in session) that we can check for influence. Any ideas on this would be greatly appreciated.

I don't see any huge differences in conventions, but I'll go back and check.

Len

 

[ScoJo15]

we had 5's and 6's pegged for our trip from 9/18 through 9/24, and walked on to every single ride (except for Soarin, which was 30 minutes max)

 

[DizBelle]

Len is "The Man".... I look forward to hearing what your statistician has to say.

 

[eeyore45]

I like the more "realistic" or the new way you are formulating crowd levels!!

I'm thinking with Columbus Day, Food and WIne, and MNSSHP plus the many posts from Dis'ers on Who's going in October, it will be managable, but not walk ons!! I feel its best to be prepared!!