July direct sales

[Brian Noble]

my main point is that it's the mainly Disboarders (active and passive) accounting for these drastic changes in VGF sales since June.

I would find this exceptionally hard to believe.

Even if the points sold for a net of $165/pt, they did $21M worth of volume at GFV in July---$8M more than in June.

DISboarders are doing better than I'd've thought.

 

[Sandisw]

Every thing you listed could go in favor of RIV over VGF and yet one is massively outselling the other. You have to look for what is the driver. Restrictions are the most obvious choice.

So we forget that last year it was the opposite?

 

[tom1944]

This opinion ignores all of the other variables that can impact a purchase decision and is also short on any actual evidence to suggest that it is solely the resale restrictions that are the difference.

It is never solely. That does not mean it is not a drag on sales.

As other WDW resorts have restrictions IMHO it becomes less a drag.

 

[DanCali]

But still RIV outsold VGF last year 4 to 5 months and some of those were 2:1.

Why? It had restrictions. But you actually just made the point that what has boosted sales of VGF is not it’s lack of restrictions but the aggressive incentives of getting current owners in at $161/point.

It's the $161 vs the high resale price (which is related to the lack of restrictions and other things like lower does, MK etc).

If VGF had the same restrictions like RIV, resale prices would not be as high and the incentives would be less attractive. If RIV didn't have the restrictions it does its resale price wouldn't be as low and the incentives would be more attractive. It's still related to the restrictions - and how those affect the resale values.

 

[DanCali]

DISboarders are doing better than I'd've thought.

Looks like it

https://www.disboards.com/threads/dis-dvc-1000-point-club-post-1-updated-02-10-2023.872388/

 

[Brian Noble]

There were 339 additional deeds recorded at GFV in July vs. June. They bought an average of 154 points and change.

Let's say even half of them were active or passive DISboarders, and they jumped on this. You really think that there were 170 people drawn from the broader DISboards community that suddenly decided to drop $25K in one month that would not have otherwise? And that none of them took advantage of the same discounts/magical beginnings/whatever at RIV, where sales were flat from June to July?

I mean, if that's the color the sky is in your world, I guess that's great. But I do not buy it for a second.

Occam would suggest that the Guides had a lot more to do with it. But, I've said my piece, so feel free to have the last word.

 

[Sandisw]

It's the $161 vs the high resale price (which is related to the lack of restrictions and other things like lower does, MK etc).

If VGF had the same restrictions like RIV, resale prices would not be as high and the incentives would be less attractive. If RIV didn't have the restrictions it does its resale price wouldn't be as low and the incentives would be more attractive. It's still related to the restrictions - and how those affect the resale values.

Definitely agree that restrictions have some impact as it’s part of the product.

But, it’s the notion that July differences in sales was because of restrictions at RIV and not that VGF could be had at $161….which is lower when adjusted for inflation than when it went on sale originally.

Since DVD has not attempted to be more aggressive with RIV prices, seems to indicate they are comfortable with its numbers.

Personally, I think what they could be realizing is that having choices for buyers is better for overall sales than just one main active selling resort with the other one in the final stages.

ETA: The other piece is that VGF had a high resale value that was established because it was a sold out resort for many years, and was a small resort. It will be interesting to see if it can hold that moving forward given that it appears getting to stay there at 7 months is no longer difficult

 

[tjkraz]

This doesn't explain the months in which RIV outsold VGF, during which the restrictions were exactly as they are now.

However, I do not think price explains it either. I think the most likely explanation is that Guides are pushing VGF harder than RIV. There are several possibilities as to why. They may have been told to do so. They may have different financial incentives for doing so. There may be other reasons. But, they all come down to one true thing about timeshares: for the most part, they are sold not bought.

Exactly this.

Another factor that's easy to overlook: all of the VGF Big Pine Key rooms have been declared into the condo association. Disney has every reason to sell those VGF points as quickly as possible because they cannot directly profit from unsold points. Even if VGF villas happen to slip through as breakage, Disney has to rent out all 800+ GF hotel rooms before it really profits by putting a cash guest in a VGF DVC Studio.

Meanwhile 1/3 of Riviera is undeclared and Disney has no competing cash inventory at Riviera. Those undeclared points give them a little over 100 rooms to market to cash guests. And despite all of the Riviera slander that's common here, many cash guests actually like the resort.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Keeping prices in the $150-$160 range is much more sane, IMO. I really hope they stop artificially boosting direct prices over $207/$217 for these fake "sales" to have to happen to get it down to the $150 range.

DVC employing the Kohls sales tactic where there's a 20 or 30% coupon every week.

 

[maui22]

It was in the quarterly report, but I did not see it in the call transcript.

My mistake, I edited my post to mention earnings and not the earnings call.

 

[sethschroeder]

Now they have a MK resort and RIV which is not anything. I know they say it’s a Epcot resort but just because they call it that doesn’t mean it is.

Ya okay



Not like Disney doesnt view and price Riviera as a prime deluxe resort or anything.

EDIT: I will say I like RIV with the Skyliner connection more than VGF and using that monorail. Walked a couple times from VGF and its not one you want to do unless you want to be sweating by the time you get to MK because of essentially no shade along the path.

 

[KevDog]

It's the $161 vs the high resale price (which is related to the lack of restrictions and other things like lower does, MK etc).

If VGF had the same restrictions like RIV, resale prices would not be as high and the incentives would be less attractive. If RIV didn't have the restrictions it does its resale price wouldn't be as low and the incentives would be more attractive. It's still related to the restrictions - and how those affect the resale values.

We are just a sample of 1, but I'll tell you our thinking (we purchased in July - 210 points direct VGF - this is our first DVC purchase) - we started considering DVC earlier this year when we knew we were getting some inheritance and thought it was a great way to honor/remember that person. I started researching it to try to decide whether direct or resale would be best. We wanted a longer contract than 2042 so we could pass it down to my son. That narrowed it down to the newer resorts. We liked the idea of direct for FOMO purposes (we want to be a part of the club), but were willing to go resale if the price was crazy different (but $ was certainly not our primary concern). So we narrowed it down to VGF and Riv (sorry, still don't know all the correct abbreviations). After looking at resale we saw that with current discounts VGF direct and resale were very close while there was a pretty big gap for Riviera (we assumed the lower resale price was primarily due to the restrictions). I didn't like the restrictions buying RIV resale. So it became a no brainer for us to go VGF direct. In our minds the direct price between the two were similar enough that we just considered them the same. It gave us some comfort knowing that if we desperately needed to sell then we could sell close to what we bought for (we took advantage of the magical beginning discount).

 

[Nursemanit]

So we forget that last year it was the opposite?

It was slightly outselling not 3:1

 

[Sandisw]

It was slightly outselling not 3:1

RIV Aug 2022 to November 2022 was 334k and VGF was only 204k

Not sure I would say that is slightly. I mean Sept and Oct were each about 87k to 47k alone…which is almost 2:1.

The point is that we can’t dismiss RIV when it does better and then turn around and slam it when it doesn’t.

For at least 4 months in 2022, restrictions were not enough to prevent over a quarter of a million points to be sold.

 

[Nursemanit]

We are just a sample of 1, but I'll tell you our thinking (we purchased in July - 210 points direct VGF - this is our first DVC purchase) - we started considering DVC earlier this year when we knew we were getting some inheritance and thought it was a great way to honor/remember that person. I started researching it to try to decide whether direct or resale would be best. We wanted a longer contract than 2042 so we could pass it down to my son. That narrowed it down to the newer resorts. We liked the idea of direct for FOMO purposes (we want to be a part of the club), but were willing to go resale if the price was crazy different (but $ was certainly not our primary concern). So we narrowed it down to VGF and Riv (sorry, still don't know all the correct abbreviations). After looking at resale we saw that with current discounts VGF direct and resale were very close while there was a pretty big gap for Riviera (we assumed the lower resale price was primarily due to the restrictions). I didn't like the restrictions buying RIV resale. So it became a no brainer for us to go VGF direct. In our minds the direct price between the two were similar enough that we just considered them the same. It gave us some comfort knowing that if we desperately needed to sell then we could sell close to what we bought for (we took advantage of the magical beginning discount)

It was 2:1 for a few of those months. I don’t consider that slightly.

And we have only one month of 3:1.

The point is that we can’t dismiss RIV when it did better by a decent amount and then turn around and slam it when it doesn’t.

This has nothing to do with the resort - I am blaming restrictions not the resort. Disney is losing money and sales on them.

The case quoted above is another example of restrictions killing RIV sales

 

[Sandisw]

This has nothing to do with the resort - I am blaming restrictions not the resort. Disney is losing money and sales on them.

The case quoted above is another example of restrictions killing RIV sales

And they have lost sales when people chose resale over direct too. Or those who are not buying VDH due to the TOT.

Again, no one says that restrictions don’t play some role, but the numbers don’t change.

It sold better than VGF for many months…which means plenty of buyers overlooked restrictions.

ETA: What July sales show is that appropriate pricing can increase overall direct sales whether resorts have restrictions or not.

 

[tjkraz]

This has nothing to do with the resort - I am blaming restrictions not the resort. Disney is losing money and sales on them.

The case quoted above is another example of restrictions killing RIV sales

The question isn't how many people aren't buying Riviera because of the restrictions. The question is how many people are buying direct instead of resale because of the restrictions.

The post you quoted did not buy Riviera because of the restrictions, but did buy points direct from DVC. And now has points that can be used at Riviera, VDH and every future restricted resort. It's not worth examining how much weight every single buyer gives to that aspect. But the restrictions give direct purchases a boost that resale simply cannot match.

 

[davidhr]

Another “sample of 1”.

I wanted to add more points and was still undecided if I wanted to wait for Poly 2 or buy now. As soon as the current incentives were rolled out, I reached my guide a completed a purchase at….. Riviera!

My point is you can find examples of all the opinions mentioned here. People that care about restrictions and bought VGF, and people like me that couldn’t care less about the resale impact of restrictions and bought Riviera even if it was slightly more expensive.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

What Brian is talking about is historically spot on for determining where sales occur beyond the initial opening of sales at a new resort although in a way that might apply as well. It seems odd to the community here but the majority of sales are to people who are at Disney having a great vacation and get pulled in by the magic. They'll have done little or no research and really will be led by the guide. And what resort is 1st on the presentation is determined by DVC. Then if that doesn't close a sale they'll switch gears for a lower priced report or a location that has been picked up on from the potential buyers.

When it comes to selling to existing owners or the uber researchers it gets more complicated. In that case though I'd still give an edge to pricing with a caveat that I do think Riv resale restrictions are more accounted for in that case and won't overcome a smaller gap in pricing but may be overcome with a larger discount.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The question isn't how many people aren't buying Riviera because of the restrictions. The question is how many people are buying direct instead of resale because of the restrictions.

The post you quoted did not buy Riviera because of the restrictions, but did buy direct from DVC. And now has points that can be used at Riviera, VDH and every future restricted resort. It's not worth examining how much weight every single buyer gives to that aspect. But the restrictions give direct purchases a boost that resale simply cannot match.

Still, there's a trade off in the evaluations when resale reaches low points like it has during this year. There seem to be certain groups of buyers - those who must have direct and will look at only direct options, those who must have certain resorts and don't care about price (or now restrictions), and those who care most about pricing because ultimately it's being at a Disney resort and they'll spin the wheel of where. Probably fairly successfully.
I've always felt the delta between resale and direct pricing is the one DVC needs to watch the most closely. They let it slide for awhile. They finally compensated with some large incentives and now I see that ROFR has popped up again. That might just be the wisest moves DVC could make.