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_auroraborealis_

I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
Joined
Oct 18, 2015
I don't think equating the NHL and cruise passengers is anywhere near alike. The NHLPA and league have agreed to numerous protocols and there is a control level they will never get with rando tourists. NHL is requiring quarantine on entry to both the US and Canada before players can scrimmage, and completely rearranged play schedule so that until playoffs, Canadian teams will not cross the border (and American teams will stay on their side as well).

Also, Canada. They feel far more strongly about hockey than American tourists, science fact.
 

kps7795

Earning My Ears
Joined
Jan 23, 2011
The Castaway Cay lifeguard might be a glimmer of hope for the Caribbean cruises but Alaska isn’t going to happen this year.
Why don't you think that Alaska isn't going to happen this year? What would be your guess about European cruises? My family and I were supposed to be on the 2020 Greek Isles cruise and we're crossing our fingers that we'll be able to actually go on our second attempt at a Greek Isles cruise this summer.
 

_auroraborealis_

I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.
Joined
Oct 18, 2015
Why don't you think that Alaska isn't going to happen this year?
Canada has to open Vancouver port to foreign tourists. Not looking likely. PVSA kicks in, as does the fact that switching homeport late in the game is not easily managed.

Europe is an open question. With so much of the continent under non-essential travel restrictions, it may not be an issue of if cruising is allowed, but if non-European cruisers are allowed in. If they are not, DCL is probably not viable for summer season.
 

gismo1554

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jul 11, 2005
I think like others have said none of us really know but its nice to see other people's opinions. Europe has allowed some cruising the past few months so is slightly ahead of the US in terms of protocols etc. Its just whether they allow countries in now to actually use the cruises that are going which is a bigger hurdle especially now were (UK) back in lock down and other European countries have increased their restrictions again after the festive period. That said our vaccination programme should have covered the top tiers by March and holiday companies have started pushing for holidays from April onwards. Not saying they know any more than anyone else or that theirs isn't speculation but it does make me feel that things will be very different in two months time even if that's just in terms of the certainty around things like cruising restarting. I have a med cruise currently booked for April and I'd say its 50:50 to be honest but I am still holding out hope as I think once things start moving in the cruising industry it will be a quick restart especially as they are already prepping now.
 

mab2012

DIS Veteran
DVC Gold
Joined
Dec 19, 2012
It’s quite clear actually. There is no appetite at either the provincial or federal level to even reopen the border and remove the quarantine requirement let alone reopen ports to cruise ships.
Yes and no. Right now there is this huge furor over travel and border restrictions, fueled mainly by the media and the premiers of Ontario and Quebec, who are desperately trying to deflect blame away from their own local messes, which are entirely of their own making.

But. Nova Scotia kept their borders closed last summer with extreme reluctance. Alberta has the reduced quarantine pilot program, which has not been shut down even in the face of rising local infection rates. Ontario has also recently introduced airport testing, with the eventual intention of reducing quarantine. (Right now it's being positioned as an "additional layer" in combination with quarantine, but Ford has been talking about using testing to reduce the need for border restrictions for months.)

I don't think there is going to be much appetite for sacrificing another tourist season once the older population has been vaccinated. Which is not to say that cruise ships will be sailing from Vancouver this summer. That's a long shot, especially if the cruise lines decide to cancel the whole season over a later start, or inadequate visibility on a start date. But I do think border restrictions will start to ease in the spring.
 

bcwife76

DisneyMomma
Joined
Dec 10, 2014
Yes and no. Right now there is this huge furor over travel and border restrictions, fueled mainly by the media and the premiers of Ontario and Quebec, who are desperately trying to deflect blame away from their own local messes, which are entirely of their own making.

But. Nova Scotia kept their borders closed last summer with extreme reluctance. Alberta has the reduced quarantine pilot program, which has not been shut down even in the face of rising local infection rates. Ontario has also recently introduced airport testing, with the eventual intention of reducing quarantine. (Right now it's being positioned as an "additional layer" in combination with quarantine, but Ford has been talking about using testing to reduce the need for border restrictions for months.)

I don't think there is going to be much appetite for sacrificing another tourist season once the older population has been vaccinated. Which is not to say that cruise ships will be sailing from Vancouver this summer. That's a long shot, especially if the cruise lines decide to cancel the whole season over a later start, or inadequate visibility on a start date. But I do think border restrictions will start to ease in the spring.
I'd be shocked if the CDN border reopened before June. The task force set up to discuss reopening isn't supposed to come back with their findings until March. Our premier here in BC has no desire to have the border reopened for many more months. Obvs it's a Federal decision, not a provincial one. But I think we are looking at many more months before border restrictions are eased, esp now with the negative Covid test required.
 

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  • mab2012

    DIS Veteran
    DVC Gold
    Joined
    Dec 19, 2012
    I'd be shocked if the CDN border reopened before June. The task force set up to discuss reopening isn't supposed to come back with their findings until March. Our premier here in BC has no desire to have the border reopened for many more months. Obvs it's a Federal decision, not a provincial one. But I think we are looking at many more months before border restrictions are eased, esp now with the negative Covid test required.
    I kind of think May, myself, but obviously I don't have a crystal ball. But by then innoculation of the 60+ population should be completed or well underway, and the earlier vaccination of LTC residents and the 70+ population will have had time to make a significant impact on hospitalizations. Once hospitalizations and deaths come down, it's going to be very hard to justify continued restrictions.
     

    otten

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Mar 4, 2015
    I kind of think May, myself, but obviously I don't have a crystal ball. But by then innoculation of the 60+ population should be completed or well underway, and the earlier vaccination of LTC residents and the 70+ population will have had time to make a significant impact on hospitalizations. Once hospitalizations and deaths come down, it's going to be very hard to justify continued restrictions.
    I’m curious what makes you think May for the majority of the 60+ population to be vaccinated? According to BC’s plan we are looking at Feb-March to start on the 80 plus crowd. It seems overly optimistic to think that they will be able to move on to those 60 and over by May. And that’s assuming the rollout goes as planned.
     

    bcwife76

    DisneyMomma
    Joined
    Dec 10, 2014
    I’m curious what makes you think May for the majority of the 60+ population to be vaccinated? According to BC’s plan we are looking at Feb-March to start on the 80 plus crowd. It seems overly optimistic to think that they will be able to move on to those 60 and over by May. And that’s assuming the rollout goes as planned.
    I agree 100%. May for the 60+ crowd is wildly optimistic. In BC they are still towing the 'by September anyone who wants it should have it' line, but in AB they are saying in September that is just when they will be getting to the general public. As of a couple of hours ago we have vaccinated 0.664% of the population. Ouch :(
     

    mab2012

    DIS Veteran
    DVC Gold
    Joined
    Dec 19, 2012
    I’m curious what makes you think May for the majority of the 60+ population to be vaccinated? According to BC’s plan we are looking at Feb-March to start on the 80 plus crowd. It seems overly optimistic to think that they will be able to move on to those 60 and over by May. And that’s assuming the rollout goes as planned.
    The vaccine rollout is not going to be linear. It will scale, fast. There has been a lot of angst lately over the slow pace of the initial distribution, which is understandable. Nobody is feeling very patient right now. But it was always going to start slowly, particularly when we started with what is logistically by far the most difficult vaccine to administrate, over the Christmas holiday.

    There are about 3.5 million Canadians over the age of 70. Projections from the beginning have estimated 3 million Canadians fully vaccinated by the end of March, and I don't think there's any reason yet to believe that's not realistic. The federal update today re-confirmed the expectation of 6 million doses by the end of March. Not everyone will get the vaccine, and production is expected to ramp up in April and beyond. So even allowing for some priority vaccination groups under the age of 70, I still think it's entirely plausible to expect that we'll be comfortably into vaccination of the 60-70 cohort by May.

    Of course, every province has its own plan, and I'm by no means familiar with all of them. Maybe BC is more highly prioritizing factors other than age? In Ontario, we are looking at getting first doses into LTC residents and staff in harder-hit areas (so, basically, anywhere there are people) within the next two weeks, and the very elderly are next in line.

    And yes, it does assume that more vaccines are approved and that the rollout proceeds more or less as planned. But actually I don't think the plan even assumes that absolutely everything will go right. It could go slower, but it could go faster too.

    I'm not really an optimistic person by nature. I've been saying since April that cruising would not restart until there was some fundamental shift - vaccine, effective treatment, or, least likely, a general willingness to just accept that people will get sick and move on. My philosophy through this whole thing has been to assume the most pessimistic scenario is usually the one that will prevail, and most of the time, that's turned out to be right. But this is just basic math.

    Time will tell. None of us have a crystal ball. Maybe something catastrophic will happen to disrupt supply, or none of the additional vaccines that are expected to come online will be approved. But based current expectations, for now I'm sticking with May. :-)
     
  • bcwife76

    DisneyMomma
    Joined
    Dec 10, 2014
    @mab2012 I'm not a very optimistic person either (I don't like that about myself) so maybe you are right. Time will tell, like you said. Let's just cross our fingers for a busy spring vaccination campaign :thumbsup2
     

    disneyland_is_magic

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 16, 2016
    When do cruise ships have to commit to passing through the Panama Canal? Do they have to make any official notifications?

    So for instance, let's say the Wonder only wants to go if they can run Alaska? Can they decide at the last minute or do they need to be committed well in advance? I imagine they don't want a repeat of last year where they go through to only come back again.
     

    dvcdisney

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 7, 2008
    I have to agree with those that believe the Canadian ports will likely not reopen in the summer.

    I don't think there is any confidence until after the general public receives the vaccine. And it appears that it would be near the end of summer for this to happen. So it's more likely that most of the Alaskan cruise season will not happen.

    Although it's not what anyone wants to hear...we can only see how our numbers are going up. Not sure if everyone has just stopped trying because they're expecting that the vaccine will immediately make things better.
     

    bbel

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Apr 23, 2014
    Personally, I'm surprised there aren't more job postings. Many crew aren't planning on going back (across all lines), and it takes time to process everything needed to start, especially in the current climate.
     





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