Our first visit to DC was on New Years Day 2012. We had the same worries about visiting in January!
Turned out we had a fantastic day. The morning was cool but the afternoon warmed up to the high 70's.....definitely swimming weather for us Canucks .
January in Orlando can be warm or cold or almost anything in between, so indeed you are rolling the dice as far as temperatures go. That said, the wetsuits provided by DC help keep you warm if the air is cool, they have large heaters around the "dry" areas (such as the restaurant) to dry you off quickly when needed, and the water is heated too (some areas more than others....while the dolphin pool is always kept quite cool, the Freshwater Oasis and the lazy river are bathwater warm).
We have been to Orlando once during Christmas week and twice in January. All three trips we have had some glorious weather (along with some cold days). I would not hesitate to book DC again in the winter on a future trip .
January could be hit or miss. It is really unpredictable. If no cold fronts come through you can get weather in the 70s and sometimes even low 80s. But if a cold front comes through you could get weather in the 50s or 60s.
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