January Occupancy WAAAY Down

[CanadianGuy]

Candian Guy,
I read your post including;
"I hate to be "that guy" but when Jim Hill says "The economy hasn't
affected Disney nearly as much as they expected.." -- I already start
siding with the other side of the argument because he has been so
dramatically and spectacularly wrong over and over in the past 24 to 36
months that at some point, presuming he's wrong again is just smart
thinking."
and was just wondering (just found Jim Hill's website a couple of weeks ago)what Jim H. has been wrong about over the last couple of years? Im not doubting you, just curious, thanks

Well.. this for starters.. "Recession worries starting to recede?" title of this article and not a week later Disney is offering buyouts to ThemePark and Resort execs? Obviously that headline is an assumption.. and wrong.

Jim was on the right track however - It would make sense for them to do this work now, construction in an economic downturn costs a lot less mainly cause there's more people sitting around idle.. but there is no easing of the economic downturn for Disney right now. But spending capital smartly NOW to save 18 to 25 % on construction costs for a hotel that WILL be occupied as the economy eases about the time the construction is complete ... makes sense. It'll create some jobs NOW and create even more jobs later when it opens.

As for Jim H. Just go to page 29 of the articles on his website and read your way forward. I gave up reading him in December of 2006 cause I purposely felt someone "inside the gated walls of the Mouse House in Burbank" was intentionally feeding him a bunch of hooey to make him look bad.

I still seriously wonder that.

I'm sure Jim's a nice guy .. and he's definitely on the mark sometimes.. but all too frequently he seems to make leaps of faith and assumptions that just aren't valid. It undermines his credibility.

Knox

 

[Keyser]

-----
The above posting as I was there too 01-07-09 to 01-11-09 and the crowds were very low.

Keep in mind that this is always one of the lowest crowd times of the year. I went in 2006 and 2007 right around these dates, and both times the parks were not at all crowded (for example, no wait for Tower of Terror even in the middle of the afternoon)- only a few, like Soarin, were even getting over 30 minutes. That's not to say this year isn't worse, but I wouldn't go on the crowds in January to judge that well.

 

[CanadianGuy]

Keep in mind that this is always one of the lowest crowd times of the year. I went in 2006 and 2007 right around these dates, and both times the parks were not at all crowded (for example, no wait for Tower of Terror even in the middle of the afternoon)- only a few, like Soarin, were even getting over 30 minutes. That's not to say this year isn't worse, but I wouldn't go on the crowds in January to judge that well.

Earlier in the this thread (and others on this board) people were stating that it was 'super crowded' at this traditionally slow time.. (they attended one day, a Saturday) as an indicator that the economy hasn't affected Disney one whit.

These responses were to say "Not quite" so super crowded.

 

[Guzzi]

thanks for the reply canadian guy

 

[Mouseaholic!!!]

DH is a castmember at ABC - 30 year veteran.

The word around the school yard is 4th quarter attendance was down 8%. That is not the worry, however. Anaheim likes to have "butts in the beds" because they have always worked on the "get them here and they will spend" theory.

4th quarter problem was....people were spending less....at WDW and DL.

Our December trip I traveled in a scooter for the first time.....I was at "gift bag" height. We were heading over to the Christmas Party one evening as the ferry was bringing a LARGE load of guests back to the T & TC. The one thing we ALL noticed were......hardly anybody had any Disney shopping bags. We noticed again in the stores.....they were PACKED, but purchases we watched were small.

They can get the people there with the current specials....but they cannot make budget minded guests buy.

2009 will have more challenges for WDW with the strength of the US dollar agains the British Pound.....not to mention they are now in deeper into the mortgage crisis that WE are.

International guests are not going to be rushing here this year.

There is no way Disney is going to avoid these challenges.

 

[My2Angels]

Anyhow, it will be interesting to see what this year brings. Our trip is scheduled for Nov 20 -Dec 5. I know I probably won't get any good rates Thabksgiving wek but hopefully the following week![/QUOTE]

You might be surprised! We got free dining last year (2008) Thanksgiving week!

 

[RescueRanger]

I just called and made a couple of our ADRs for our March 7-15 trip. We are only 40 days out and I was making ressies for a group of 12. I was worried with such a large group and short notice that I was going to be at the mercy of what time slots were left. Wrong, the group dining agent said I pretty much had a choice of any time I wanted for both of my ADRs. Wow, I couldn't believe it. I sure hope this means lighter crowds.

 

[Guzzi]

Any Disr's returning from a stay a the end of the month after the holiday and marathon, how were the crowds at the parks?, how were the crowds at your hotel?

 

[peanutandbella]

I just returned from a trip 1/21-1/28. I thought the crowds in the parks were pretty good. With good timing, I manged to not wait more than 25 minutes for anything (by using fast pass for the more popular rides of course). Even the stand by lines for things like Soarin and Space Mountain, were never above 50 minutes that I saw. As others have posted, there were tons of Brazilian tour groups though. I also was very surprised when I tried to check into Movies and was told I was being transferred to Sports because they didn't have a room for my length of stay. After expressing my disappointment and that I had already paid a change fee to be moved OUT of Sports into Movies about 3 weeks before, they suddenly found a room for me. So I'm not sure if they were really full or not.

 

[Mouseaholic!!!]

Anybody who thinks the resorts and parks are full right now.....rewind to last Thursday when Disney announced, because of the downturn in the economy they were forced to layoff staff company wide. 5% of ABC said bye-bye...and 1,000 in Disney cost centers overall.

It's not the end, there continues to be consumate changes and it's NOT because hotels are full.

Disney is offering discounts everywhere to get "heads in the beds". The sad news now is ...... they ARE getting a few more people to come....but in the last 3 months they have spent 40% less while there.


We should all be cheering when the parks are FULL and hands are filled with Disney shopping bags at the end of the night...that is unless you LIKE to see layoffs of staff and the diminished services offered.

Oh by the way, the 1,000 did NOT include the 600 buy-outs to executives. These people were fired and positions eliminated.

 

[Tink rules]

Walt Disney Co. profits dropped 32 percent at close of 2008

Jason Garcia

Sentinel Staff Writer

4:38 PM EST, February 3, 2009


Profits at the Walt Disney Co. fell 32 percent during the final three months of 2008, dragged down by falling DVD sales, weakened advertising revenue, and lower attendance at its theme parks.

Disney said it this afternoon it earned $845 million, or 45 cents a share, during its fiscal first quarter, down from almost $1.3 billion, or 63 cents a share, for the same period a year ago.

The results, which include a gain of 4 cents a share from the sale of investments in two Latin American pay-television services, missed Wall Street's expectations. Analysts had predicted average earnings of 52 cents a share, based on a survey by Thomson Reuters.

Total revenue fell 8 percent to $9.6 billion.

The company's parks-and-resorts division reported both lower revenue and operating income for the three months that ended Dec. 27. Revenue was down 4 percent to $2.7 billion, while operating profit fell 24 percent to $382 million.

Disney blamed the division's performance on sagging results at its U.S. resorts and at Disneyland Resort Paris. Both attendance and occupied-room nights fell at Walt Disney World and at Disneyland in Anaheim, Calif.

The company said it only partially offset the losses with cost cuts.

"We faced a challenging first quarter with many of our businesses impacted to various degrees by the economic downturn," Disney President and Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger said in a written statement. "We are forcefully confronting current circumstances while investing in the great creativity, brands and assets that are Disney's strengths and keys to its long-term success."

Copyright © 2009, Orlando Sentinel

 

[Guzzi]

according to a couple of threads, the buy 4 get 3 free deal will be extended for dates through 8/15.

I guess the recent earning news coupled with what I assume must be lower than hoped for reservations for the summer, has caused disney to extend the deal to bring in folks to the resorts.

Im not surprised, things are so bad everywhere, I work in local govt, and the admin is looking at ways to furlough workers or go to 4 day work week to save $, which takes me right out of the vacation planning for this year.

Oh well, maybe next year

 

[Tjkane28]

according to a couple of threads, the buy 4 get 3 free deal will be extended for dates through 8/15.

Iger announced this during the earnings conference call on Tuesday. The booking window is scheduled to open Monday, Feb. 9

 

[tink713]

We were in the world from Jan.24-Feb.1, and I was expecting it to be quiet like it was in September. Boy was I wrong, it was crazy crowded. We waited in line for Magical Express for an hour. At one point during the week, the line for Soarin was 100 minutes, Test Track was 60 minutes, and Spaceship Earth was 25 minutes! I really couldn't believe how crowded it got considering it was January.

 

[ufgator]

We were in the world from Jan.24-Feb.1, and I was expecting it to be quiet like it was in September. Boy was I wrong, it was crazy crowded. We waited in line for Magical Express for an hour. At one point during the week, the line for Soarin was 100 minutes, Test Track was 60 minutes, and Spaceship Earth was 25 minutes! I really couldn't believe how crowded it got considering it was January.

I was there Jan 28-Feb 1 and was surprised how crowded it was. We were expecting it to be slow and it wasn't.

 

[cmac609]

Most of December was dead????
We were there from Dec. 6-12, and everything was mobbed! Restaurants rides, resorts. Never saw so many people. This has to be the busiest Christmas since 2001!
Fortunatley, we made dining reservations in April, because we could not get any reservations anywhere for meals once we got there.And the counter service eateries in Epcot {as an example} were beyond crowded. Took us forever to get a meal, and we did not even go during the lunch hours!
We go to WDW every December, {for the last 11 years} and have never seen the crowds that we saw this year.

Okay, we were there for the first time at Christmas Season from 12/12-12/17. The 12th was dead--so empty. However the weekend 13-14 were crazy especially at the Magic Kingdom...it was much worse than 4th of July weekend...it was crazy....I think alot had to do that those days were the weekend...come Monday it was less crowded but not as empty as that Friday the 12th.

 

[PaulaSB12]

This is the offer current in the UK

Simply book a 14 night Orlando package with tickets and get 14 nights for the price of 10 plus 7 free days in the Disney Parks.

There's never been a larger selection of Orlando hotels on offer - it's the perfect time to take-off to the magic.
Offer ends 31 March 2009.


Terms and conditions apply. Offer is valid for a 14 night stay only. Not applicable on other holiday durations. Valid on selected hotels and room categories, subject to availability. Requires purchase of Disney's 14-Day Ultimate Ticket for every member of the party. 14 day ticket for the price of 7 is only available with a 14 night stay and ticket purchase. Valid for arrivals from 19 April – 01 October 09. Must book by 31 March 09. Offer available for new bookings only and is not combinable with other offers. Check with your travel provider for full terms and conditions. © Disney

Cancelled my free dining holiday and used that deposit to pay for this one with just a £25 amendment fee saving £287 but I think this will be my last year for a while, I am only going because I paid for my flight and it would cost to much to cancel it.

 

[rantnnravin]

We were in the world from Jan.24-Feb.1, and I was expecting it to be quiet like it was in September. Boy was I wrong, it was crazy crowded. We waited in line for Magical Express for an hour. At one point during the week, the line for Soarin was 100 minutes, Test Track was 60 minutes, and Spaceship Earth was 25 minutes! I really couldn't believe how crowded it got considering it was January.

I was there Jan 28-Feb 1 and was surprised how crowded it was. We were expecting it to be slow and it wasn't.

What needs to be taken into consideration is that many CM hours have been cut, so lines WILL be longer. Here's why:

a) Using the test track reference: there are 3 briefing rooms. There is also a FP entrance and a single-rider entrance - each requiring a CM to direct guests. Let's cut out the FP CM and the single-rider CM and have one CM and one (maybe 2) briefing rooms open. You have just cut capacity and effectively increased the wait time for the attraction - making the park seem busy. Same thing goes for Soarin. If they close one theater, it cuts capacity in half (thousands of guests per hour) while also eliminating the need for the 4-5 CMs to run that side.
b) Crowd patterns and park choices also affect how busy a park is. So, combine observation "a" with having no fantasmic at the studios, and no spectro at MK and you have more guests going to Epcot. This may also cause affect "c":
c) Disney knows "b" will occur so they cut staffing at the other parks - thereby making them appear busier as well.

To put it into real-world context: Let's say the MTA (public transportation) wants to cut fuel consumption. So, instead of running four M34 buses each hour, they only run two. What is the result? The buses are more full (making it appear that ridership is up) and the masses at the bus stops are larger (making it appear that ridership is up).

 

[Steffiesunshine]

We just returned from a trip Jan 27 to Feb 3, and we were pleasantly suprised at how LOW the crowds were. Most attractions were walk on, although I did see a 25 minute wait on Expedition Everest, but later that day, it was 5 and 10 minutes. On Friday night, Soarin was only a 40 minute wait and that was the longest wait we saw for that ride all week. (Went there 3 days)

I took photos of stand-by times at prime time afternoon hours and Buzz, HM, SM, BTMRR was never more than 10 minutes. Buzz was actually 5 minutes. The busiest day I saw was actually Saturday. I was at DHS and the stand-by line for Toy Story Mania at 2pm was 45 minutes. Fast Passes were gone. We waited and the wait was actually 37 minutes. We returned later that night around 7:30pm after the 7pm American Idol Show and the wait was 25 minutes, but we wanted to leave.

We never stood on a bus, and the boats were always empty to our resort. I purposely noticed all the darkened rooms at our hotel. We had an inner courtyard and you could tell how many rooms were empty. The drapes were never opened and lights on in very few rooms. We checked in at 11am and had a room ready immediately, as did the other 7 families who came in on the bus with us that day. Our ME bus was waiting for us at the airport at 10:30am, and we left right for the resort with about 9 other families/couples. We made 1 drop at the Poly and everyone else went to WL. On the way home, we were picked up actually by a Disney Cruise Line bus at exactly 6:05pm as scheduled and there was only 1 other person on the bus with us.

I know many people doubt that there is a good time to visit Disney anymore, but I would go back this time next year in a second. Unfortunately I am going back already 11/29-12/6 on the 40% code. If it was good for January, I would be there.

I don't know if the days we were at the park mattered. I am shocked to see that some people there at the same time felt the parks were crowded. I did do exactly what you aren't supposed to do. We went to parks on every EMH and once on MMH. We didn't follow any touring plan or recommendation for what day to go to which park. I guess maybe we just got lucky, but again, I do have lots of photos of very empty parks.


And on another note: I saw a few Brazilian tour groups, but they weren't making any trouble and we saw a lot of cheerleaders on Saturday at DHS, but they weren't really an issue. We saw them walking by as we were eating lunch, and did run into a group on TOT.

 

[mitros]

Okay, we were there for the first time at Christmas Season from 12/12-12/17. The 12th was dead--so empty. However the weekend 13-14 were crazy especially at the Magic Kingdom...it was much worse than 4th of July weekend...it was crazy....I think alot had to do that those days were the weekend...come Monday it was less crowded but not as empty as that Friday the 12th.

OK, we have made 9 day trips since the first week of January, and each and every trip was met with mobs in the parks, at the restaurants and at the resorts. Still waiting for things to "slow-down".