$135 in 6 months for points with 11 month access to the brand new tower (and the rest of Poly), 7 month access to everything else (except RIV, VDH and CFW), and with no RIV-style resale restrictions? Sounds like an amazingly good deal, and I have my doubts that you will be able to get them that cheaply.
Agreed, but a guy can dream. 98% sure I’ll be happy just holding onto my resale points.
I will bet you both 5 imaginary internet dollars that we see Poly sales at April 2024 prices ($135/pt) again by the end of the year. After all, that was just *last month*.
Renting/Transferring is also an optionIf it wasn't for the dues adding up, I would have kept all of them, & would keep on adding to the collection.!!
PS. i never get rid of property in Monopoly, only trade if I'm getting the better end of the deal, & completing a monopoly.
Not sure why you would want to sell and buy back right away?
Arbitrage.
I would NOT recommend a delayed close. If the price declines much, people will just lose the deposit and walk away. Especially if direct comes close to the $185 vicinity, nobody will want to close on a resale contract at $185.
I think Poly theoretically could return below $150 by the end of this year, but given how aggressively they are pumping it now, I would not bet they abandon the ROFR sniping entirely before 2025, and that could keep it above $150. If they want to sell PVB direct at $200 for more than one incentive cycle, they’ve gotta keep resale with $50 of that price. They had trouble moving VGF until it was within $25 of a (non-loaded!) resale contract, after MB… some (not moi) think that Poly Tower will be more desirable than BPK, but I still think more than $50 between direct and resale will hamper sales.
Probably not for the next 6-9 months, absent economic disaster.
The one thing that 2009 and 2023 have in common is that capital became more scarce/precious/expensive and having a strong balance sheet was at a premium. Not sure what park attendance was like in ‘09-10 because I was grinding away at my desk like a yuppie millennial. I did make it to WDW a couple times from ‘05-08 and my recollection was that extra magic hours (before and after) were more plentiful and parks were less crowded, even though it would have been in the midst of an economic boom.
When the delta between resale and direct is much tighter I think it makes people stretch to get non-restricted direct points if they were going to naturally go resale. ROFR has seemingly driven up the prices in the short-term (agree with others that it will fall again) but it certainly has some impact. I would certainly love to buy direct but much harder to justify if resale is so much less - even if restricted in this case.
I personally think - and I could be very, very wrong - that they were waiting to see how VDH sales did before they fully committed one way or the other.
You are not alone. I’m not certain they will be less (maybe after magical beginnings) but it seems completely insane to pay $200 resale if you believe you can get direct somewhere between $190-220 in the next year. I’m assuming none of the $200 point contracts are loaded, but that would make it slightly more palatable (though still wild).
People are cashing in on impatience and frankly people who don’t know the actual market value of PVB. I’m very much getting the same vibes I got when there was a rush on VGC contracts after VDH transient tax news broke. I remember there were like 2 resale VGC contracts left up for sale at that time and now we’re back to 40 currently.
We sold our PVB contract in four days after listing. We didn’t price as high as many of the current contracts for sale, but we were towards the top of our suggested listing prices by reasonable brokers. We just wanted to clear the commission hurdle so we could buy more points in total or buy direct and resale. And we were not in a place where we had to sell. We provided our full 2025 points. I wonder how much of this recent pricing is being fueled by the sellers and how much is due to the brokers trying to sell the resale market a tall tale on the value of the PVB resale to get into the new tower? One DISer reported they wanted to put in an offer on a PVB resale and the broker lectured them on how the market has totally changed and prices are now $180-$200pp.
We only own resale and are considering direct. If price parody it close, we would consider selling our 25 and 50 point contracts to buy 200 direct instead of the 150 we initially expected to buy.
Seems like an easy upgrade to me, probably can sell in 190s-200s given how small those contracts are. Might as well bump up to the 200 point incentive and just buy it as 150/50 and get pretty darn close to breaking even with no restrictions on all your points.
