Is there a website to show PROJECTED dates of hurricanes?

[jiggerj]

There is an area of low pressure 1500 miles east of the lesser antilles that they are watching at this time. It is moving west northwest..at this time is shows no further development but is moving over the open atlantic and could turn into a tropical depression in 24-36 hours.
'.

Ok now I am getting a little nervous! We head down to Disney on Sunday morning (the 4th) I have been trying to find info on this but cannot. Can someone give an update? TIA!

 

[safetymom]

TD 13 and 14 are not supposed to affect FL.

 

[Bob P]

Ok now I am getting a little nervous! We head down to Disney on Sunday morning (the 4th) I have been trying to find info on this but cannot. Can someone give an update? TIA!

PLEASE don't get nervous!

At this time of year there are always disturbances coming off the African coast. Some of them get sheared off and die. Some make their way into the Atlantic and then curve away and die. Others come all the way across, develop into tropical storms or hurricanes, and threaten the US, the Caribbean, and/or Mexico.

Some computer models have a disturbance in the vicinity of the Southeast US by early next week. That does not mean it will hit Florida, or any land at all. It is far too early to tell.

Just keep in mind as I said earlier in this thread: the odds are in your favor. Prior to last year the WDW parks had closed for a hurricane exactly one day in 33 years.

Bob

 

[Danthesand]

As other posters have pointed out, there is no way to even get a general idea of potenial hurricane impact on any specific area a month out.

The best the OP can do is textbook 101: look at history.

Weather records going back to the early 1900s (in chart below) show that in terms of number of storms per week, hurricane season usually "peaks" in early September.

However, it also suggests that late September/early October is just as risky as most of August and actually much riskier than June, July or some of the mid October on.

Why are September and early October still risky?

Conditions for creating hurricances then are as good as it gets; early fall has highest levels of all the necessary ingredients: warm ocean waters (at least 26°C or 80°F), a tropical atmosphere that easily creates thunderstorms, low vertical shear in high altitudes, and a substantial amount of large-scale high pressure spin (either through the Pacific monsoon trough or Atlantic easterly waves).

 

[crazymomof4]

TD 13 and 14 are not supposed to affect FL.

Where did you read or hear this? Our family has been hearing about these "seeds" of storms far off and wondering if any will be hitting FL as major systems while we are there (9/14-9/23).

 

[safetymom]

Here on the weather forecast in Orlando this morning. Just keep watching www.wftv.com

 

[Bob P]

Where did you read or hear this? Our family has been hearing about these "seeds" of storms far off and wondering if any will be hitting FL as major systems while we are there (9/14-9/23).

Again, it's WAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYY too early to tell!

 

[Danthesand]

Where did you read or hear this? Our family has been hearing about these "seeds" of storms far off and wondering if any will be hitting FL as major systems while we are there (9/14-9/23).

Below is the current satellite photo of the Atlantic basin. TD #13 is the cloud "smudge" in the upper left hand corner or the cell in column 4, row 2. As Safetymom stated, it is not expected to affect Florida (is moving northward, not west).

However, TD #14 -- the smaller cloud smudge in the middle far right of the same cell -- has not yet been ruled out as potential threat (could evolve into a TS and move westward). That is the depression some forecasters have already been expressing concern about, in terms of a potential new threat to Florida and/or the gulf.

 

[dwmlaf]

In the Gulf Coast States - Hurricane season really starts the end of Aug, peaks in Sept and slows down in October.

Katrina is proof of that!

 

[Kimberly815]

I personally am grateful that you cannot predict hurricanes. If you could, then you could predict all weather. AND PEOPLE LIKE ME WOULD BE OUT OF A JOB!

Unfortunately, there isn't much you can do about hurricanes, and you will just have to make the best of it.

Good luck. I hope that everyone has a 'hurricane free' vacation.

 

[scarboroughmom]

Use the site below to check the track of any developing tropical storms.


http://www.intellicast.com/Local/US...&product=ActiveTropical&prodnav=none&pid=none

 

[crazymomof4]

Here on the weather forecast in Orlando this morning. Just keep watching www.wftv.com

Thanks, and I will keep watching..........hoping for good news.