Is it the economy, Goofy?

[LoriABil]

After listening to the PodCast, the news of Disney's most recent release of Free Dining and the discussion following made me think. My husband and I have many discussions about Economics (among other boring political science stuff) and the buzz word of the day is "Double Dip Recession."

Basically, the belief is that we are in a "false recovery" and we are due for another downfall. Political - and economic - beliefs aside, could the earliest release of Free Dining dates since inception mean that Disney buys into the Double Dip theory?

It would make sense that Disney would have the data to back up their concerns - park and hotel trends, spending habits, etc. Maybe the thought is to release the dates and get people to commit to a vacation before they realize the economy is regressing. After all, after planning a 2011 vacation, it's very difficult to tell the kids, "Sorry,we aren't going this year. Changed our mind. Bad economy!" If WDW fills the rooms now, they won't have to give deeper discounts later.

Of course, this isn't to say Universal hasn't opened WDW's eyes that there could actually be competition out there! But could the economy (or perception of the economy) be driving early discounts? I'd love to hear what the DISers think - without political commentary, of course!

 

[soupy11]

I think definitely. They are well aware that next year could be the worst of it and they are hedging their bets....the financial news is horribly grim. I can't believe the things I am reading and hope they are just pessimistic brain storming outlining the worst case scenarios.

 

[gkrykewy]

I don't think this is a politically sensitive issue - clearly no "side" has a slam dunk solution since the economy collapsed on one party's watch, and remains stagnant on the other's. The problems are structural, not political -- I mean, if you think about it, we haven't had any honest growth since about 1999 or so; everything gained and lost in the meantime has been from bubbles, not real. Plenty of blame to go around over that timeframe.

There's no "double dip theory" -- either we go back into recession, or we don't. Even slight growth feels like recession, which is what we've got now.

I think Disney is just acknowledging that the economy remains stagnant, and will likely continue to be anemic for awhile. Remember that they're not locking people in by getting them to book now - anybody can cancel and get their deposits back if their personal finances turn south (although you're right that there would be some "stickiness" because people won't want to cancel once they've gotten excited).

 

[Cherinva]

Free dining brings a lot of people in...although in my case, I haven't been able to get in on it yet, due to my travel schedule....I feel the Disney thinking is to bring in the people....and if they want the free dining, they must stay in a Disney Resort...most people, once they get on property, don't tend to leave...more opportunity for Disney to make money. I don't think it's any political theory going on, just good business sense.

 

[NWOhioAngela]

Does anybody think the Fantasyland expansion has anything to do with it? People are going to start hearing that Fantasyland is all torn up with construction and maybe decide not to go until its done. Sure, there isn't construction at the other parks, but how many people (who aren't Disers) think MK IS Disneyworld?

 

[AlbertZeroK]

The free dining really, i think, helps spread the guests out. It's like saying, if you come during our slow time instead of busy time, you get a deal. They are sure making use of black out dates and I think it's a grand idea!

As for the recession, people are all worried about the housing numbers, when realistically, I could have told you it would happen. The first time home buyer's credit drove people to close in June, not July, of course July numbers were going to be depressed, every one interested in buying was closing in June! Gesh, not that hard.

I also think Obama has lost steam. Reguardless of what you think politically, he had a following and knew something about leadership to get it. Not that he was old Ronny Regan - but his popularity is wearing off. Of course, Sarah Palin is a spectical and the whole idea of splitting the Republican party in two with the Tea Party has got to have Republicans worried!

But this dining stuff is nice to see, it's Disney reaching out to get all the travelers they can!

 

[chillcoupons]

After listening to the PodCast, the news of Disney's most recent release of Free Dining and the discussion following made me think. My husband and I have many discussions about Economics (among other boring political science stuff) and the buzz word of the day is "Double Dip Recession."

Basically, the belief is that we are in a "false recovery" and we are due for another downfall. Political - and economic - beliefs aside, could the earliest release of Free Dining dates since inception mean that Disney buys into the Double Dip theory?

It would make sense that Disney would have the data to back up their concerns - park and hotel trends, spending habits, etc. Maybe the thought is to release the dates and get people to commit to a vacation before they realize the economy is regressing. After all, after planning a 2011 vacation, it's very difficult to tell the kids, "Sorry,we aren't going this year. Changed our mind. Bad economy!" If WDW fills the rooms now, they won't have to give deeper discounts later.

Of course, this isn't to say Universal hasn't opened WDW's eyes that there could actually be competition out there! But could the economy (or perception of the economy) be driving early discounts? I'd love to hear what the DISers think - without political commentary, of course!

I agree 100% on the double dip but I think it has very little to do with Universal.

I don't think this is a politically sensitive issue - clearly no "side" has a slam dunk solution since the economy collapsed on one party's watch, and remains stagnant on the other's. The problems are structural, not political -- I mean, if you think about it, we haven't had any honest growth since about 1999 or so; everything gained and lost in the meantime has been from bubbles, not real. Plenty of blame to go around over that timeframe.

There's no "double dip theory" -- either we go back into recession, or we don't. Even slight growth feels like recession, which is what we've got now.

I disagree with most of this. The solution is very clear but will never happen under this administration and congress. The revamped conservative GOP, which is what we will get in November will be much more conservative than President Bush who is a moderate. At that point we will start to get back on the right track.

 

[gkrykewy]

sure smells like a political thread now! My team is better than your team!

 

[LoriABil]

I think definitely. They are well aware that next year could be the worst of it and they are hedging their bets....the financial news is horribly grim. I can't believe the things I am reading and hope they are just pessimistic brain storming outlining the worst case scenarios.

Hedging their bets - well put! And I agree - hopefully most of the stuff we are seeing are just pundits looking for doom and gloom to get viewers/readers/followers!

I don't think this is a politically sensitive issue - clearly no "side" has a slam dunk solution since the economy collapsed on one party's watch, and remains stagnant on the other's. The problems are structural, not political -- I mean, if you think about it, we haven't had any honest growth since about 1999 or so; everything gained and lost in the meantime has been from bubbles, not real. Plenty of blame to go around over that timeframe.

There's no "double dip theory" -- either we go back into recession, or we don't. Even slight growth feels like recession, which is what we've got now.

I think Disney is just acknowledging that the economy remains stagnant, and will likely continue to be anemic for awhile. Remember that they're not locking people in by getting them to book now - anybody can cancel and get their deposits back if their personal finances turn south (although you're right that there would be some "stickiness" because people won't want to cancel once they've gotten excited).

By "double dip theory" I mean that we won't know what the recession actually looked like until it is behind us. It might be one big downhill slide. It might be a big decline followed by a big improvement followed by a little decline. We won't know until we see the big picture. Oh, heck, let's just throw in one more! Hindsight's 20 - 20!

Does anybody think the Fantasyland expansion has anything to do with it? People are going to start hearing that Fantasyland is all torn up with construction and maybe decide not to go until its done. Sure, there isn't construction at the other parks, but how many people (who aren't Disers) think MK IS Disneyworld?

This is a great point! "Let's wait until Fantasyland is done!" They may be thinking they are getting less for their money if an entire land is under construction! But if Disney sweetens the deal, they might reconsider...

 

[clomahony]

I agree about Disney worrying that the economy is still in some trouble. I used to work in commercial real estate and that market is starting to slow down again after a short bump. I also think that this next dip in the economy or as the growth remains sluggish depending on what school of economics you subscribe to will affect people more dramatically as cutbacks have already been made and further cuts will hurt even more. I know for myself, I lost my job in 2009 and found a much lower paying job and now my husband was just told that he's being furloughed for a day a month this school year so that puts an end to any vacation plans we were hoping for in 2011.

 

[dalt01]

OP.........nice play on James Carville's famous line during the Clinton campaign

 

[LoriABil]

Thanks - I was wondering if I was the only one who got it