My husband and I also were interested in DVC, and did a cost evaluation in the last 2 years. I was especially interested in the location of Bay Lake Tower, how easy would that be at nap time?
1. If you have to finance the purchase price, it is not a good deal.
2. Currently, with all of the promotions that Disney has been running it is not a good deal.
3. It really depends when you travel. If you travel in the high season your break even point will be much sooner than for someone who travels in September.
4. Are you sure you will want to visit Disney in 35 years (since most time share exchanges diminish your investment)
You need to factor the purchase price of the points, the annual maintenance cost (make certain to escalate your annual dues--each property has a different historical percentage increase), and the lost opportunity cost for investment. (For lost opportunity cost an easy and safe way to estimate this would be to take your current mortgage rate, and apply that as your interest rate factor, so if you have a 5% mortgage use that as your lost rate of return).
We really like Disney, but at the end of the day for us it did not make good economic sense. Paying for the points in cash was not a problem, and we are pretty sure we will want to go to Disney in 30 years; but we could not get over the high maintenance costs and the discount incentives Disney is frequently running. How many of us have gotten discounts of 35%-45% on a fairly regular basis? or
free dining? Heck we stayed at the DVC Hilton Head property this past October for $65 or $69 a night, and we were upgraded to a two bedroom.
Here is the final red-herring to consider. The ease and availability of renting points from DVC members. Now I think most of this is people who either need the money to pay their dues, people who bought in early so their cost basis is next to nothing, or people who are sick of going to Disney.
Like most financial decisions, this is a personal choice and on this board there is a hugh emotional attachment to DVC. As I am sure you have read for many people buying DVC is equivalent to "making it". If you decide to do it just make sure you have all your ducks in a row.....