Is anything selling?

[Bearval]

Thing is ROFR is a paper tiger going forward. Every major corporation is slashing spending and laying off 7-12%. Debt is getting very expensive. Disney is literally caught flat-footed. They’re going to be selling active DVC across several properties at a time when the economy is contracting substantially. I’ll bet the ROFR department is going to be told to use their funds very conservatively, because the last thing Disney will want in a deep recession is more DVC inventory.

My thoughts: ROFR is going to be incoherent. They’ll buy back at $160 and let $140s walk all day. Brokers will then tell buyers not to put in a “lowball” $150 because Disney bought 5 contracts at $160. But it’s all psychological to buoy the market.

Reality is there are normally 600 or so DVC resale listings online, and yet as of Feb 2, 2023, we have over 2,700. ROFR only works as a safety net on prices if there are buyers, and there aren’t many. So, inventory will continue to pile up and unless sellers humble their proud pricing, they won’t find a bid.

Go rent the points out, they said…problem is are there renters? Because more sellers will look that route. Eventually you get to a situation of a glut of sales and rentals and points expiring worthless. That’s when the real panic sets in.

Looking forward to BLT sub-$100.

I have put in two offers at particular resale site and had l One of the agents emailed me an said the offer was too low and they wouldn't even presented to the owner. They invited me to contact them so I could put in a reasonable offer. I emailed them back and told them my offer was $5 above there "instant offer" so I felt my offer was already "reasonable". I have yet to receive a reply.

 

[Stank]

I have put in two offers at particular resale site and had l One of the agents emailed me an said the offer was too low and they wouldn't even presented to the owner. They invited me to contact them so I could put in a reasonable offer. I emailed them back and told them my offer was $5 above there "instant offer" so I felt my offer was already "reasonable". I have yet to receive a reply.

Hah! That’s hilarious. There’s a lot of muscle memory in markets and psychology. Past performance isn’t indicative of future trends, yet that’s how human nature orients itself.

With that kind of broker attitude, it tells me there’s a lot further to go in price rationalization. Because the market is moving down faster than what the brokers are adjusted to, so there’s a lot of that muscle memory resulting in scoffing at fair market offers. It’s not 2021 anymore. People aren’t getting $5000 stimulus checks; many are getting pink slips. Money isn’t at 0% (well, just the money in your savings account as the banks won’t raise rates). We have 2,700+ DVC active listings on the Web at all brokerage firms. Typically it’s around 600-800. There’s so much supply we don’t have enough Bounty paper towels to mop it up.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Looking forward to BLT sub-$100

Nah, this is a little too gloom and doom.

 

[Stank]

Nah, this is a little too gloom and doom.

Maybe. Maybe not. We just had people buying digital artwork for more than a Rembrandt. No one told them with digital artwork you can create an exact replica with a screenshot and no one could tell—and it’s free. Now those NFTs are worthless, all in a matter of a year.

I endured hearing everyone talk about how housing prices won’t go down or crash because there’s no inventory. That was just 6 months ago. Now there’s a glut of inventory and prices are falling. It’s almost as if homes appeared out of thin air. The truth is there’s plenty of inventory. Walk around the neighborhood: everyone home is inventory; it just doesn’t have a for sale sign yet. Likewise, all existing DVC contracts are sellable. Everyday there’s layoffs being announced. What happens with DVC if unemployment goes to 5%, which is barely an increase? Might as well sell.

BLT was going for $190s, even $200 resale 18 months ago. I see multiple BLTs for $144 for 160 point contracts. We haven’t even had the unemployment rate tick up and DVC prices are falling through the floor.

 

[CarolMN]

@Stank, what you say may be true. Even so, IMO, there would be fewer sellers and significantly more buyers if Disney Parks made a few changes. (Bring back APs, get rid of park reservations, allow a few advance Genie+ reservations. etc). The current park experience, high ticket prices % general nickel and diming is pushing DVC Members to sell. Those factors are perhaps more influential than many care to believe. YMMV.

 

[tom1944]

Nah, this is a little too gloom and doom.

I put in 5 BLT offers at $137. None were accepted. Counters were $150 to 154.

Not all sellers will sell at any cost.

I based my offer on 7 sales I saw at between $126 to 135

The 126 was taken by Disney and so was one at 135

 

[Stank]

I put in 5 BLT offers at $137. None were accepted. Counters were $150 to 154.

Not all sellers will sell at any cost.

I based my offer on 7 sales I saw at between $126 to 135

The 126 was taken by Disney and so was one at 135

I see two BLTs for $144 listed. Sellers won’t sell at any cost, but there are more sellers than ever. Since I checked from yesterday to today, the supply of DVC contracts for sale increased by over 30, from 2,703 to 2,734.

There’s a lot of muscle memory and pride in markets and psychology. People want what the market was at 12 months ago, even 4 months ago. That ain’t where we are now, and where we are going the prices will further deteriorate.

So sellers can be proud. Looking in the rearview mirror to see what’s in front isn’t how markets work. There’s plenty of residual price bias where they saw $200 BLT in April 2021 and at $150 sellers feel like they’ve “already come down enough.” But the listings are $144 and no bid. Sitting for weeks. Which means the market is $130s. Hop on the train, because $130s will be a bargain for sellers. We’re onwards to $120s and below, and Disney won’t be ROFRing with a deep recession.

It’s interesting the reverse doesn’t work in appreciating markets. When VGC went to $300pp, any offer not at full ask was laughed at. “We aren’t at $250 anymore.” Now you have Grand Cal at $230 and dropping like a rock. We’ll be below $200 soon.

Sellers will cling to past pricing and miss the opportunity to get out. DVC had a nice run up the past 10+ years. Interest rates are up and layoffs are starting to happen. Like I said, a year ago I would’ve been laughed at suggesting Grand Cal would be $230pp. Yet here we are. BLT is falling through to prices we haven’t seen in years. Why would I stabilize now? I see 2,734 DVC contracts for sale. Over 300 BLTs. Obviously there aren’t buyers.

 

[kboo]

I put in 5 BLT offers at $137. None were accepted. Counters were $150 to 154.

Not all sellers will sell at any cost.

I based my offer on 7 sales I saw at between $126 to 135

The 126 was taken by Disney and so was one at 135

There are a lot of contracts out there, take your time. When I was actively looking for resales, I put on text/email alerts and added apps at all the major resale sites. I have 3 resale contracts, the first one (BLT) I got a daily email where it was listed, called on a Sunday within 2 hours of getting the email, and we were in contract by Monday. AFAIK that contract never hit the resale co's website. The others I also called within 24 hours of them hitting - the ones where the sellers price as motivated to sell, still go quickly.

I did try Fidelity but it never worked out - I was always too late to put an offer online or by phone. IIRC, their listings were updated at midnight Eastern time, one time I put the offer in online sometime after midnight (brand new listing) and then called to follow up in the AM, waited on hold for about 20 minutes (!) and was told I was the second offer (at a very reasonable asking price) and so I'd be the backup offer.

I have put in two offers at particular resale site and had l One of the agents emailed me an said the offer was too low and they wouldn't even presented to the owner. They invited me to contact them so I could put in a reasonable offer. I emailed them back and told them my offer was $5 above there "instant offer" so I felt my offer was already "reasonable". I have yet to receive a reply.

I have had this happen too. In this financial reality, I am not sure the brokers are doing their clients a favor? As a result, we don't own at Beach Club. But I am very happy with the home resorts we do have. We have since stayed at BCV 3x since, and I have learned at I get lost in the primary bedroom/adjoining bathroom situation in the 1br/2br villas. Too many doors! So I'm glad I didn't pay the premium to always book BCV at 11 mo.

 

[tom1944]

I see two BLTs for $144 listed. Sellers won’t sell at any cost, but there are more sellers than ever. Since I checked from yesterday to today, the supply of DVC contracts for sale increased by over 30, from 2,703 to 2,734.

There’s a lot of muscle memory and pride in markets and psychology. People want what the market was at 12 months ago, even 4 months ago. That ain’t where we are now, and where we are going the prices will further deteriorate.

So sellers can be proud. Looking in the rearview mirror to see what’s in front isn’t how markets work. There’s plenty of residual price bias where they saw $200 BLT in April 2021 and at $150 sellers feel like they’ve “already come down enough.” But the listings are $144 and no bid. Sitting for weeks. Which means the market is $130s. Hop on the train, because $130s will be a bargain for sellers. We’re onwards to $120s and below, and Disney won’t be ROFRing with a deep recession.

It’s interesting the reverse doesn’t work in appreciating markets. When VGC went to $300pp, any offer not at full ask was laughed at. “We aren’t at $250 anymore.” Now you have Grand Cal at $230 and dropping like a rock. We’ll be below $200 soon.

Sellers will cling to past pricing and miss the opportunity to get out. DVC had a nice run up the past 10+ years. Interest rates are up and layoffs are starting to happen. Like I said, a year ago I would’ve been laughed at suggesting Grand Cal would be $230pp. Yet here we are. BLT is falling through to prices we haven’t seen in years. Why would I stabilize now? I see 2,734 DVC contracts for sale. Over 300 BLTs. Obviously there aren’t buyers.

While I happen to agree with you I have not found that seller yet.

There are also some particular requirements I want in terms of banked points and total available points for use in 2023 and 2024. That means I want to buy a contract soon.

A second contract is possible and that can be a stripped contract and more time to wait sellers out.

Oh and there was just a good job’s report just announced

 

[kboo]

Which means the market is $130s. Hop on the train, because $130s will be a bargain for sellers. We’re onwards to $120s and below, and Disney won’t be ROFRing with a deep recession.

It’s interesting the reverse doesn’t work in appreciating markets. When VGC went to $300pp, any offer not at full ask was laughed at. “We aren’t at $250 anymore.” Now you have Grand Cal at $230 and dropping like a rock. We’ll be below $200 soon.

I wish it were different, but I tend to agree. Maybe not sure things will go quite as low, or maybe that's just me being hopeful. Either way, I think we have a skewed view on this board because the vast majority of us here have the means to keep our DVC and enjoy trips and, if anything, have the disposable income to buy more DVC and not finance right now. But looking outside our bubbles, I am concerned.

Still cautiously optimistic that rates have stopped rising and new jobs report seems hopeful. But if I've learned anything since 2007 ...

@Stank, what you say may be true. Even so, IMO, there would be fewer sellers and significantly more buyers if Disney Parks made a few changes. (Bring back APs, get rid of park reservations, allow a few advance Genie+ reservations. etc). The current park experience, high ticket prices % general nickel and dining is pushing DVC Members to sell. That factor is perhaps more influential than many care to believe. YMMV.

That may be, but when I've gone during popular times, DVC is still booked up, the parks are still crowded and busy. Maybe the low times (late August, which is when we've been going for 10 years) are even lower than they used to be, but I'm not sure those numbers are what would sell direct DVC, which is what I'm thinking about. I don't think Disney much cares what resale DVC does unless/until it stops direct sales. Maybe that will happen, maybe not - I would go back and look at direct prices during the Great Recession.

 

[CVG]

@Stank, what you say may be true. Even so, IMO, there would be fewer sellers and significantly more buyers if Disney Parks made a few changes. (Bring back APs, get rid of park reservations, allow a few advance Genie+ reservations. etc). The current park experience, high ticket prices % general nickel and dining is pushing DVC Members to sell. That factor is perhaps more influential than many care to believe. YMMV.

Is that a new promotion?

 

[Stank]

I wish it were different, but I tend to agree. Maybe not sure things will go quite as low, or maybe that's just me being hopeful. Either way, I think we have a skewed view on this board because the vast majority of us here have the means to keep our DVC and enjoy trips and, if anything, have the disposable income to buy more DVC and not finance right now. But looking outside our bubbles, I am concerned.

Still cautiously optimistic that rates have stopped rising and new jobs report seems hopeful. But if I've learned anything since 2007 ...

That may be, but when I've gone during popular times, DVC is still booked up, the parks are still crowded and busy. Maybe the low times (late August, which is when we've been going for 10 years) are even lower than they used to be, but I'm not sure those numbers are what would sell direct DVC, which is what I'm thinking about. I don't think Disney much cares what resale DVC does unless/until it stops direct sales. Maybe that will happen, maybe not - I would go back and look at direct prices during the Great Recession.

Yep, just my opinion, which will probably be wrong. But just as we have been amazed at how sturdy DVC pricing has been for years and climbed to highs we couldn’t believe, the reverse can also happen.

If you told people Grand Cal would be $300 with no negotiation 5 years ago, they would’ve laughed at you. If you told people 18 months ago that Grand Cal would be $230 and sitting, people would’ve laughed at you.

I’ve seen BLT fall from $200 to $144 in the past 18 months. I think the volatility of DVC the past 3 years has been incredible. If BLT can go from $150 to $200, why can’t it pass $150 on the way down to $100?

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

New jobs reports are indeed looking more hopeful. The housing market has not crashed, and interest rates are not rising so rapidly. I think there's room to hope. Doesn't necessarily mean DVC resale prices will go up, though.

 

[jlnten17]

I’ve had 2 smaller non-stripped contracts (less than 100 points each) on a site for months - no offers - and price is right - less than I’ve seen on competitors’ sites - I’m thinking of pulling the listings - I don’t really need to sell -

I had one 50 point contract and when I finally did get a low ball offer I was urged to accept it by the listing site. I then pulled the listing because if they felt the offer I received was strong I would be better off to keep the contract and rent out the points as I didn't have to sell at this point.

 

[tom1944]

I have found a contract that meets my requirements and will be making an offer

Not BLT this time but that is okay since we do not expect to book anything at 11 months

I was willing to pay a premium for BLT just not the premium the sellers wanted.

 

[kboo]

Yep, just my opinion, which will probably be wrong. But just as we have been amazed at how sturdy DVC pricing has been for years and climbed to highs we couldn’t believe, the reverse can also happen.

If you told people Grand Cal would be $300 with no negotiation 5 years ago, they would’ve laughed at you. If you told people 18 months ago that Grand Cal would be $230 and sitting, people would’ve laughed at you.

I’ve seen BLT fall from $200 to $144 in the past 18 months. I think the volatility of DVC the past 3 years has been incredible. If BLT can go from $150 to $200, why can’t it pass $150 on the way down to $100?

I see a join date of today - but sounds like you've been on the site for a while. When we bought BLT in 2017, the "lowballs" that were right on the edge of ROFR were $100-110. I hope it doesn't go that low, on my own account, but 2017 was not that long ago!

When I was pricing out the delta between Riviera direct and adding more BLT, I think I was using a "good price" of $130. That was in 2019.

New jobs reports are indeed looking more hopeful. The housing market has not crashed, and interest rates are not rising so rapidly. I think there's room to hope. Doesn't necessarily mean DVC resale prices will go up, though.

Yup. DVC is play money. People need jobs, housing, stability first and then we shall see. Will revenge travel continue or will it taper off? That may have something to do with this too.

@tom1944 - right on. Also you can always add on another contract later if when you need more points.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

@kboo exactly! WDW is reintroducing hotel discounts as revenge travel wanes. But clearly that's not because people have lost their jobs (I know some have, the tech sector in particular, but overall the unemployment rate is remarkably low right now)

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Yep, just my opinion, which will probably be wrong. But just as we have been amazed at how sturdy DVC pricing has been for years and climbed to highs we couldn’t believe, the reverse can also happen.

If you told people Grand Cal would be $300 with no negotiation 5 years ago, they would’ve laughed at you. If you told people 18 months ago that Grand Cal would be $230 and sitting, people would’ve laughed at you.

I’ve seen BLT fall from $200 to $144 in the past 18 months. I think the volatility of DVC the past 3 years has been incredible. If BLT can go from $150 to $200, why can’t it pass $150 on the way down to $100?

I think everyone can agree that the last couple of years isn’t a good indication of the overall DVC market. The same could be said for the real estate and stock market. People just went crazy with the bidding of contracts, homes, and stocks, for multitude of reasons that now seem rash and silly. I agree that past trends do not automatically translate to future performance. But I think it does still reveal the cyclical nature of the economy. During the Great Recession, Disney was actively selling AKL, Aulani, BLT, VGC, and SSR at one point. I can only imagine similar apocalyptic sentiments that were probably expressed at the time. Since then, all those resorts have sold out and are worth more than what they originally sold. I’m not saying the same will happen going forward. I’m saying it’s not the end of the world for the economy, for Disney, and DVC. At least I hope it’s not!

 

[kboo]

During the Great Recession, Disney was actively selling AKL, Aulani, BLT, VGC, and SSR at one point. I can only imagine similar apocalyptic sentiments that were probably expressed at the time. Since then, all those resorts have sold out and are worth more than what they originally sold. I’m not saying the same will happen going forward. I’m saying it’s not the end of the world for the economy, for Disney, and DVC. At least I hope it’s not!

When I need to procrastinate some more, I will go look at the ROFR threads from back then and cry a little. Perhaps will go back to designing that time machine, if anyone has a spare DeLorean around ...

(back then, resale points were treated like direct points!)

 

[808blessing]

What if DVC caps the ability/times to rent out (non-dvc as lead limit) then more people will buy instead of rent? Can they? Availability is still pretty tight so I am guessing these are people securing to rent out. They should at least do the numbers to see how many are actual owners.