Is another recession coming?

[vicki_c]

I agree. Plus, our country is in a much different place than we were during the depression. Almost 50% of Americans receive some sort of welfare. There was no welfare during the depression era.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/12/news/economy/government_safety_net/index.htm

Most reputable sources state the same as this article - 1 in 6 Americans are receiving government assistance of some kind. That is about 17%, nowhere near 50%.

 

[mhsjax]

Boy you guys have on some rose colored glasses dontcha. Sure we didn't have entitlement programs, we also did not have a huge foreign aid program, military budget or 300 million people. Also almost 80% of the population lived in rural places, and the average life span was ~59 if you were a guy and a little longer if you were a gal. We did not have the medical cost because frankly, we did not have medicine. Disease and pestilance routinely killed. Please, it was not the "good ole days"

And lest we try to put previous politicans on a pedestal, don't forget the reason slavery was allowed to exsist in the first place was because the founding fathers did not follow their conciousness and stand up to the Southern delegates who would not have voted for the declaration without some assurance that their livilihood was intact. Translation: they caved under political pressure. no different than the guys we've got now.



All this to say, Yes we are in a recession, yes it will hurt and take some time to get back on footing but once again, it is not the first time we've had hard times.

If any thing, the problem is we can't remember when life wasn't cushy and cozy (we as a nation, not anyone individual. I know many people have had different upbringings.) We've been living "la vida loca" and not caring where the good life was coming from.

My mom, God bless her, would 100% agree with you. She grew up in the depression and newly married and with one child her DH, my father, went off to WWII. I remember her telling me about coca cola cake, it was because they couldn't get sugar, drawing lines up the backs of their legs because they couldn't get stockings. She was somewhat concerned about the economy before she passed, as was my father, but not the extent seen here. Also , they were more financially mature than most people these days, including myself, they didn't depend on anyone or anything to take care of them. And in their good life, which they did have, they lived like the end may come, They weren't cheap, just careful and spent well within their means. Not like today, where most want only the best and the newest, as yes I have been guilty of that myself, but no longer.

 

[eliza61]

My mom, God bless her, would 100% agree with you. She grew up in the depression and newly married and with one child her DH, my father, went off to WWII. I remember her telling me about coca cola cake, it was because they couldn't get sugar, drawing lines up the backs of their legs because they couldn't get stockings. She was somewhat concerned about the economy before she passed, as was my father, but not the extent seen here. Also , they were more financially mature than most people these days, including myself, they didn't depend on anyone or anything to take care of them. And in their good life, which they did have, they lived like the end may come, They weren't cheap, just careful and spent well within their means. Not like today, where most want only the best and the newest, as yes I have been guilty of that myself, but no longer.

And I think that's why this recessions is particularly hard for most. Remember the old saying that "those who don't remember history are doomed to repeat it". I think we are seeing the result of that. Some where in the last 40 years we forgot very basic stuff. Heck, it took a recession to get us to break out of our addiction to credit cards, prior to the recession the national average savings rate was in the negative.

We blame todays politicians but the reality is, they are simply an extension of us. They too thought the good times were always going to roll and as long as we, the public were happy we didn't give a flying flip about what happen. No one thought to question the unsustainable rate of home values, as long as we could use our homes like piggy banks, we didn't give a hoot about the housing market.
I thought I read some where that Since Nixon we've only had 1 administration that did not raise the debt ceiling. Now we act all shaked and shocked that this has happen.

So maybe when we get back on our feets we won't be so quick to forgot the past.

 

[SaraJayne]

I agree. Plus, our country is in a much different place than we were during the depression. Almost 50% of Americans receive some sort of welfare. There was no welfare during the depression era.

I'll dispute the accuracy of your 50% figure, but the rich and corporations receive more "welfare" via tax breaks and tax loopholes than the average American can even imagine.

That needs to be stopped ~ immediately.

 

[Kim♥DISNEY]

And I think that's why this recessions is particularly hard for most. Remember the old saying that "those who don't remember history are doomed to repeat it". I think we are seeing the result of that. Some where in the last 40 years we forgot very basic stuff. Heck, it took a recession to get us to break out of our addiction to credit cards, prior to the recession the national average savings rate was in the negative.

We blame todays politicians but the reality is, they are simply an extension of us. They too thought the good times were always going to roll and as long as we, the public were happy we didn't give a flying flip about what happen. No one thought to question the unsustainable rate of home values, as long as we could use our homes like piggy banks, we didn't give a hoot about the housing market.
I thought I read some where that Since Nixon we've only had 1 administration that did not raise the debt ceiling. Now we act all shaked and shocked that this has happen.

So maybe when we get back on our feets we won't be so quick to forgot the past.

I do worry about our economy and the future, however, I don't think this is the end of it. Our government is trying to get spending under control mainly because they have to ... We can blame both sides, but this problem didn't just occur overnight.

What I really worry about is what will happen 10 to 15 years down the road. There are so many people, who I know, and also mentioned in the news that save very little for retirement. What will happen when all the baby boomers cannot work any longer and social security is cut back?

I feel this is going to be the next major hump is we EVER get over this one.

And I am really an optimistic person ...

 

[Colleen27]

Not to mention the corporations! They receive tax breaks and do they create jobs? Nope they are holding on to record amounts of cash. Same with those small business owners...they Bush tax cuts were extended, the least they could do is create some jobs. Since they aren't going to create jobs I say get rid of the business/corporate welfare.

Tax cuts for the top don't create jobs. Consumer demand does. I don't know how this notion that lowering taxes would promote anything other than investment (much of it overseas or in commodities markets rather than directly into American industry) got to be so widely accepted. It fails the test of basic logic - if you're running a business, would you hire an extra employee or two in response to a tax break even though you're managing just fine with the employees you have? No. It takes increased volume of business to prompt hiring, which is why the response to this whole budget issue is so potentially disastrous - cutting things like SS payments and EITC while maintaining low tax rates at the top of the scale serves to further narrow the pool of customers with money to spend.

BTW, for those talking about the "good old days" you might want to take a look at the top tax rates. They have never in all our history been as low as they are now, but no one seems willing to talk about that as one reason for the trouble we're in.

 

[Muushka]

Oh my. I am wrong. It is almost 50% do not pay income tax. Big difference.

I am so sorry!

 

[Beezle2]

Tax cuts for the top don't create jobs. Consumer demand does. I don't know how this notion that lowering taxes would promote anything other than investment (much of it overseas or in commodities markets rather than directly into American industry) got to be so widely accepted. It fails the test of basic logic - if you're running a business, would you hire an extra employee or two in response to a tax break even though you're managing just fine with the employees you have? No. It takes increased volume of business to prompt hiring, which is why the response to this whole budget issue is so potentially disastrous - cutting things like SS payments and EITC while maintaining low tax rates at the top of the scale serves to further narrow the pool of customers with money to spend.

BTW, for those talking about the "good old days" you might want to take a look at the top tax rates. They have never in all our history been as low as they are now, but no one seems willing to talk about that as one reason for the trouble we're in.

>>>

 

[Kim♥DISNEY]

Tax cuts for the top don't create jobs. Consumer demand does. I don't know how this notion that lowering taxes would promote anything other than investment (much of it overseas or in commodities markets rather than directly into American industry) got to be so widely accepted. It fails the test of basic logic - if you're running a business, would you hire an extra employee or two in response to a tax break even though you're managing just fine with the employees you have? No. It takes increased volume of business to prompt hiring, which is why the response to this whole budget issue is so potentially disastrous - cutting things like SS payments and EITC while maintaining low tax rates at the top of the scale serves to further narrow the pool of customers with money to spend.

BTW, for those talking about the "good old days" you might want to take a look at the top tax rates. They have never in all our history been as low as they are now, but no one seems willing to talk about that as one reason for the trouble we're in.

I could be wrong since I have read this somewhere, but don't have data to support me ... but 1% of the population controls 40% of the money in the U.S. However, the other 99% who only control 60% (the middle class) pay almost double ... if not more in taxes.

I am all for a flat tax (which is what the two senators Obama commissioned about a year ago stated in their report ... their flat tax would be 23% ... much lower than what I pay now.)

 

[Beezle2]

Oh my. I am wrong. It is almost 50% do not pay income tax. Big difference.

I am so sorry!

It bothers me more that we have huge corporations that pay zero in taxes. American workers built those companies over the years and now we get paid back by the jobs leaving and then losing taxes they should be paying.

Thats why I find Ayn Rand's work to be faulty. It's not that people don't want to work, our work is gone so CEO's can be not just rich, but filthy rich.

 

[NotUrsula]

There was no welfare during the depression era.

Not true. The comprehensive Federal welfare program as we now know it did not exist, true, but there were plenty of "welfare" programs in place on local, state and federal levels. In those days it was known as "going on the dole." Many of the state and local programs were funded by loans from the Federal government.

The first Federal program was formally set up with the passage of the Federal Emergency Relief Act in 1933, at the height of the Great Depression, non-farm unemployment at the time was over 37%. (The Relief Act was first proposed during the Hoover administration in December of 1930, but failed to go through until after the election of '32.) Here is the text of the law: http://www1.assumption.edu/users/McClymer/bedfordprototype/toc/FERAtext.html

 

[OceanAnnie]

I'd like to know how much of our monies are going to the IMF. We need to stop policing and propping up other countries. We have to get our own house in order. And it's a tall order at that.

 

[ZephyrHawk]

Another? From where I sit the first one ain't over yet!

Yeah, another Michigander pointing out that our recession has been pretty much non-stop for over a decade now.

 

[luvmy3]

Cutting social security, disability payments or military pensions is NOT the answer. It is a drop in the bucket compared to other spending. If government had NOT borrowed from social security in the huge amounts it has in the past, OR if they would have re=paid the money it took, there would be NO problem maintaining payments.

The elderly, our servicemen and our disabled veterans all worked and paid into the system. Lets start cutting where it is deserved and stop spending where it doesn't need to be spent.

Lets also all take equal responsibility.

1) Flat tax. No refunds. Pick a % and every paycheck is taxed that percentage. Period. If the amount is 17%, everyone pays that amount. This includes welfare recipients to board directors. This also includes congress, representatives, lawyers and yes, even you Mr. President.

2) No more cushy, for the rest of your life retirement checks and medical for congress and house. That would save many a dollar right there.

3) If the balanced budget is not passes, no paychecks for our representatives until it is.

4) Welfare recipients have to work for their checks. Kind of like the programs during the recession, job works type program. Build houses, clean streets and government buildings, parks and city streets. Provide care at schools and after school day care programs. Cook and serve meals for homeless, shut ins, etc. There are a million things that need to be done and a whole army of people to fill the needs.

5) End all unneeded spending immediately. Who cares about the yellow bellied snapping tree mite, if we no longer have a government? Invest in America first. Not China, Iraq or anywhere else in the world.

6) End EIC. I can see subsidizing school lunches, medical care for children, even housing for children. What I find offensive, is taking a portion of citizens, that pay little to no taxes, that receive the greatest amount of money in subsidies, and giving them a tax return that is 3 or 4 times the amount of taxes they paid in for an entire year.

If someone is below a certain income level and the government says they don't have to pay taxes, that's great. But giving them back EXTRA, doesn't make sense.

There are many more things. I realize my opinions will not be popular, but equate this to your family budget. What do you do when you only have enough for the barest items you need? You cut down and budget your $$$$. Shouldn't the government of the US be that smart?

I am in a 27% tax bracket. That is killer. It seems impossibly hard to deal with. I worked very hard, as a single parent, to support my children and make it through school. There was no EIC, government paid daycare, food stamps etc. I made it through, with a lot of hard work and sweat. I would like to see everyone have the chance to be educated, have a good and stable life, but when it means that our country is in a recession, soon to be in a depression, something needs to give!!

 

[nunzia]

I agree. We are entering a double dip. I love your tag line... Where is John Galt? I am reading that right now.

Me too..Ayn Rand had a crystal ball..

 

[QVCshopper]

I'm glad to see some more positive posts. Let's just say I have a different perspective. While most were living it up in the 1990s, I was a teen watching my dad be out of work for four years, followed by a mental breakdown of my mom, then came years of working constantly to put myself through college and graduating early to save money. We are doing fine now, but I still live like I was that teen from long ago.

I'm a borderline Gen X/Y. No, I don't think we will ever have the carefree years back that the Baby Boomers enjoyed for so long. But, maybe we will live responsibly and thriftily like we should always have been doing. Many contributing forces have brought us here, and some areas are much worse off than others. We are still overly fortunate to live in this country, and I will continue to support those needing help in my community, as others helped me when I was younger.

 

[eliza61]

Me too..Ayn Rand had a crystal ball..

except for the fact that, the crystal ball was written in 1957 and they've been predicting the end of the USA constantly and yet, here we are over 50 years later still kicking. I read the book way back in college and study a bit of her philosophy in a philosophy class but I thought the whole concept of "objectivisim" a bit hard to figure out.

So far in my life time:

Communist were going to end the USA.
Socialist were going to end the USA
Equal rights were going to end the USA
Hippies and free love were going to end the USA
Socialism again is going to end the USA
Terrorism and al-queda was going to end the USA.
Gay marriage is still supposedly destroying the country.
and now this.

And yet, we're pretty much still ticking. after all these so called things that were going to destroy this country we always managed to get our collective act together and thrive.

So I'll place my bet on we will have a few rocky years while we work through some hard economic times, we'll continue to have good leadership, bad leadership and every other type in between and we will celebrate the 300th anniversary of our country.

 

[nunzia]

except for the fact that, the crystal ball was written in 1957 and they've been predicting the end of the USA constantly and yet, here we are over 50 years later still kicking. I read the book way back in college and study a bit of her philosophy in a philosophy class but I thought the whole concept of "objectivisim" a bit hard to figure out.

So far in my life time:

Communist were going to end the USA.
Socialist were going to end the USA
Equal rights were going to end the USA
Hippies and free love were going to end the USA
Socialism again is going to end the USA
Terrorism and al-queda was going to end the USA.
Gay marriage is still supposedly destroying the country.
and now this.

And yet, we're pretty much still ticking. after all these so called things that were going to destroy this country we always managed to get our collective act together and thrive.

So I'll place my bet on we will have a few rocky years while we work through some hard economic times, we'll continue to have good leadership, bad leadership and every other type in between and we will celebrate the 300th anniversary of our country.

I don't think this is the 'end' but I think we are in deep doo doo. I don't agree with Ayn Rand's philosophy but the thing that Atlas Shrugged has spot on is the ridiculousness of government interference screwing up how capitalism can work. We are living on credit..it's like you get your paycheck every two weeks and since that isn't enough you max out your card and then get another card and then beg for a higher limit so you can pay your bills next month. How is this sustainable? Who ever thought it would be? It's one big nasty pyramid scheme. I bet Greece thought they'd just truck along too..It is time for us to take care of ourselves and not run to the Goverment nanny for everything we need or think we need. I agree with the large statistic posted about how many people are on some sort of government aid, not the 17% someone else posted. I think food stamps alone are at 20%, then you have medicaid, SS disability, rental assisitance, school lunches, college grants, senior meals, EIC, etc., etc., etc. And as for the biggies, yes, it bothers me that Social Security and Medicare are lumped into that entitlement pot, but as soon as you take out more than you put in, that is just what it becomes. I think I heard that the US hasn't paid a dime on the national debt in 51 years..how ridiculous to keep borrowing and borrowing like we are and the govenrment meddling and meddling and spending our money on outrageous things that governement should have no business sticking their noses into.

 

[eliza61]

I don't think this is the 'end' but I think we are in deep doo doo. I don't agree with Ayn Rand's philosophy but the thing that Atlas Shrugged has spot on is the ridiculousness of government interference screwing up how capitalism can work. We are living on credit..it's like you get your paycheck every two weeks and since that isn't enough you max out your card and then get another card and then beg for a higher limit so you can pay your bills next month. How is this sustainable? Who ever thought it would be? It's one big nasty pyramid scheme. I bet Greece thought they'd just truck along too..It is time for us to take care of ourselves and not run to the Goverment nanny for everything we need or think we need. I agree with the large statistic posted about how many people are on some sort of government aid, not the 17% someone else posted. I think food stamps alone are at 20%, then you have medicaid, SS disability, rental assisitance, school lunches, college grants, senior meals, EIC, etc., etc., etc. And as for the biggies, yes, it bothers me that Social Security and Medicare are lumped into that entitlement pot, but as soon as you take out more than you put in, that is just what it becomes. I think I heard that the US hasn't paid a dime on the national debt in 51 years..how ridiculous to keep borrowing and borrowing like we are and the govenrment meddling and meddling and spending our money on outrageous things that governement should have no business sticking their noses into.

but the current housing market mess has proven the "government interferance" argument false. Banks went cuckoo as soons as we got out of regulations. They went buckeyed crazy with greed, dang near rape, pillared and plundered the financial industry and then had the nerve to come crawling back to the feds for help.

I'm totally cool with limited government interference just make sure it's total. so my first poposal, get rid of all government tax credits for business. Tax them on their total profits including the crap they move to international dummy companies. get rid of all subsides that government gives to energy companys. Why are we giving billions in subsidies to oil companies that rake in trillions in profits. but you can't scream the government is interfering when the corporations are spending billions on lobbyist to get exactly the benefits that help them. So I agree just make sure it's a total clean cut. not this crap where you get the benefits and yet don't want the regulation.I'm totally on board with that. lastly, who gets to define government business? Personally I didn't htink we had any business invading a bunch of countries but we spent trillions on that and I would definitely have preferred my money go to some old lady needing food stamps than what we've spent in Afghanistan. You may have different priorities, So exactly who gets to decide what is important?

And respectfully speaking but that's the great thing about statistics, they really don't need your agreement. 50% of this country is not on government assistance. whether you agree with that number or not is pretty moot.

According to abcnews every week 10,000 citizens become baby boomers, so whether you call it entitlement or they call it "earned". No one is going to get rid of ss or medicaid any time soon, so we better come up with a plan because no one is going to stop running to "nanny governement" any time soon.

 

[nicki.momof3]

Another? From where I sit we haven't been in one.

I would love to sit where you are. I think you are one of the select few in the country that did not feel the "current" or ifrst recession.