Irrational DVC Resale Pricing???

[Derf]

I know I must be missing something here, so please help me out. I'm really having trouble understanding the pricing PREMIUM that some of the DVC resorts with contracts that expire in 2042 have over SSR with a contract expiration of 2054. Generally, if you look at the ROFR thread, BWV, BCV, and VWL all seem to sell for $5 to $10 MORE per point than SSR and OKW (2042) trades about the same as SSR, but you get to use the points you are purchasing for 12 FEWER years. It can't be about maintenance fees either as BWV, BCV, VWL, & OKW are not lower than SSR.

So, is this all really about preferring a resort so much so that you feel you need to have an 11-month booking window and are willing to pay a premium if necessary? Or is there something else going on here?

Thanks for your input.

 

[Ryansdad0727]

You got it. It is also about demand. SSR is huge and BCV, BWV and VWL are not as big and so they are more sought after. My home resort made little difference to me so i bought at SSR. I wanted the extra years for a cheaper price. It's all about personal preference.

 

[Derf]

You got it. It is also about demand. SSR is huge and BCV, BWV and VWL are not as big and so they are more sought after. My home resort made little difference to me so i bought at SSR. I wanted the extra years for a cheaper price. It's all about personal preference.

Wow, I guess if I wanted to vacation each year at a peak time at a particular resort, then I understand the logic. But I would imagine that most people aren't that way and it seems like SSR would be the way to go for the vast majority of folks.

Do you also think that most people don't understand or don't take into consideration that they are getting 12 fewer years to use the points they are buying when they are comparing resales?

 

[JWG]

Wow, I guess if I wanted to vacation each year at a peak time at a particular resort, then I understand the logic. But I would imagine that most people aren't that way and it seems like SSR would be the way to go for the vast majority of folks.

Do you also think that most people don't understand or don't take into consideration that they are getting 12 fewer years to use the points they are buying when they are comparing resales?

I think there are a lot of people who really want to stay at the Epcot area resorts. They're great for F&G and F&W, BCV has a popular pool and they're small. Limited # of available rooms.

2042 is still 32 years away. Unless you're buying this to will to your kids, I don't think expiration year is a big consideration.

I did notice that a few resales went up in price yesterday as we're watching them closely. Thought that was odd. Some BLT contracts jumped $3-$5 per point?!

 

[mouseaider]

We are in this process right now and have a BWV contract in ROFR as we speak.

When I checked the resale market I saw I had a 100 point BWV and a 120 point SSR resale out there, both with 2009 points banked. They were with in $200 total of each other. While I would have liked to have the extra points at SSR, we would really love to stay at BWV one day for the F&W Fest. But the smaller contract made sense for us at a better location. From BWV we can walk to Epcot and DHS and it's all about the 11 month booking window.

It's all location, location, location.

 

[wildernessDad]

What is peak time to the general populous is not necessarily peak DVC time. For example, the time between thanksgiving and Christmas is general slow crowd wise, but it's busy DVC wise.

 

[Derf]

While I would have liked to have the extra points at SSR, we would really love to stay at BWV one day for the F&W Fest.

I am in ROFR with my first DVC contract now, so I don't know the answer to this:

Is it not possible or extremely difficult to get an EPCOT DVC at 7 months for any dates of the F&W? I would have assumed that there would have been some availability 7 months out during a 30 day+ celebration.

 

[chalee94]

i don't think you know what the word "irrational" means...

econ 101: supply and demand set the market price.

there are a lot of SSR points out there.

there's simply not as much demand to own at SSR. not even for an extra 12 years of ownership.

that means prices will be lower. (some people irrationally believe that ROFR props up market prices - therefore, SSR is lower than BCV because DVC isn't as interested in protecting SSR owners' investment as they are BCV owners. but that's just not the case.)

lots of SSR buyers say they are buying at SSR but never intend to stay there - there is a basic math problem with that supposition. some SSR owners will be able to trade out at 7 months or less for their preferred DVC resort but many will wind up disappointed - and look to sell.

if you've got to stay at BCV during F&W or VWL during december, then having the 11 month window matters.

 

[mouseaider]

I am in ROFR with my first DVC contract now, so I don't know the answer to this:

Is it not possible or extremely difficult to get an EPCOT DVC at 7 months for any dates of the F&W? I would have assumed that there would have been some availability 7 months out during a 30 day+ celebration.

I hear it is almost impossible and we are not taking any chances.

 

[Derf]

2042 is still 32 years away. Unless you're buying this to will to your kids, I don't think expiration year is a big consideration.

Yes, that is true. 32 years is a long time, but I would assume that an SSR contract could be sold for something fairly substantial in 2042 as it would still have 12 years of life on it???

 

[JWG]

Yes, that is true. 32 years is a long time, but I would assume that an SSR contract could be sold for something fairly substantial in 2042 as it would still have 12 years of life on it???

Hard to say. OKW users were given the option to "buy" an extension to 2057, which was overpriced and apparently didn't sell well. At that point, AKV will also be good until 2057 and BLT to 2060. So, time will tell.

I assume by 2042 there will be DVC resorts at Grand Floridan, Polynesian and that others will have undergone refurbs to extend them out. I don't think that 2042 date is going to be a cliff for DVC owndership to fall off of like it appears today.

 

[yitbos96bb]

What is peak time to the general populous is not necessarily peak DVC time. For example, the time between thanksgiving and Christmas is general slow crowd wise, but it's busy DVC wise.

That's because it IS slow crowd wise and cheap points wise

It's my favorite time to go... early to mid December.

 

[blondietink]

I got a 1 bedroom prerferred view at BWV 7 months out for October with no problem. I think you really just need to plan, and not think you are going to get the Boardwalk view during F & W. Just MHO.

 

[mouseaider]

I got a 1 bedroom prerferred view at BWV 7 months out for October with no problem. I think you really just need to plan, and not think you are going to get the Boardwalk view during F & W. Just MHO.

Well... seeing we are neighbors, you have given me hope.

 

[crisi]

Wow, I guess if I wanted to vacation each year at a peak time at a particular resort, then I understand the logic. But I would imagine that most people aren't that way and it seems like SSR would be the way to go for the vast majority of folks.

Do you also think that most people don't understand or don't take into consideration that they are getting 12 fewer years to use the points they are buying when they are comparing resales?

I'll be in my 70s when my BWV points expire. I'd rather spend the next 35 years at a resort I like and not worry about the seven month window than worry about whether or not I'll get stuck at SSR (a lovely resort, but not one I'm interested in staying at) and still have contract life for my heirs to deal with.

My kids' vacations are their own problems.

I can see the extra years being attractive if I were fifteen years younger. But alas, I am not. Even if I were, SSR wouldn't be attractive - VAKL might be.

 

[disneynutz]

In the last few years, the DVC Membership has doubled. Availability at 7 months for some resorts, room types, and seasons will get more difficult, not easier as time goes on.

Some people have purchased at a resort that has a lower price or lower dues, banking on being able to book a different resort at 7 months. Keep in mind that Disney can change the 11/7 month rules at any time and that the only guarantee per our contract is that you can book at your home resort.

Bill

 

[LisaS]

Is it not possible or extremely difficult to get an EPCOT DVC at 7 months for any dates of the F&W? I would have assumed that there would have been some availability 7 months out during a 30 day+ celebration.

If you call as soon as your 7-month booking window opens you might be able to get a Pool/Garden View room at BWV during F&W. It's doubtful that you will be able to book either Boardwalk View or Standard View however. Only about 20% of the rooms at BWV are classified as Boardwalk View and another 20% as Standard View with the rest (60%) Pool/Garden View. Most people booking BWV want either the great view (Boardwalk View) or want a great deal (Standard View) so those tend to get booked up before the 7-month booking window opens.

BCV is a small resort in a great location with a great pool so it can be difficult for a non-owner to book there at any time.

 

[Chuck S]

Hard to say. OKW users were given the option to "buy" an extension to 2057, which was overpriced and apparently didn't sell well. At that point, AKV will also be good until 2057 and BLT to 2060. So, time will tell.

I assume by 2042 there will be DVC resorts at Grand Floridan, Polynesian and that others will have undergone refurbs to extend them out. I don't think that 2042 date is going to be a cliff for DVC owndership to fall off of like it appears today.

I wouldn't say the OKW extension was overpriced at the orignal offering of $15 per point for 15 years. That is roughly the same per point per year of use that we purchased for in 1992.

I think the problem was that people were putting out money now, for points they couldn't even start to use until 2042. Also, many original OKW owners may simply see themselves as too old (or dead) by 2042 to receive enough use to justify the extension. I did not extend because at 51 years old, I will be 83 years old in January of 2042. Now, I may be healthy enough to enjoy Disney for a few more years...but will I have the money/ability to travel? And there are no young children in the family that would benefit from the extension. So for me, it just didn't make much sense to extend.

That said, I am surprised the extended OKW contracts aren't going for $10 to $15 per point more in the resale market. Wouldn't you assume most people currently looking at resales are younger than 40?

 

[TisBit]

As others have mentioned, there are definitely reasons some people will pay a premium for the epcot resorts...

But there is also the other side of supply and demand. VWL, BCV and BWV's are the smallest resorts, so the least number of points out there to purchase, which will help boost up their numbers, especially with a niche. OKW, SSR and now AKV are the larger of the resorts and will always have more points available on the resale market, meaning more competition between sellers.

It will be interesting to see what happens with BLT, it has an ideal location, but a lot of points. I don't see its prices being greater than the smaller resorts in resale, but maybe a bit more than the larger resorts that don't have the location.

Many SSR (and other larger resort owners) are interested in trying other resorts out, which will put a bigger pressure at the 7 month mark, but I think long term, this will wear down and it will always just be the "new" owners that are shopping around.

We have the advantage of doing a split stay and staying at several resorts this year that we haven't stayed at before. Honestly, I don't think I will feel I HAVE to stay anywhere and will be content getting a room anywhere on property.

 

[Derf]

i don't think you know what the word "irrational" means...

econ 101: supply and demand set the market price.

there are a lot of SSR points out there.

there's simply not as much demand to own at SSR. not even for an extra 12 years of ownership.

that means prices will be lower. (some people irrationally believe that ROFR props up market prices - therefore, SSR is lower than BCV because DVC isn't as interested in protecting SSR owners' investment as they are BCV owners. but that's just not the case.)

lots of SSR buyers say they are buying at SSR but never intend to stay there - there is a basic math problem with that supposition. some SSR owners will be able to trade out at 7 months or less for their preferred DVC resort but many will wind up disappointed - and look to sell.

if you've got to stay at BCV during F&W or VWL during december, then having the 11 month window matters.

Well, a market price can be rational or irrational. Just because the market price of a sold-out Wii on eBay when it first came was 2-3 times list price doesn't mean it was a rational price.

But I think I really do get what some of you are saying. There really are enough people out there that prefer to stay year after year at a low inventory DVC resort during peak times that it drives up the price and people are willing to pay it.

I do think that maybe there is also a set of people out there that really don't take into account the expiration date and would have made a different choice if more informed.