Inventory This High?

[CLE2WDW]

Has anyone ever seen inventory at this level before? I get the daily emails from all the resale shops and I can’t believe how many contracts are for sale and at such deep discounts. This makes me think that the bottom on pricing isn’t close and DVC will continue to allow ROFR to slide downward.

 

[Ursula J]

Where do you go to see inventory, out of curiosity? I've looked at individual sites but is there a place where they all show up?

 

[E2ME2]

Has anyone ever seen inventory at this level before? I get the daily emails from all the resale shops and I can’t believe how many contracts are for sale and at such deep discounts. This makes me think that the bottom on pricing isn’t close and DVC will continue to allow ROFR to slide downward.

Deep Discounts ?? The only Deep Discounts I see are when someone posts their success here on the boards.
As for listings; I can't believe that a lot of contracts are still listed way above what's been reported here since January.
So where are you seeing these deep discounts?

 

[Cfabar1]

I disagree about the deep discounts. There are many for sale it seems, though some posters who research this seem to indicate that inventory is lower than it was earlier.

My personal opinion is that there are so many for sale because in the absence of ROFR, buyers and sellers don’t have the same expectations. It is causing many contracts to just sit. Sellers are hoping ROFR will return any day, and buyers are confident the market hasn’t bottomed, and don’t want to be caught holding the bag.

 

[CLE2WDW]

DVCResaleMarket has a laundry list of contracts for sale. What stands out to me are BLTs under $150/pt, BCV under $140/pt, GFV under $160/pt, and PVB under $160/pt. While these prices are low I have a feeling they are going lower and if you offered 10% under current asking you just might get it.

 

[ocdb8r1]

DVCResaleMarket has a laundry list of contracts for sale. What stands out to me are BLTs under $150/pt, BCV under $140/pt, GFV under $160/pt, and PVB under $160/pt. While these prices are low I have a feeling they are going lower and if you offered 10% under current asking you just might get it.

Please read through the last 10 or so pages of the ROFR thread....these prices you posted aren't low compared to what many are contracting on. BLT often in the 120's and one as low as 115/pt. The posted prices have yet to catch up with the reality of offers.

 

[CLE2WDW]

Please read through the last 10 or so pages of the ROFR thread....these prices you posted aren't low compared to what many are contracting on. BLT often in the 120's and one as low as 115/pt. The posted prices have yet to catch up with the reality of offers.

Whoa thanks for the heads up! That’s incredible how low some of those offers are coming in at.

 

[sndral]

I disagree about the deep discounts. There are many for sale it seems, though some posters who research this seem to indicate that inventory is lower than it was earlier.

My personal opinion is that there are so many for sale because in the absence of ROFR, buyers and sellers don’t have the same expectations. It is causing many contracts to just sit. Sellers are hoping ROFR will return any day, and buyers are confident the market hasn’t bottomed, and don’t want to be caught holding the bag.

A year ago inventory was at 1500 https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...00-for-all-walt-disney-world-resorts-combined since that time listings increased & I’ve yet to see a significant reduction in the number of listings, the high was around 2600 listings, it’s now 2400+ so maybe we‘re past the peak .
The question in my mind is whether the increased inventory is a result of increased supply - more sellers, or decreased demand - fewer buyers. The fact that Direct sales are at historic lows https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men.../5537-dvc-direct-sales-slump-in-february-2023 hints that lower demand may be the driver in the resale market as well. Of course the lack of ROFR means that one significant buyer - DVC - is absent from the market.

 

[Stank]

Total inventory has dropped about -250 from February 1. There could have been that initial rush of supply late 22/early 23 where sellers wanted to exit their contracts with dues season reminding them of their obligation. The ebb and flow will have supply oscillating between record-high-inventory and almost-record-high-inventory.

ROFR is semi-retired as Disney has known demand cratered many months ago. On the demand-side, there’s just no imperative to own a timeshare given the general economic strain. Contract-buying has floundered and is reserved somewhat exclusively for poachers looking to snag 20% discounts in an already discounted market. There’s just not a whole lot of activity.

But as I say anytime I hear someone parrot “low inventory” for housing—Drive around any neighborhood, there’s plenty of inventory; there’re just not signs in the front yards yet. There are 16 million vacant homes; over 17% of homes in Florida sit empty. Not for sale, no one living in them. With the surge in DVC rentals, there seems to be many unused or vacant contracts trying to find a home. Eventually they’ll end up on market.

I think the headwinds for DVC are there’s just so much supply, so much existing ownership base, that not only do you need to maintain churn with new buyers, but to drive prices higher you must have an imbalanced demand-driven market. While we are just a year or so removed from the DVC frenzy, the market has one heck of a hangover with many recently new owners underwater.

 

[Cupcake232]

Whoa thanks for the heads up! That’s incredible how low some of those offers are coming in at.

I thought the prices has dropped quite a bit too but the offers people are putting in and having accepted are pretty amazing! Interest rates for a DVC Mortgage however are less than desirable. I think sellers don’t have much of a choice if they want/need to sell. They either have to come down in price so the payment is reasonable for the buyer (for the folks financing), or not sell. I’m hoping the interest rates come down soon!

 

[Wakey]

DVC owners have had enough of the huge costs just to enter the parks (including Genie, surge pricing, and a few ILL etc, since 2015 prices for park entry are up about 270% or roughly ten times inflation). DVC owners are finding new places to vacation and off loading. This next trip could be our last, I can no longer justify park ticket prices which cost around the same as a weeks package holiday now to take my family to Spain (including all inclusive hotel and flights- I’m in the U.K.).
In fact I‘m just looking at taking 3 of us to Qatar in a 5 star all inclusive hotel with food and all beverages for a week which is very high end , including flights with Qatar Airways for almost exactly the same as it will cost for our next park tickets for 4 alone for a week, with Genie added and 2 ILL. That is how mad the situation has become.
My kids now want to see the rest of the World (we always come 1-2 times a year), and it’s Japan next summer, maybe South Africa, and Thailand, as well as Australia in upcoming years. This jump in thinking was triggered by the sheer unrelenting greed of Disney.
I wasn’t surprised to see Mine Train remains an ILL despite Tron opening, and I’m not surprised to see Genie+ double in price on certain days from launch price.
The company kind of sickens me now, so all I can do is vote with my feet.

 

[E2ME2]

DVC owners have had enough of the huge costs just to enter the parks (including Genie, surge pricing, and a few ILL etc, since 2015 prices for park entry are up about 270% or roughly ten times inflation). DVC owners are finding new places to vacation and off loading. This next trip could be our last, I can no longer justify park ticket prices which cost around the same as a weeks package holiday now to take my family to Spain (including all inclusive hotel and flights- I’m in the U.K.).
In fact I‘m just looking at taking 3 of us to Qatar in a 5 star all inclusive hotel with food and all beverages for a week which is very high end , including flights with Qatar Airways for almost exactly the same as it will cost for our next park tickets for 4 alone for a week, with Genie added and 2 ILL. That is how mad the situation has become.
My kids now want to see the rest of the World (we always come 1-2 times a year), and it’s Japan next summer, maybe South Africa, and Thailand, as well as Australia in upcoming years. This jump in thinking was triggered by the sheer unrelenting greed of Disney.
I wasn’t surprised to see Mine Train remains an ILL despite Tron opening, and I’m not surprised to see Genie+ double in price on certain days from launch price.
The company kind of sickens me now, so all I can do is vote with my feet.

I understand your POV. I hope this decision works well for you, and for others who are voting the same way. I also hope that this will free up more contracts & room availability for me, as I plan to use DVC at WDW for another 10-20 years, health/mobility assumed!

 

[Wakey]

I understand your POV. I hope this decision works well for you, and for others who are voting the same way. I also hope that this will free up more contracts & room availability for me, as I plan to use DVC at WDW for another 10-20 years, health/mobility assumed!

If I hang into DVC it will be to use as a winter retirement getaway as I’m hoping to retire in 7 years max and then have enough points for 3-4 weeks a year.

 

[Bmramaut]

DVC owners have had enough of the huge costs just to enter the parks (including Genie, surge pricing, and a few ILL etc, since 2015 prices for park entry are up about 270% or roughly ten times inflation). DVC owners are finding new places to vacation and off loading. This next trip could be our last, I can no longer justify park ticket prices which cost around the same as a weeks package holiday now to take my family to Spain (including all inclusive hotel and flights- I’m in the U.K.).
In fact I‘m just looking at taking 3 of us to Qatar in a 5 star all inclusive hotel with food and all beverages for a week which is very high end , including flights with Qatar Airways for almost exactly the same as it will cost for our next park tickets for 4 alone for a week, with Genie added and 2 ILL. That is how mad the situation has become.
My kids now want to see the rest of the World (we always come 1-2 times a year), and it’s Japan next summer, maybe South Africa, and Thailand, as well as Australia in upcoming years. This jump in thinking was triggered by the sheer unrelenting greed of Disney.
I wasn’t surprised to see Mine Train remains an ILL despite Tron opening, and I’m not surprised to see Genie+ double in price on certain days from launch price.
The company kind of sickens me now, so all I can do is vote with my feet.

I’m in the total opposite boat. Early 30s, with young children. Currently buying my first DVC contract and my whole experience with Disney has been 2016 and beyond. We see ourselves going once a year and utilize credit card points/discount gift cards to offload the price surging you speak of. Our trips are not park heavy, we really enjoy the ambiance, food, and resorts.
I never experienced the time when DVC members were given better benefits. I could only dream of getting APs for free with membership.
My tipping point into DVC was the rise of cash prices on rooms, which I think they will only continue to do…
I wonder if one day I will be in your shoes too. My husband and I enjoy Disney enough that we will go without children.
The in park cost are insane and I absolutely agree with you. They seems to be thriving through it as genie plus sells out and Disney is a zoo of people during peak periods.
Disney has lessened some of its pricing with free parking and photos included with genie plus. I’m hoping that path forward continues with Iger back at the helm.

 

[mustinjourney]

DVC owners have had enough of the huge costs just to enter the parks (including Genie, surge pricing, and a few ILL etc, since 2015 prices for park entry are up about 270% or roughly ten times inflation). DVC owners are finding new places to vacation and off loading. This next trip could be our last, I can no longer justify park ticket prices which cost around the same as a weeks package holiday now to take my family to Spain (including all inclusive hotel and flights- I’m in the U.K.).
In fact I‘m just looking at taking 3 of us to Qatar in a 5 star all inclusive hotel with food and all beverages for a week which is very high end , including flights with Qatar Airways for almost exactly the same as it will cost for our next park tickets for 4 alone for a week, with Genie added and 2 ILL. That is how mad the situation has become.
My kids now want to see the rest of the World (we always come 1-2 times a year), and it’s Japan next summer, maybe South Africa, and Thailand, as well as Australia in upcoming years. This jump in thinking was triggered by the sheer unrelenting greed of Disney.
I wasn’t surprised to see Mine Train remains an ILL despite Tron opening, and I’m not surprised to see Genie+ double in price on certain days from launch price.
The company kind of sickens me now, so all I can do is vote with my feet.

the chapek era, albeit very short, was marred by constant missteps, which seemed to be fueled by short-sighted greed and ego.

They mistook quick rebound in spending following reopening as long term demand -- and failed to realize it was a lot of people taking advantage of temporary looser work-from-home jobs, revenge vacationing, and "free money" burning a hole in consumers' pockets.

 

[mustinjourney]

I’m in the total opposite boat. Early 30s, with young children. Currently buying my first DVC contract and my whole experience with Disney has been 2016 and beyond. We see ourselves going once a year and utilize credit card points/discount gift cards to offload the price surging you speak of. Our trips are not park heavy, we really enjoy the ambiance, food, and resorts.
I never experienced the time when DVC members were given better benefits. I could only dream of getting APs for free with membership.
My tipping point into DVC was the rise of cash prices on rooms, which I think they will only continue to do…
I wonder if one day I will be in your shoes too. My husband and I enjoy Disney enough that we will go without children.
The in park cost are insane and I absolutely agree with you. They seems to be thriving through it as genie plus sells out and Disney is a zoo of people during peak periods.
Disney has lessened some of its pricing with free parking and photos included with genie plus. I’m hoping that path forward continues with Iger back at the helm.

My first trip to WDW as an adult was January 2016. We got 7 day park hoppers for about $400 each. Those same tickets are around $700 or more today. 75% increase in seven years is just absolutely insane.

It especially hurt b/c my kids were under 3 that first trip -- so we only spent $800 in tickets. Now our tickets are $2800. It's a tough pill to swallow.

 

[RoseGold]

I watch VGF and I've never seen this many listings. And it's not like they are taking their winnings and leaving the casino, which I could argue for 2042s, this is not a great time to be selling VGF.

 

[mustinjourney]

my guess is ROFR is going to be getting pretty light for the foreseeable future. Disney is currently selling Aulani, Riviera, and VGF2 -- and they're about to start selling Disneyland villas AND PVB2. That's a LOT of points they are going to have to unload -- and with interest rates so high and fears of imminent recession, demand is likely going to continue to stay muted.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

DVC has grown too fast. While DVC members make up a very small percentage of the Disney fanbase, it's also not for everyone, especially at current direct prices which is crazy high. Add to that, you have many members who are disgruntled, or moving on from Disney for a myriad of reasons not necessarily negative.

 

[CLE2WDW]

DVC has grown too fast. While DVC members make up a very small percentage of the Disney fanbase, it's also not for everyone, especially at current direct prices which is crazy high. Add to that, you have many members who are disgruntled, or moving on from Disney for a myriad of reasons not necessarily negative.

That and there’s a ticking time bomb of 2042s that are going to continue to devalue rapidly in the coming years. If DVC wanted to breathe new life into the program they would start buying back 2042s and selling them with 2057 expirations. That additional 15 years of use would bolster the OKW/BCV/BWV market significantly.