Independence Air Article.

riu girl

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Jul 8, 2004
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PLease read and give me your opinion. I know I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago but I am still worried that I will not be able to get my BUF-IAD-MCO-IAD-BUF flights Dec.18-31.

Please tell me what you think:


Chapter 11 Filing Possible, Flyi Says
Independence Air Parent Needs Cash
By Bill Brubaker
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, November 10, 2004; Page E01


The parent of Dulles-based low-cost carrier Independence Air warned for the first time yesterday that it will be "forced to consider" a Chapter 11 filing for protection from its creditors if it cannot renegotiate aircraft lease payments of $83 million that it owes in January.

Flyi Inc. said unexpectedly high fuel costs and "fierce competition" from larger rivals United Airlines, US Airways, Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines caused Independence Air's revenue to fall "significantly below anticipated levels."

United responded to Independence's June debut by increasing service from Washington Dulles International Airport, by matching fares and by offering special frequent-flier incentives, Flyi said in its quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

And the other rival carriers either increased or began service to markets that Independence was serving, the filing said.

Flyi said it "cannot sustain" the losses it projects for the fourth quarter and for 2005 without raising more cash. "We expect to have substantial cash needs as we continue to establish ourselves . . . as a low-fare carrier," the filing said.

In one possible sign of a cash crunch, Flyi said it recently failed to pay $8.7 million it owed on the new Airbus A319 jets it is acquiring. Independence has been flying 50-seat regional jets but planned to add Airbus service to Florida this fall. But on Monday, Airbus said it may cancel the delivery of future jets if Flyi doesn't pay up, the filing said. Flyi said the acquisition of Airbus jets is "critical" to its business plan to serve larger markets with longer-haul flights. Further complicating matters, the Federal Aviation Administration hasn't yet certified Flyi to operate Airbus jets.

Flyi is a new face on a 15-year-old Dulles company that, until this summer, was known as Atlantic Coast Airlines Holding Inc.

Atlantic operated regional feeder jets for United and Delta. Under that arrangement, it assumed relatively little financial risk. Atlantic received a fixed fee for operating the flights, leaving the reservations, marketing and customer service duties to the larger carriers.

After filing for bankruptcy protection in December 2002, United tried to reduce the payments it made to Atlantic Coast, whose management responded last fall by announcing plans to start a full-service, stand-alone airline.

Independence began operations from Dulles with one-way fares as low as $29. And the airline budgeted about $30 million for a marketing campaign that included celebrities such as comedian Dennis Miller and singer Chuck Berry.

But Independence has been selling less than half of its seats -- far fewer than the average airline, which flies about 70 percent full. Flyi reported last month that it had lost $82.7 million in the third quarter, compared with a $21.3 million gain in the third quarter of 2003, when the company was still Atlantic Coast.

Flyi finished the third quarter with $198 million in cash and short-term investments, down from $345.4 million at the end of the second quarter.

Some Wall Street analysts predicted last month that Flyi may be forced to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as early as January. But Flyi Chairman Kerry B. Skeen said last month that his company had a plan to improve its liquidity by the end of the year. "We are working very hard to see that we have the resources to weather this storm," he said.

Flyi said yesterday it is trying to raise cash by negotiating with creditors to delay or reduce payments it owes on aircraft leases. The company also said it is trying to sell five of its regional jets and some spare parts.

But if the lease negotiations are unsuccessful, Flyi "believes that its cash balances and cash flow from operations . . . will be insufficient to enable the company to meet its working capital needs" and other financial commitments, the filing said.

Flyi also disclosed that it paid a $1.25 million civil penalty to settle an FAA allegation that as Atlantic Coast Airlines it had "failed to have a properly functioning aircraft inspection program and failed to keep appropriate maintenance records." The FAA, in a June 7 news release, had proposed a $1.5 million penalty, noting the airline had taken immediate remedial action, the filing said.

Flyi said the settlement with the FAA "did not involve any findings of violations." The airline said the FAA is continuing to review its maintenance-records program. "The outcome of this review cannot be predicted at the time, but could result in additional fines or actions by the FAA," the filing said.

Thanks,
Suzy V.
 
Filing for bankruptcy seems to be the thing for airlines to do these days.

Many airlines are in bankruptcy and keep flying. Just keep your eye on them but I doubt they would quit flying that quickly.
 
Bankruptcy seems to be a rebirth for Domestic US airlines, nowadays...

You should see all the fantastic computer equipment USAirways and United have acquired since their bankruptcies...

And keep in mind that United has been in bankruptcy for over 2 years and they are still flying, in fact, they are expanding service world-wide...

So bankruptcy isn't a death-nell, it can be a really beautiful thing...

Wanna buy some waterfront property in Kansas??

:teeth: :teeth: :teeth: :teeth: :teeth: :teeth: :teeth: :teeth:
 
Thanks for the reassuring thoughts. I am just worried that all of a sudden Fly I could file Chpt. 7 instead of Chpt. 11. Am I right that by filing Chpt. 11 they will be flying in Dec. but Chpt. 7 they would "close up shop"? Any thoughts on this?

I know Captain Blue Sky, being a pilot, you must hear info. that I don't. In your opinion, what are the chances of a chpt. 7 filing before the end of December? I have already given up any notion of flying on an A319, but settling for an CRJ for all of my flight segments would be fine. I just want TO FLY Dec. 18 and Dec. 31. I have already reserved a car for Dec. 31 (to drive to BUF from MCO) in case we are stranded.

Any input would be appreciated.

Suzy V.
 

Every article I've read talks about a Jan date for bankruptcy. I wouldn't worry about it. They may start to cancel some flights in routes in which they have a lot of empty seats.
 
This probably won't help ease your worries because there really isn't a way to predict the future. I'm flying on December 11 and 17th with ATA which just recently filed a Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Maybe it's because I fly a couple times a year but I'm not worried about our flights. It's my experience in the past that airlines do try to accomodate ticket holders when things like this happen.

A few years ago, I had tickets from Cincinnati to Florence, Italy with Sabena airlines (Belgian national airlines) who had a code share arrangement with Delta. Before I could fly, Sabena dropped Delta as their code share partner and realigned with American. This had a pretty dramatic effect on my travel plans as I then had to fly American out of O'Hare in Chicago and everything changed. Yes, it was extra time spent trying to rearrange my travel to fit my itinerary without losing precious vacation time but it all worked out. I actually considered it a little bit of an adventure as I ended up flying alone from Chicago and my Cincinnati friend flew alone from Cincinnati via Lufthansa (another story) and we met at our hotel in Florence. We still had a great vacation.

If you can adjust your mind set so that you focus on the vacation, maybe that will help the worry over your flight arrangements because at this point it's totally out of your control. I'm sure you will end up having a wonderful trip and it will all work out.

Sondra :earsgirl:
 
Thanks for all of the input. Sondra, what you say is totally logical. I am just so concerned since I'm sure I air does not code share plus I'll be travelling with 2 young kids (one special needs) and I'm just so concerned that I air will file Chapter 7, not 11. But your right, I have no control over the situation whatsoever. I guess I will just hope for the best.

Also, I believe in the US after Nov. 15, if the airline you bought fares on stops flying suddenly, other airlines no longer have to honor your flights (for stranded passengers).

Is this correct, if so, yikes, another concern!!!!!

Thanks again everybody for the input.

Any more suggestions/thoughts???????

Suzy V.
 
Suzy,

Without knowing much about your financial situation, but knowing how important this trip is to you from your posts here and on FlyerTalk.com, have you thought about possibly getting tickets on another airline?

Unfortunately, your only options are really to wait and see what happens with I-Air or get tickets on another airline. There isn't much else you can do.

A quick check shows that 12/18 - 12/31 from Buffalo to Orlando has fares of about $250 (some lower, some higher) on some other airlines.

If you can get to Rochester, NY (not sure if that's too far for you or not), AirTran has a nonstop to Orlando 12/18 - 12/31 for $186.

Hope this helps,

CarnotaurDad
 
Thanks so much for the input. The 4 I air tickets I purchased are non-refundable (can change them for $25 each and use the new tickets within one year) but that is no good for me since we will not be flying anywhere in the next year.

Buying more tickets is not really an option financially.

What we are planning on doing is simply hoping for the best and praying that I air will get us to MCO on Dec. 18th. If for some reason they stop flying before then, VISA has told us that they will eventually credit our VISA for the amount we paid to I-air.

If we do get to MCO with I air and then become stranded (I air stops flying between the 18th and the 31st) I have a rental car reserved to drive back to BUF.

Does this plan make sense to you?

Thank you so much for taking the time to check flight options for me. I just don't think I can justify buying tickets on another airline when there is a chance that I air will be flying by then.

From what you have read on this board, flyertalk.com and elsewhere , do you think I air will be flying until the end of Dec.? Its the whole chapter 7 issue that worries me, I'm not so concerned with a chapter 11 filing.

Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

Suzy V.
 
Hi Suzy,

Without being an expert in all the financial areas of the airline industry, but being a frequent traveller, I do think that I-Air will be flying at least through the end of December.

Would I book anything on them for a spring trip? Nope. Not a chance.

However, they will make it through the end of 2004 into early 2005.

I've been known to be wrong before, but this is just my opinion.

Best of luck and we'll keep watching the I-Air news!

CarnotaurDad
 
Hi Suzy,

I truly think you will be fine. Consider that Delta has lost $6 Billion dollars since 2001, and they are still with a very full flight schedule.

The fare from ROC to MCO is very attractive (AirTran - $186) but I understand how finances are for families...

And even if they do file Chapter 7, it will take at least 6 months to a year to actually begin the entire process. And since you are flying in the busy holiday time, I think you will definitely be safe...

:wave2: :hug:
 
Am really puzzled by how this Chapter 7 stuff keeps popping up for FlyI....... Chapter 11 maybe, but to go straight to 7 is quite a stretch - and there's only been 1 analyst who's CASUALLY mentioned it. And in the December time frame?????? No one's even hinted at that - even the more negative analysts. I understand you're worried, but you're not being logical here - and yes business is USUALLY logical! The FlyI people here in some position to know (they're based here) are pretty up front about how much cash they're burning thru, but also about how much $$ is on hand....

Now, US is another story....think I'd be concerned about flying them tomorrow ;)
 
Unfortunately, due to all the articles on the Chapter 11 and possible Chapter 7 for I air, not many people will feel comfortable booking flights for next year, their cash flow will be even worst and they will not have the opportunity to regroup and get on their feet - thus then I would expect them to stop flying by Easter time. I think more people are sticking with US Airways and United as they have been around for so long, but Ind. Air is just so new with no loyal customer base. The current PR is going to ruin them. IMHO. We are flying with I Air for Thanksgiving and our flights have changed twice and the flight numbers changed again too. They are just getting on their feet, I wish them luck as a new low cost comptetiter helps keep fares low.
 
SW flies from MCO to BUF. In the VERY UNLIKELY event that Independence stops operations when you're in Orlando I suspect SW will do something to help the stranded PAX. I'm not saying they'll honor your ticket but they may very well at least let you buy a discounted ticket without the normal advance purchase requirements with you having to wait for a refund from VISA.

You may have to standby in MCO for the better part of the day BUT that has to be better than driving for 2 days. You're really worrying much too much. The main problem would be if Independence canceled and combined flights but there really isn't anything you can do. Getting a refund if they do that won't get you to Orlando.
 
The PR is definitely working against IAir right now.... and its a shame that people (besides investors) aren't taking a closer look at it. Correct me if I"m wrong, but from what I see IAir's balance sheet/cash situation is no worse (and arguably better) than US, United, and Delta (w/o factoring in the new pilot's agreement) - RELATIVE to their size and capitalization. You're right that they don't have the same customer loyalty yet, and their FF program doesn't benefit business travelers as much as the LL's.
My Christmas flights w/ them still haven't changed at all - but it's still early!
I still think US will be the first to go though....
 














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