In 2014, which DVC will be the most difficult to book at 7 months out?

[Deb & Bill]

All of them. The cataclysm will happen in 2012, so it will all be over anyway.

 

[kimberh]

Hawaii... more appealing for West Coast to own so East coast owners will try for a trade at 7 months.

 

[epicureangirl]

All of them. The cataclysm will happen in 2012, so it will all be over anyway.

I already went to that class in Catholic School... I guess I'll make sure I 'borrow' those points for use in 2011.

 

[disneymom8589]

400 DVC units in Hawaii? I thought it was a hotel with some DVC units yet to be determined. I better go and read the news release over. I guess other than the proposed small number of units in California, I can't imagine wanting to stay on-property for more than 3 days. I guess I'm jaded, I only go to Disneyland because of the proximity to me... I think Disney World is a superior vacation to Disneyland (I'll probably get flamed!).

So now that the tribe has spoken... I will go and white out my vote off the screen...

I believe the news release said they were going to have 800 rooms and Jim Lewis said that over half were going to be DVC units.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

I believe the news release said they were going to have 800 rooms and Jim Lewis said that over half were going to be DVC units.

yes thats correct

boy Im shocked so many are picking HI
but I dont see too many reasons as to why

anyone picking HI want to elaborate?

 

[sjdisneywedding]

400 DVC units in Hawaii? I thought it was a hotel with some DVC units yet to be determined. I better go and read the news release over. I guess other than the proposed small number of units in California, I can't imagine wanting to stay on-property for more than 3 days. I guess I'm jaded, I only go to Disneyland because of the proximity to me... I think Disney World is a superior vacation to Disneyland (I'll probably get flamed!).

So now that the tribe has spoken... I will go and white out my vote off the screen...

here is one of the links
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/orl-bk-disney100307,0,5671970.story

The Walt Disney Co. announced this afternoon that it will build a more than 800-room hotel and time share on the Hawaiian island of Oahu, billing the project as "Disney's first mixed-use family resort outside of its theme parks."

Jim Lewis, the president of Disney Vacation Club, the company's Celebration-based time-share arm, said at least half of the resort's units would be time-share villas.

 

[pouncingpluto]

I just have the feeling that people who buy at HI are going to want to stay at their home resort more than people who bought at the others.

It's a shame GCV is going to be so small, though! But like others have said, at least there are a lot of decent low-cost options walking distance from the parks. I love staying onsite, but it's much less important to me at DLR than at WDW. And much less of a financial hit not to be able to use DVC points than it would be in Hawaii.

 

[byoung]

Buying Contem when it does happen. Will be booking there at the 11 month.

 

[dvc-NE]

Ssr

Definately a write in vote. OKW should deserve some consideration, also.

 

[veenstra56]

No question, it will be GCV... only 50 units.

 

[epicureangirl]

I just have the feeling that people who buy at HI are going to want to stay at their home resort more than people who bought at the others.

I agree with this, since as a west-coaster Hawaii is a regular destination for many of us -- it is the Florida trips that are a big-deal. Also, for those with Hawaii DVC points, it may be a better deal for them to sell their points (at a premium) when they're not taking a trip there, rather than booking another resort at the 7 month mark. I still think there won't be a lot of Hawaii availability unless you buy there.

Just from the feedback on these boards, it sounds like so many of us don't plan to buy there but will want it at 7-months, that will make the competition even greater.

Still, with the number of rooms you might have a slightly better shot at it than trying to get in at the GCV.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

I just have the feeling that people who buy at HI are going to want to stay at their home resort more than people who bought at the others.

QUOTE]


its a thought but I disagree. I think the highest percentage of people booking at their home resort will be GC. I think the majority of those owners would be buying to specifically visit DL. Then add in the fact that there are only 50 or units to begin with, a very small number of rooms will ever even make it to 7 months


if 50% of units at GC are reserved prior to 7 month that leaves, 25 units.
if 50% of units at HI are reserved prior to 7 months that leaves 200 units.
if 90% of units at GC are reserved prior to 7 month that leaves, 5 units.
if 90% of units at HI are reserved prior to 7 months that leaves 40 units.

thats at equal rates of ressies per resort, but I think GC will be higher than HI because I can see more people buying HI and still thinking about other dvc trips than buying GC and thinking other dvc trips

 

[pcparamedics01]

I think Hawaii

 

[Tinkerdreams]

yes thats correct

boy Im shocked so many are picking HI
but I dont see too many reasons as to why

anyone picking HI want to elaborate?

I chose HI because it is a place I want to visit. I do believe this will be a very popular destination. DVCers on the east coast will want to visit quite often.

Being on the east coast, the travel time (almost a full day from NY to Hawaii), and the cost of the airline tickets, makes this trip once in a great while for us. I have a hard enough time being cooped up in the plane for 3 hours - never mind 12!!

 

[doubletrouble_vb]

I voted other. Then I realized 2014 is only 7 years from today. If nothing else is added to DL then GCV will be the hardest. However I just can't see GCV being the only resort around DL...50 units just doesn't make any sense. That leaves CRV or BCV.

Even though its only 7 years away where else might DVD put a DVC resort to compete with what's already announced? I'm thinking Stowe, VT might be on their list...its a destination for 3/4's of the year (barring mud season) and in close proximity to their northeastern clientele. People who bought there might actually choose not to go to Disney World similarly to HI buyers.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

I voted other. Then I realized 2014 is only 7 years from today. If nothing else is added to DL then GCV will be the hardest. However I just can't see GCV being the only resort around DL...50 units just doesn't make any sense. That leaves CRV or BCV.

Even though its only 7 years away where else might DVD put a DVC resort to compete with what's already announced? I'm thinking Stowe, VT might be on their list...its a destination for 3/4's of the year (barring mud season) and in close proximity to their northeastern clientele. People who bought there might actually choose not to go to Disney World similarly to HI buyers.

I agree on the additional DL dvc resort, so that very well may have an effect on booking there

I dont agree on Stowe though, its nice and all, but I cant imagine that being a highly sought after location for anyone outside of the NE.

 

[AKV707]

I think CRV. It could be a mixed use resort like Jambo at AKV or GCV, with a limited number of DVC villas. Most DVC members will most often want to go to WDW, and CRV with an MK view and the monorail will be one that many will try to book at 7 months.

 

[pouncingpluto]

I just have the feeling that people who buy at HI are going to want to stay at their home resort more than people who bought at the others.

QUOTE]


its a thought but I disagree. I think the highest percentage of people booking at their home resort will be GC. I think the majority of those owners would be buying to specifically visit DL. Then add in the fact that there are only 50 or units to begin with, a very small number of rooms will ever even make it to 7 months


if 50% of units at GC are reserved prior to 7 month that leaves, 25 units.
if 50% of units at HI are reserved prior to 7 months that leaves 200 units.
if 90% of units at GC are reserved prior to 7 month that leaves, 5 units.
if 90% of units at HI are reserved prior to 7 months that leaves 40 units.

thats at equal rates of ressies per resort, but I think GC will be higher than HI because I can see more people buying HI and still thinking about other dvc trips than buying GC and thinking other dvc trips

But those numbers in and of themselves don't mean anything. You have to consider the supply in proportion to demand. But you still may be right... maybe HI is too expensive a trip, and the demand for California rooms will be proportionally greater.

I actually hope you're right, because HI is so expensive to visit that I would really want to use points! But I can manage DLR on cash without trouble, given all of the options in various price ranges.

 

[epicureangirl]

If it comes down to "Buy where you want to stay" then I think that both Hawaii and GCV will be used often by their owners. Hawaii is not expensive from the West-Coast, perhaps a few hundred $ more in airfare, but after that it is not too different (no park passes to buy!).

If I had to go to Hawaii and couldn't get into DVC I could still be very happy, but Disneyland? If I couldn't get the GCV I'd be very disappointed. Sorry if I offend anyone, but the Anaheim area IMO is a dump and the hotel rooms are often shabby, or at least not the * level they are supposed to be. I've stayed at the Hyatt (new rooms) and the new Hilton, and both are just okay. Trying to get a true 4* or 5* in the area is a joke, and I don't see anything right now that could measure up to the GCH (is that the right acronym for the Hotel?). After staying on-site in a 1 bdr or greater, I don't think I could ever go back to a regular hotel in the area. No way, no thank you. I love DVC.