If you were a betting man…

[Brittleebee]

I’ve really enjoyed the recent discussion about the price decreases we are starting to see trickle into the market. As someone who has been looking to get into the world of DVC for a little while now, I’m certainly being enticed by the current market moves. For now, I’m greatly enjoying tracking what data I can find and nerding out about it.

I’m most curious in what the average DVCer thinks the market is going to do. Let’s pull out our crystal balls and take bets based solely on what facts we have and lots of assumption.

1.) When does the ROFR monster awaken from its peaceful slumber?

2.) When will the correction end and we start to see a climb again listed price per point?

3.) What will price per point look like on all the resorts by the end of this year? Who retains the crown for most sought after contract? Which resorts drop like rocks?

4.) Will we see a big buy in of new resale owners due to this perfect storm of more affordable inventory and the ROFR lady’s hiatus? Will this create a climb in price?

 

[Brittleebee]

One more I forgot to ask:

If you were in the market right this second for a purchase, what resort do you think holds the most value? What resorts would you absolutely not consider?

 

[AC168]

I think Disney has better places to use its money than exercising ROFR for a while.

I’d be most comfortable with the relative value locations such as SSR, AKL, AUL but an outlier BLT or VGF is interesting also.

VGC is it’s own world sort of and pretty safe even with VDH coming.

 

[Bearval]

I’ve really enjoyed the recent discussion about the price decreases we are starting to see trickle into the market. As someone who has been looking to get into the world of DVC for a little while now, I’m certainly being enticed by the current market moves. For now, I’m greatly enjoying tracking what data I can find and nerding out about it.

I’m most curious in what the average DVCer thinks the market is going to do. Let’s pull out our crystal balls and take bets based solely on what facts we have and lots of assumption.

1.) When does the ROFR monster awaken from its peaceful slumber?

2.) When will the correction end and we start to see a climb again listed price per point?

3.) What will price per point look like on all the resorts by the end of this year? Who retains the crown for most sought after contract? Which resorts drop like rocks?

4.) Will we see a big buy in of new resale owners due to this perfect storm of more affordable inventory and the ROFR lady’s hiatus? Will this create a climb in price?

With the unknown direction of the economy and interest rates rising I feel the ROFR monster will be sleeping for the rest of 2023 and into 2024. Disney has other places funding is needed and they will focus on getting RIV sold. DVD will only ROFR if they have a demand for direct points, they will not stock pile in my opinion. This will benefit them in that they will be able to buy resale at rock bottom prices and then turn around and double it.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

I don't feel like answering all those questions but my targeted stab at #3 is that Riv resale prices will fall. The limitations for resale buyers reach the point of risking spending money for nothing. The dues owed to Disney are THE SAME as if bought direct, the contract length is the same, yet if you aren't a perfect planner with unchanging life circumstances you might be stuck with resale Riv points at <7months which may expire unused due to complete lack of ability to use them at some other resort -- and as Riv occupancy fills up with the eventual selling out of the resort + the growing population of Riv resale buyers whose bookings are limited to Riviera.

Imagine missing your opportunity to use your Riv points by 8-9 months out or whatever, and then everything is booked, and then you have useless points which can neither be used at any other resort nor rented out, for which you're paying dues. I can't believe current resale prices are respectable i.e. contending with the prices of many other resorts.

Of course the goal is to book at 11 months and be sure about what you're doing. But as a guy who's now ~40 with kids, it doesn't always work that way. You need flexibility.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

1. When the Fed interest rate is back at 0%.

2. 2025

3.
Monorail in the 140s
CCV, BCV, RR 120s
BWV 100s
BRV AKV AUL 90s
SSR OKW 70s
VB HHI 50s

4. No, not from new resale owners. Disney will have lots of value/moderate/deluxe sales. Existing owners that have a lots of points already will gobble up great deals.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

I’ve really enjoyed the recent discussion about the price decreases we are starting to see trickle into the market. As someone who has been looking to get into the world of DVC for a little while now, I’m certainly being enticed by the current market moves. For now, I’m greatly enjoying tracking what data I can find and nerding out about it.

I’m most curious in what the average DVCer thinks the market is going to do. Let’s pull out our crystal balls and take bets based solely on what facts we have and lots of assumption.

1.) When does the ROFR monster awaken from its peaceful slumber?

2.) When will the correction end and we start to see a climb again listed price per point?

3.) What will price per point look like on all the resorts by the end of this year? Who retains the crown for most sought after contract? Which resorts drop like rocks?

4.) Will we see a big buy in of new resale owners due to this perfect storm of more affordable inventory and the ROFR lady’s hiatus? Will this create a climb in price?

1. Not for a while. Disney is treading water. But they will have it pop up periodically to throw you off.
2. Not until annual passes come back. So if they never come back, Dvc’s long term trajectory is down. People will not continue to add on when they cannot access the parks with an annual pass.
3. Agree with previous poster that RIV resale will go down. It’s just too weird/stressful to have to book at one resort. Especially for dvc people who are used to booking wherever they want. People who have bought resale RIV will also tire of the entire process.
4. No
5. Buy SSR. Great resort, great price right now. Low dues.

 

[vdangelo239]

Resale owner here with 300 points across 4 resale contracts (Poly / BW / SSR) just for context...here is my opinion...

1.) When does the ROFR monster awaken from its peaceful slumber? - DVC has too much to sell - I do not see ROFR awakening until they start to see sales data that screams the resale market is eating into their ability to sell the new DL tower, Poly tower, Riv, GFV. If they determine they need to spend money to make money in new sales, you will see it wake up I think. Disney can spend if they want to.

2.) When will the correction end and we start to see a climb again listed price per point? - I agree with a few other posters, I think you are looking at 2025 - AFTER the Poly Tower is a year + into its sales.

3.) What will price per point look like on all the resorts by the end of this year? Who retains the crown for most sought after contract? Which resorts drop like rocks? I think the 2042 resorts (especially OKW) start to drop like a rock ($50 per point for OKW is my prediction). The non-2042 resorts I think will remain stable for where they are now.

4.) Will we see a big buy in of new resale owners due to this perfect storm of more affordable inventory and the ROFR lady’s hiatus? Will this create a climb in price? - No - because there is no stimulus money and the econony is not great. If you do see a huge influx, all it will lead to is a lot of folks taking on debt to buy-in and may be in a position to re-sell in the next 3/5 years which will leave it in more of a mess than it is now. E.g. if you buy OKW today cheap with a DVC loan from one of the companies offering them, in 5 years you cannot afford it any longer - they're re-selling for even less now with 14 years left to get back as much of the loss as possible.

 

[havoc315]

I’ve really enjoyed the recent discussion about the price decreases we are starting to see trickle into the market. As someone who has been looking to get into the world of DVC for a little while now, I’m certainly being enticed by the current market moves. For now, I’m greatly enjoying tracking what data I can find and nerding out about it.

I’m most curious in what the average DVCer thinks the market is going to do. Let’s pull out our crystal balls and take bets based solely on what facts we have and lots of assumption.

1.) When does the ROFR monster awaken from its peaceful slumber?

Not for the foreseeable future. With VDH and Poly2 opening sales within the next 12-18 months, with so many resorts open for direct sales, I do not expect to see significant ROFR movement.

2.) When will the correction end and we start to see a climb again listed price per point?

For 2042 resorts, we may never see prices truly "rise" again. In inflation is high enough, all prices may rise, but the 2042 resorts will lag inflation. The reality of the contract duration is sinking in. They will ultimately decline to 0 in 19 years... It may not be a totally straight line, but we will never see 2042 resorts going for $170 per point again.

For the longer contract resorts, we may start to see a bottoming out soon. But I still don't expect to see steep price increases while ROFR sleeps.

3.) What will price per point look like on all the resorts by the end of this year? Who retains the crown for most sought after contract? Which resorts drop like rocks?

guesses:

AKV: $120
BLT: $145
BCV: $135
BWV: $110
BRV: $105
CCV: $155
GFV: $160
OKW (2042 contracts): $95
Poly: $155
RIV: $130
SSR: $100

4.) Will we see a big buy in of new resale owners due to this perfect storm of more affordable inventory and the ROFR lady’s hiatus? Will this create a climb in price?

No and no. The lack of demand and market availability saturation has driven prices down. At low enough prices, things will stabilize. You're not going to see a massive demand surge that causes prices to start sharply rising again.

A big factor will be the number of new resorts. With so many open long-term contracts with incentivized points..
If you can get RIV, VGF, Poly, VDH, AUL -- All for $190ish per point.... Becomes harder to find buyers willing to pay $160+ for resale.

 

[sleepymouse]

I feel like practically no ROFR is unheard of, so would be surprised if the ROFR monster does not awaken soon. I am going against the grain and saying it will begin to stir from its slumber this spring. It will be sleepy but awake.

 

[RoseGold]

When does the ROFR monster awaken from its peaceful slumber? Who retains the crown for most sought after contract?

I've been following DVC pricing for years, and I have no idea what you are asking. This is a timeshare, points are points.

I'm not buying now, because I'm too uncertain about Disney's decisions in general. If that's not you, then sure, buying now while prices are low could be good. It's your money.

DVC has always been cyclic, like the economy in general. None of that is new.

 

[happythoughts & pixiedust]

1.) When does the ROFR monster awaken from its peaceful slumber?

September 2023

2.) When will the correction end and we start to see a climb again listed price per point?

September 2023. But the increases in prices will be slow and steady. I don't see a repeat of the crazy jumps we saw in 2021 and early 2022

3.) What will price per point look like on all the resorts by the end of this year? Who retains the crown for most sought after contract? Which resorts drop like rocks?

Grand Cal loses its crown as most "in demand" contract. Grand Cal will likely drop like a rock when VDH goes on sale. Beach Club and Boardwalk will remain in demand despite 2042 expiration. Other 2042 resorts start to fall fast. Poly resale becomes the "most sought after contract" when it's announced that Poly2 will be part of the same association. (Sort of the reverse of what happened with VGF, which was expensive and undercut by direct pricing). Poly is cheap and now there will be a more compelling reason to own there - putting upward pressure on existing Poly resale.

Biggest winner: Poly resale
Biggest loser: Grand Cal

Price predictions:
VGF - 170
PVB - 170
BLT - 165
CCV - 165
BRV - 100
BWV - 135
BCV - 155
RR - 135
AKV - 130
SSR - 115
OKW - 100
VGC - 200
AUL - 115
HH - 70
VB - 60


4.) Will we see a big buy in of new resale owners due to this perfect storm of more affordable inventory and the ROFR lady’s hiatus? Will this create a climb in price?

Probably not. I don't think prices are going to get low enough to spawn a huge wave of resale buyers. I think some people will take advantage of the good prices and that they will slowly drift upward again. Nothing ground shaking.


5.) If you were in the market right this second for a purchase, what resort do you think holds the most value? What resorts would you absolutely not consider?

With the announcement of VDH on-sale date imminent, I would not buy at Grand Cal. It's been cratering recently and no reason for it to stop once Disney drastically increases supply in a shiny new building.

If you like to gamble, buy Poly. You can probably find it really cheap (cheaper than BLT, VGF, CCV, BCV) and it has reasonably low dues. If Poly2 is the same association then Poly1 is a big winner. You'll likely need to own Poly to book the new tower, which will make it necessary to own and drive up demand. However, if it's a new association, Poly1 value drops. Biggest risk, biggest reward potential.

I also think Grand Floridian resale offers great value right now. It's come off it's high prices, has low dues, and a long expiration. It's one of the most affordable resorts to own right now and has good potential for appreciation. Copper Creek is also right up there. One of the most affordable to own, studios are very in demand, must own for key times, and good potential for appreciation.

Saratoga, Aulani, and Riviera are also cheap to own and maintain, but I think less potential for appreciation.

 

[Sunnyore]

My prediction is ROFR monster will awaken in March. My prediction has no scientific basis other than I have a contract waiting for ROFR and I told a guide yesterday that the lady is passing on everything! Luckily I didn’t give them my name but I seriously hope I didn’t jinx myself

I didn’t need more points but I just can’t resist to miss out on a fire sale.

 

[ClaraOswald]

1.) When does the ROFR monster awaken from its peaceful slumber?

September 2023

2.) When will the correction end and we start to see a climb again listed price per point?

September 2023. But the increases in prices will be slow and steady. I don't see a repeat of the crazy jumps we saw in 2021 and early 2022

3.) What will price per point look like on all the resorts by the end of this year? Who retains the crown for most sought after contract? Which resorts drop like rocks?

Grand Cal loses its crown as most "in demand" contract. Grand Cal will likely drop like a rock when VDH goes on sale. Beach Club and Boardwalk will remain in demand despite 2042 expiration. Other 2042 resorts start to fall fast. Poly resale becomes the "most sought after contract" when it's announced that Poly2 will be part of the same association. (Sort of the reverse of what happened with VGF, which was expensive and undercut by direct pricing). Poly is cheap and now there will be a more compelling reason to own there - putting upward pressure on existing Poly resale.

Biggest winner: Poly resale
Biggest loser: Grand Cal

Price predictions:
VGF - 170
PVB - 170
BLT - 165
CCV - 165
BRV - 100
BWV - 135
BCV - 155
RR - 135
AKV - 130
SSR - 115
OKW - 100
VGC - 200
AUL - 115
HH - 70
VB - 60


4.) Will we see a big buy in of new resale owners due to this perfect storm of more affordable inventory and the ROFR lady’s hiatus? Will this create a climb in price?

Probably not. I don't think prices are going to get low enough to spawn a huge wave of resale buyers. I think some people will take advantage of the good prices and that they will slowly drift upward again. Nothing ground shaking.


5.) If you were in the market right this second for a purchase, what resort do you think holds the most value? What resorts would you absolutely not consider?

With the announcement of VDH on-sale date imminent, I would not buy at Grand Cal. It's been cratering recently and no reason for it to stop once Disney drastically increases supply in a shiny new building.

If you like to gamble, buy Poly. You can probably find it really cheap (cheaper than BLT, VGF, CCV, BCV) and it has reasonably low dues. If Poly2 is the same association then Poly1 is a big winner. You'll likely need to own Poly to book the new tower, which will make it necessary to own and drive up demand. However, if it's a new association, Poly1 value drops. Biggest risk, biggest reward potential.

I also think Grand Floridian resale offers great value right now. It's come off it's high prices, has low dues, and a long expiration. It's one of the most affordable resorts to own right now and has good potential for appreciation. Copper Creek is also right up there. One of the most affordable to own, studios are very in demand, must own for key times, and good potential for appreciation.

Saratoga, Aulani, and Riviera are also cheap to own and maintain, but I think less potential for appreciation.

But for people like me, who love the Grand Californian, it sounds like it would be the perfect time to buy in and be able to enjoy trips there at a nice price. Might not be great if/when we want to sell down the road but I would never bank on that with any luxury purchase anyway. I'd love to see that 200pp so I hope you're right.

 

[AC168]

VGC and VDH are potentially interesting. I might add at VGC if it dips a lot but I doubt this will happen. The reason I doubt it is that VDH is newer but not obviously better and perhaps the bigger issue is I’m thinking VDH will be priced high enough that it won’t make sense to sell VGC to buy VDH though it may make sense to buy some VDH.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

VGC and VDH are potentially interesting. I might add at VGC if it dips a lot but I doubt this will happen. The reason I doubt it is that VDH is newer but not obviously better and perhaps the bigger issue is I’m thinking VDH will be priced high enough that it won’t make sense to sell VGC to buy VDH though it may make sense to buy some VDH.

I am wondering if Disney will get greedy and make the point charts so high on VDH that VGC contracts become even more expensive

 

[Royal Consort]

The reason I doubt it is that VDH is newer but not obviously better

Bingo.

Resale VGC will do just fine. It's nothing like VDH and with so few rooms owners at VDH will covet staying there...and can't. Heck, new members may start adding on at VGC once they become acquainted with DVC at DL.

 

[happythoughts & pixiedust]

But for people like me, who love the Grand Californian, it sounds like it would be the perfect time to buy in and be able to enjoy trips there at a nice price. Might not be great if/when we want to sell down the road but I would never bank on that with any luxury purchase anyway. I'd love to see that 200pp so I hope you're right.

yes, I agree. Nothing wrong with Grand Cal, I just wouldn't buy it until after VDH goes on sale. I think within a couple months of VDH selling Grand Cal prices will settle in whatever their bottom will be - which I still think will be higher than the direct price for VDH because it's so small and so well loved.

 

[happythoughts & pixiedust]

VGC and VDH are potentially interesting. I might add at VGC if it dips a lot but I doubt this will happen. The reason I doubt it is that VDH is newer but not obviously better and perhaps the bigger issue is I’m thinking VDH will be priced high enough that it won’t make sense to sell VGC to buy VDH though it may make sense to buy some VDH.

I agree. I doubt people with sell VGC to buy VDH, but I'll bet a lot of people who would have bought VGC will buy VDH instead. I would be surprised with VGC dropped below what VDH will sell for with incentives. I'm guessing VDH will sell for 200-220 w/ incentives to current DVC members. I could see VGC reaching parity there.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

A lot of wishful thinking here. Some of these prices folks are coming up with are close to what they were when we came out of the Great Recession and this isn’t that. The parks are filled to the brim. Would I love to snag a contract for a song! Yea! And for sure things will come back to earth but they aren’t going to be pre- 2017 prices.

And VGC, yeah I own there and I paid a great price years ago TG, but I am certain that VDH is going to make VGC that much more coveted. VDH is NOT VGC. Only Disney Seas has a hotel with a better location. The restaurants, the grandeur. Yeah a lot of people are gonna walk through and wish they didn’t have to keep walking another 15 minutes.