From TPG's interview with Marriott’s SVP of Loyalty:
TPG: Probably the number-one negative thing that I’ve heard from legacy SPG cardmembers is that with the new conversions, you’re paying more for a card that offers less base earn on everyday spending. Currently, you earn 1 point per dollar, which would be 3 in the new program, and now with the non-premium SPG Amex cards it will be 2 points, which is a 33% decrease in everyday spend. How do you explain that to cardmembers? And David, by the way, launched the SPG co-brands years ago.
DF: Most cardmembers spend under $35,000 [on the card], so if you spend under that amount, the card just got richer. On your everyday spend, it’s true, it’s going to 2 points per dollar, but you also get a free night certificate up to 35,000 points, which is why it gets richer for anyone who spends under $35,000. For those who spend more, we have the new luxury card, which has a free night certificate up to 50,000 points, a $300 statement credit when you stay in our hotels, $100 for Global Entry. And all of our cards now have 15 night credits toward status, which we never had before.
That's some spin. Marriott reduces base earn by effectively 1 point per dollar on the SPG cards, but claims it's a good deal because cardholders get a free night certificate for a stay worth up to 35k points even though most people spend less than $35k/yr. on their SPG card. We went over this with the IHG cards: a certificate for a free stay capped at 35k points is not the same as 35k points.