So I've read through the Points Guy interview from here: https://thepointsguy.com/news/marriotts-david-flueck-combined-program-questions/
I'll share a couple of thoughts that tie directly and indirectly to your comment. I had been meaning to post this for awhile anyways
We’re taking all hotels and placing them in the new award chart, and as we started to do this we found more properties moving down in cost than are moving up. Where properties fall in the charts will be announced in about six weeks — we have 6,500 hotels to get through so it’s a long process. And not only are prices going down, but we have the off-peak prices [which SPG members have never had].
- To me - this means that they are looking at each property independently and assigning it to the appropriate category. It doesn't sound like they are taking all Marriott Cat 5 and putting them all in the new Cat 4 for example. They may have started with a premise like that but there is obviously thought going into it.
- I like the statement of "more properties moving down in cost than are moving up" - if that turns out to be a lie, they would look terribly bad, so why lie about it?
People love the Marriott Flight and Hotel packages — are those going away?
DF: No, they’re not. And that’s going to be great news for our SPG members. The travel packages are one of the richest ways that members can redeem on the Marriott side, so we’re keeping those across the program.
TPG: And the SPG Nights and Flights?
DF: It’ll stay as well and move into these travel packages, we’re going to combine them.
TPG: Are the package prices changing?
DF: It’s a good question because as we combine the two programs, we are trying to align them where we can, so we’ll have that information when we roll out our award chart.
- So obviously Nights and Flights is something people see a lot of value in. Marriott acknowledges it - and they say that they are keeping it intact and combine the SPG nights and flights program into there as well.
- They do acknowledge the prices will have to change - but we all expected that. The thing about this is, the Marriott pricing on this was formulaic. It was easy for anybody to dissect exactly how they came to the pricing AND it will be very easy for us to dissect if this is a negative change. They've done a good job so far avoiding negative publicity on this and I'd imagine they want to continue to do so.
- The point above is huge in this though - and that is, what category do your desired properties end up in? The thing I'm closely tracking is where will they slot Swan and Dolphin and what does a nights and flights look like with that property

I shared this the other day and I'll share again with another idea - IF Marriott keeps the calculation roughly the same here is what the new Nights & Flights could look like at the 120,000 mile redemption level:
IDEA 1: (moves the lowest tier to Cat 1-4 which would look similar to the existing program)
270k = 7nights at Cat 1-4 + 120k miles
330k = 7nights at Cat 5 + 120k miles
420k = 7nights at Cat 6 + 120k miles
480k = 7nights at Cat 7 + 120k miles
630k = 7nights at Cat 8 + 120k miles
This chart would get a 10% kicker on miles w/ United and get cut in half on the miles for Jetblue.
IDEA 2: (keeps the lowest tier at Cat 1-5 which would be slightly negative but probably not affect many people)
330k = 7nights at Cat 1-5 + 120k miles
420k = 7nights at Cat 6 + 120k miles
480k = 7nights at Cat 7 + 120k miles
630k = 7nights at Cat 8 + 120k miles
This chart would get a 10% kicker on miles w/ United and get cut in half on the miles for Jetblue.