Your pending points will post on the card when the PC takes affect. Any pending transactions will earn based on the card product at the time of posting. (accidentally used the card right before I PC'd to a CFU, after posting, those transactions earned the 1.5x) At least they would and I haven't seen anything contrary.
I think what caused the uncertainty previously is how long it would take for points to register as 'earned'. Back in time, your points could take a few days after the last transaction posted to show up as pending. So it was unknown when Chase considered the bonus earned. (And who tracks it that closely? Probably not many. With potential backdating, you'd have to stalk the portal daily to record the date.) Some folks had been approved right after the last transaction date, others would get denied. To play it absolutely safe, you stick to the statement date because that's the last date we'd know for sure they were in your account. If you knew when the last transaction was that triggered it, or better yet when it went pending, it was worth a shot applying earlier.
I've noticed the points go pending much faster now, pretty simultaneously with the transaction that triggered them most times. So I think we can get a little tighter with the timeline now that Chase has stepped up their game. Recent DP that's consistent with previous positive DPs of after transaction, but well before statement closing.
https://www.doctorofcredit.com/rumo...fer-in-branch-starts-3-23-25/#comment-2033839