I know most of you will know this info but...

[yasuern]

When we were at the Contemporary for our last day of vacation at Chef Mickeys - we asked for a map of the resort on the way out a bell person gave it to us and said it will be all different soon - We asked how? Long story short the whole north garden - begining in Jan(Or spring not sure) is being converted to DVC units!

My DD would love to stay soo close to the MK!!



Sue

 

[sjdisneywedding]

When we were at the Contemporary for our last day of vacation at Chef Mickeys - we asked for a map of the resort on the way out a bell person gave it to us and said it will be all different soon - We asked how? Long story short the whole north garden - begining in Jan(Or spring not sure) is being converted to DVC units!

My DD would love to stay soo close to the MK!!



Sue

did they actually say its being converted to DVC or did they say theres going to be construction?

Has anyone else heard if this is official, last I knew it was rumor.

 

[Chuck S]

Don't believe everything the CMs tell ya. Saratoga has LOTS of room to grow yet..and though it is selling well, it will be a LONG time before it sells out. DVC rarely has more than one on-site resort selling at the same time. The existing Contemporary wing would have to be torn down and re-built to fit into the DVC room layouts. It may happen, but I don't see it happening right away since SSR is only in the early stages of an 800 unit development.

 

[DebbieB]

If they would have the Contemporary ready for DVC or even under construction, I think they would have a hard time selling the rest of SSR. I agree with Chuck S, I don't think it will be for awhile.

 

[BCV23]

Perhaps the wings would be converted to all studios or a whole new category of just rooms as in the Inn rooms at VB.

The rooms at the CR are very large and it wouldn't take much to add a minibar, microwave module.

We've never stayed at the CR but the North wing rooms that face Bay Lake look so peaceful.

Speculation is always fun.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Don't believe everything the CMs tell ya. Saratoga has LOTS of room to grow yet..and though it is selling well, it will be a LONG time before it sells out. DVC rarely has more than one on-site resort selling at the same time. The existing Contemporary wing would have to be torn down and re-built to fit into the DVC room layouts. It may happen, but I don't see it happening right away since SSR is only in the early stages of an 800 unit development.

all very true, but with the planning, tearing down, rebuilding, etc wouldnt SSR springs be pretty well along in its development and sales. Even if there were some overlap, CR I assume would sell extremely quickly and I would imagine there wouldnt be alot of it to go around either, then they would just return to only SSR sales

this isnt the first rumor I have heard about dvc planning begining at the end of 04.

also I wonder....would it be easier for sales to sell dvc if they had more options to offer? i mean when they get calls now its basically only SSR

 

[tjkraz]

all very true, but with the planning, tearing down, rebuilding, etc wouldnt SSR springs be pretty well along in its development and sales.

Phase One of SSR was constructed in about 30 months time, including all common area buildings, infrastructure and one guest building (with 3 additional buildings following roughly 10 weeks' time.) With the existing infrastructure in place at a resort like the CR, I assume they could begin opening units in 2 years or less.

But DVC openly admits that SSR will not be complete until sometime in 2007. Sales will likely continue for several years following completion. Doesn't seem to be much logic in unveiling plans for another resort until SSR is within a couple years of selling out.

Even if there were some overlap, CR I assume would sell extremely quickly and I would imagine there wouldnt be alot of it to go around either, then they would just return to only SSR sales.

From the point that a resort like the Contemporary is announced, other resort sales (be it SSR or just about any other property) would immediately go in the toilet. Thousands of potential owners would simply wait for the CR. In the meantime, DVC takes a double financial hit: they lose the immediate revenue SSR sales would have generated, and at the same time they must continue to subsizide the annual dues for all of the unsold points.

And, let's not forget that DVC just announced Phase 3 of SSR six months ago. If they had plans for the Contemporary, why move forward with additional units at SSR now? They could always have revisited SSR in a few years, much as was the case with the OKW expansion in the late-90s.

this isnt the first rumor I have heard about dvc planning begining at the end of 04

The CR rumors have been floating around for at least the 18 months I've been following DVC discussions here, and it always starts with a "reliable source." Perhaps something will really come of it this time, but I'm not gonna hold my breath.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Phase One of SSR was constructed in about 30 months time, including all common area buildings, infrastructure and one guest building (with 3 additional buildings following roughly 10 weeks' time.) With the existing infrastructure in place at a resort like the CR, I assume they could begin opening units in 2 years or less.

But DVC openly admits that SSR will not be complete until sometime in 2007. Sales will likely continue for several years following completion. Doesn't seem to be much logic in unveiling plans for another resort until SSR is within a couple years of selling out.



From the point that a resort like the Contemporary is announced, other resort sales (be it SSR or just about any other property) would immediately go in the toilet. Thousands of potential owners would simply wait for the CR. In the meantime, DVC takes a double financial hit: they lose the immediate revenue SSR sales would have generated, and at the same time they must continue to subsizide the annual dues for all of the unsold points.

And, let's not forget that DVC just announced Phase 3 of SSR six months ago. If they had plans for the Contemporary, why move forward with additional units at SSR now? They could always have revisited SSR in a few years, much as was the case with the OKW expansion in the late-90s.



The CR rumors have been floating around for at least the 18 months I've been following DVC discussions here, and it always starts with a "reliable source." Perhaps something will really come of it this time, but I'm not gonna hold my breath.

Well 2 years from now will be 2007, which is when SSR will be completed and according to your estimates when CR could be completed(if this went forward now). So yes there would be some overlap, but I doubt all other sales would go into the toilet, thats just sorta crazy. Why do you think it will take "several" years for SSR to completely sell out AFTER completion, thats a bit of an exaggeration isnt it? What numbers would that be based on?

Yes CR would be highly anticipated and would sell extremely quickly, it would probably be sold out before it was even completed, but I am sure not everyone will want CR.

 

[Shamus]

If you look at the overlaps from initial anouncement to closeout you will see that ever since BWV was announced it is RARE that DVC does not have more than one on-site choice. Sales may be at a single resort but more often than not there was knowledge of future projects long before closeout.

BWV was in competition with either OKW or VWL during most of its sales time. Not to mention that the two offsite resorts were still being sold also.

Having CR announced will have a neutral if not posative effect on SSR sales IMHO. It will be used as an incentive for potential members to buy SSR knowing they are locking in Today's price and will have the ability to stay at CR in the future.

 

[tjkraz]

Well 2 years from now will be 2007, which is when SSR will be completed and according to your estimates when CR could be completed(if this went forward now).

Last time I checked, it IS still 2004. That means that an estimated 2007 completion could easily be 3+ years down the road. SSR has EIGHT buildings under construction now--all part of Phase 2. Phase 3 is supposed to be constructed on the site of the DI Fairway Villas. As of yesterday, those villas are still standing. Don't underestimate the time it will take to complete construction on the FOURTEEN buildings that are still on the slate.

So yes there would be some overlap, but I doubt all other sales would go into the toilet, thats just sorta crazy.

Oh, really? Ever checked the difference in resale prices between OKW and BCV? Sure, there will be people who will still buy SSR. Some people would still buy SSR just because they like SSR. Others would probably put too much value into the Guides' promises that "you can still stay at any of the other resorts with your SSR points."

However, others would realize that CR points are very likely to command a premium on the resale market, thus making them more valuable in the long run. Some will recognize the value of the 11-month window at a prime location on the monorail line. Still others may just want to know that the CR is their "Home" (I've already read posts to that effect on these boards.)

IMO, SSR sales WILL slow to some unknown degree following the announcement of any construction of villas at the Contemporary.

Why do you think it will take "several" years for SSR to completely sell out AFTER completion, thats a bit of an exaggeration isnt it?

SSR began pre-sales of Phase One points in mid-August '03. By September '04, DVC decided to sell only Phase Two points to new members. However, they did reserve some Phase One points for existing member add-ons. According to the weekly member meeting four days ago, they still have some of those Phase One points in inventory.

So, let's assume that they sold about 3.5 buildings (of the four buildings in Phase One) worth of points in 13 months (August '03 to September '04). Extrapolate that data over the 18 total buildings, and one can assume a MINIMUM of 5 1/2 to 6 years to sell-out the entire resort. That's assuming that sales will remain constant over the entire period, which I don't necessarily believe will be the case. DVC has been forced to offer some pretty attractive discounts and other perks (APs, park tickets, Developer's Points, II weeks, etc.) in conjunction with SSR sales. Much of this appears to be due to the fact that their construction schedule continues to lag behind sales--not a very desirable position to be in. There's nothing worse than trying to get someone to fork over $15K for a product they won't even be able to use for 6-8 months.

Anyway, using this data, it appears that the resort probably will not sell out any sooner than the end of 2008. More likely, I'd say it will be 2009 or 2010 before SSR is completely sold out.

Yes CR would be highly anticipated and would sell extremely quickly, it would probably be sold out before it was even completed, but I am sure not everyone will want CR.

Of course not everyone would want CR. I probably wouldn't buy into the CR myself. But MANY people would. Folks who normally would buy SSR will defer a purchase decision if they know that CR is 12-18 months away.

We are taking a relatively fixed audience for DVC points and giving them two options instead of one. And, if the prevailing opinion here about resorts like BCV and VWL also applies to CR villas, I would expect more than 50% of prospective sales to steer toward CR over SSR.

Sure, DVC could continue to drive sales at SSR through discounts and purchase incentives even after a new resort is announced. But, aside from feeding the cash cow, I just don't see the value in announcing and breaking-ground on a prime DVC property like the CR while SSR is still 3 years from completion and easily another 5 years from selling-out.

IMO, they'd be better off riding the current wave of SSR sales, sans discounts, as far as they can, and look to bring a new property into the fold toward the end of the decade.

YMMV.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Last time I checked, it IS still 2004. That means that an estimated 2007 completion could easily be 3+ years down the road. SSR has EIGHT buildings under construction now--all part of Phase 2. Phase 3 is supposed to be constructed on the site of the DI Fairway Villas. As of yesterday, those villas are still standing. Don't underestimate the time it will take to complete construction on the FOURTEEN buildings that are still on the slate.YMMV.

lol, I think you just might be in the mood to argue tonight, yes its 2004 but come on! 05, is less than 2 weeks away, pretty tough to find anywhere in 2007 thats 3+ years away. thats fine 2-3 years then. Im am not underestimating the time to complete SSR, YOU said 2007 not me!

There are no exact dates, the fact is...back to my original post.. I
merely asked that dont you think with all the planning and construction that would be needed at CR to get a DVC up and running from the point they even anounced it that SSR would be quite far along in its completetion and sales. Your prediction of 2 or so years to have a dvc CR ready for sale puts SSR nearing the end of its construction and sales

Oh, really? Ever checked the difference in resale prices between OKW and BCV? Sure, there will be people who will still buy SSR. Some people would still buy SSR just because they like SSR. Others would probably put too much value into the Guides' promises that "you can still stay at any of the other resorts with your SSR points."

However, others would realize that CR points are very likely to command a premium on the resale market, thus making them more valuable in the long run. Some will recognize the value of the 11-month window at a prime location on the monorail line. Still others may just want to know that the CR is their "Home" (I've already read posts to that effect on these boards.)

yep checked out the differences in resales and as you stated above people still buy SSR for whatever reason. Of course people will realize CR is more valuable and desirable, thats what i said as well, but it doesnt mean sales at all other resorts will go into the toilet. If that were the case then why would SSR be selling at all with resales available out there?

SSR began pre-sales of Phase One points in mid-August '03. By September '04, DVC decided to sell only Phase Two points to new members. However, they did reserve some Phase One points for existing member add-ons. According to the weekly member meeting four days ago, they still have some of those Phase One points in inventory.

So, let's assume that they sold about 3.5 buildings (of the four buildings in Phase One) worth of points in 13 months (August '03 to September '04). Extrapolate that data over the 18 total buildings, and one can assume a MINIMUM of 5 1/2 to 6 years to sell-out the entire resort. That's assuming that sales will remain constant over the entire period, which I don't necessarily believe will be the case. DVC has been forced to offer some pretty attractive discounts and other perks (APs, park tickets, Developer's Points, II weeks, etc.) in conjunction with SSR sales. Much of this appears to be due to the fact that their construction schedule continues to lag behind sales--not a very desirable position to be in. There's nothing worse than trying to get someone to fork over $15K for a product they won't even be able to use for 6-8 months.

Anyway, using this data, it appears that the resort probably will not sell out any sooner than the end of 2008. More likely, I'd say it will be 2009 or 2010 before SSR is completely sold out.

yes 5-6 years to sell out the resort from when sales started over a year ago, not from when the entire resort is completed. 2008, 09, or 2010 is not several years years after completion which you said would be sometime in 2007 at the earliest? If its not several years, I dont think its a problem, sell SRR now, sell both SSR and CR when its ready, and then back to SSR when CR is sold out, which in all likely hood wouldnt be very long after. I mean even if by chance its 2010 by time SSR is sold out, its not like thats a far off time in the future. DVC cant just decide one day ok SSR is sold out so now lets start planning for another dvc resort. it cant work that way, sometimes can take years to plan and develop and build. If they want to continue to grow and prosper they alwys have to have that next plan in place. thats what planning is.

Also since when is sales being ahead of construction not a very desirable thing, its a great thing! Im confused first you say SSR will take several years beyond construction completion to sell out, then you say they are selling it faster than they can build it.

Of course not everyone would want CR. I probably wouldn't buy into the CR myself. But MANY people would. Folks who normally would buy SSR will defer a purchase decision if they know that CR is 12-18 months away.

Again I disagree, folks normally buying SSR would not defer and wait for CR because they either want SSR, do not like CR, or are being told they can stay at CR with a SRR membership. The addition of CR makes sales in overall DVC more attractive. many dont realize youlll probably never get CR at 7 months out during busy periods, but they arent going to realize this until after they are in and pressure will be put on them by sales saying CR will be sold out quickly, it will be tough to buy into, theres already a waitlist, annual dues will be through the roof, etc etc

We are taking a relatively fixed audience for DVC points and giving them two options instead of one. And, if the prevailing opinion here about resorts like BCV and VWL also applies to CR villas, I would expect more than 50% of prospective sales to steer toward CR over SSR.

ok if 50% are going to CR, wheres the other 50% going? This just adds to the idea that 2 dvc resorts for sale are better than one. You are going to pull in many who love CR and would never even consider DVC before, you will attract those who do not like SSR, you are going to entice many of the current dvc owners to buy another contract at CR. You are going to enhance the entire dvc club... people love quantity, the more dvc resorts there are the more people are going to consider dvc, the more options for planning a dvc stay the happier people will be.

Yes without a doubt sales at SSR will drop, but that drop will probably be offset with the sales at CR.

 

[tjkraz]

In your own words, 2 or so years for completion of a CR DVC puts SSR on the fiinishing cyle of its construction and sales.

Construction: yes. Sales: no.

I believe you were the one that anticipated an announcement "at the end of '04." That would put a CR villa opening somewhere in the late-'06 to early-'07 opening range. As stated, I do not agree that this would be wise given that SSR will certainly be selling well into '08, and more likely for years beyond that.

Of course people will realize CR is more valuable and desirable, thats what i said as well, but it doesnt mean sales at all other resorts will go into the toilet. If that were the case then why would SSR be selling at all with resales available out there?

1. People don't know about resales.
2. People cannot afford to finance independently.
3. People don't want the hassle of a resale.
4. People just want to get "into the system" with any resort.
5. Financial incentives offered by DVC.
6. People actually like SSR itself.

Ok i disagree here, but even if this is accurate, how is 2008, 09, or 2010 "several" years after completion when you said yourself SSR wouldnt be completed until sometime in 2007 at the earliest? If its not several years, I dont think its a problem, sell SRR now, sell both SSR and CR when its ready, and then back to SSR when CR is sold out, which in all likely hood wouldnt be very long after.

Why invest millions of dollars now in construction and marketing at two separate sites when the costs can be deferred for several years?

Why would DVC announce Phase Three of SSR if the CR could have been opened in a similar timeframe? If the CR is as close to its start as you seem to think, why not build there now and add-on to SSR later?

Why would DVC willingly absorb the maintenance and upkeep of rooms at two resorts as they attempt to sll the completed units?

Also since when is sales being ahead of construction not a very desirable thing, its a great thing!

Several reasons:

1. DVC has to offer better-than-normal discounts in order to pre-sell something that doesn't exist. Right now they are offering Developer's Points (which come out of DVC's own inventory) or $10 off per point at SSR for units that have not opened yet. The $10 off is similar to Magical Beginnings, but it costs DVC more in the end because there are no dues paid on the points. Under the typical MB scenario, the member still pays the dues on the points making the discount about $6 per point instead of $10.

2. The salespeople are trying to sell something that doesn't even exist. Ever give a dealership a $2000 down payment for a car that you won't receive for 6 months?

There used to be a time when a family could arrive at WDW for an extended vacation, discover and agree to buy DVC during that trip, and immediately move to a DVC resort to finish their stay on points. That cannot happen when people are being asked to buy into units that don't open for 4-6 months.

Why exactly do you think it's such a "great thing" to try and sell units that do not yet exist?

Im confused first you say SSR will take several years beyond construction completion to sell out, then you say they are selling it faster than they can build it.

I never said they are selling faster than they can build. DVC has been behind on construction for almost 2 years now. BCV sold out in the Fall of '03. They then went 8-10 months selling points in SSR units that did not open until May '04. Shortly after Phase One opened, they were left with only Phase Two points to sell due to Phase One pre-sales.

With 8 buildings set to open in 2005-2006, and another 6 in 2007, the construction schedule will finally pass sales in another +/- 6 months.

Again I disagree, folks normally buying SSR would not defer and wait for CR because they either want SSR, do not like CR, or are being told they can stay at CR with a SRR membership. The addition of CR makes sales in overall DVC more attractive. many dont realize youlll proabably never get CR at 7 months out during busy periods, but they arent going to realize this until after they are in and pressure will be put on them by sales saying CR will be sold out quickly, it will be tough to buy into, theres already a waitlist, annual dues will be through the roof, etc etc

I never said that CR wouldn't make DVC more attractive. I'm simply questioning your "by the end of 2004" timeline. As stated, repeatedly, I don't see the value in moving forward NOW with project that is a guaranteed success, rather than waiting another 2-3 years when SSR sales will be more mature.

ok if 50% are going to CR, wheres the other 50% going? This just adds to the idea that 2 dvc resorts for sale are better than one.

Ever heard of Vero Beach? Ten years to sell out 150 units. While I love SSR, if I were running DVC I certainly wouldn't take the risk that SSR would become the ugly stepsister for whatever time period it takes to sell another resort.

You are going to pull in many who love CR and would never even consider DVC before, you will attract those who do not like SSR, you are going to entice many of the current dvc owners to buy another contract at CR. You are going to enhance the entire dvc club... people love quantity, the more dvc resorts there are the more people are going to consider dvc, the more options for planning a dvc stay the happier people will be.

Yes without a doubt sales at SSR will drop, but that drop will probably be offset with the sales at CR.

I never said otherwise. But why do it NOW? All of these factors will still apply in another 2-3 years.

 

[lehrsj]

Well if was the developer and I wanted to start CR now, but I didn't want it to effect SSR sales I think I'd say that for preconstruction, and maybe for a certain time period after construction was finished that only existing DVC members could purchase CR as add-ons.

I'd get all current owners who want CR to buy now. I'd get any potential new owners who want CR and are afraid it will sell out to buy at SSR first and then add-on at CR.

 

[FLYNZ4]

Tjkraz,

I am not convinced that DVC will take as long to sell out as you are projecting. As you point out, some of the new buildings are currently pre-sold and new SSR owners have to wait to use their points.

I would not be surprised to see SSR sell out by late '07 or early '08. The next project will need to be starting soon if this is correct. I do agree that they do not necessarily need to announce a new resort in '04... and I guess it is a fairly safe bet that it will not happen this year

/Jim

 

[sjdisneywedding]

Construction: yes. Sales: no.

I believe you were the one that anticipated an announcement "at the end of '04." That would put a CR villa opening somewhere in the late-'06 to early-'07 opening range. As stated, I do not agree that this would be wise given that SSR will certainly be selling well into '08, and more likely for years beyond that.

Nope, wasnt me who anticipated end of 04, i merely asked whether anyone has heard anything more on this end of 04 rumor

Why invest millions of dollars now in construction and marketing at two separate sites when the costs can be deferred for several years?

Why would DVC announce Phase Three of SSR if the CR could have been opened in a similar timeframe? If the CR is as close to its start as you seem to think, why not build there now and add-on to SSR later?

I never said its close to being started, I am saying IF the rumors are true. As i said it takes years to plan, develop and build. Years! they wouldnt be investing millions in construction and marketing for many years. Something they would have to do whenever they build CR, if they do.

They announced phase Three proably because as I said it takes years to plan, develop, and build. Why would they hold off on a current project ready to roll, to start to plan for a completely different project

1. DVC has to offer better-than-normal discounts in order to pre-sell something that doesn't exist. Right now they are offering Developer's Points (which come out of DVC's own inventory) or $10 off per point at SSR for units that have not opened yet. The $10 off is similar to Magical Beginnings, but it costs DVC more in the end because there are no dues paid on the points. Under the typical MB scenario, the member still pays the dues on the points making the discount about $6 per point instead of $10.

2. The salespeople are trying to sell something that doesn't even exist. Ever give a dealership a $2000 down payment for a car that you won't receive for 6 months?

There used to be a time when a family could arrive at WDW for an extended vacation, discover and agree to buy DVC during that trip, and immediately move to a DVC resort to finish their stay on points. That cannot happen when people are being asked to buy into units that don't open for 4-6 months.

Why exactly do you think it's such a "great thing" to try and sell units that do not yet exist?

thats half the point, its more difficult to sell for the units that dont even exist and they are still selling! I am also sure that the discounts are all part of the intial equation when planning to build a new dvc resort. Obviously there is a time between construction and ready to use units whether its SSR, future CR, or any other new time share. Its an issue that cant be avoided. So to use that as an excuse to not build a new resort is not very valid.

I never said that CR wouldn't make DVC more attractive. I'm simply questioning your "by the end of 2004" timeline. As stated, repeatedly, I don't see the value in moving forward NOW with project that is a guaranteed success, rather than waiting another 2-3 years when SSR sales will be more mature.

as I said I didnt develop the "end of 2004 timeline" its not my timeline, I am simply evaluating the situation if the rumor were to be true. and since we both agree CR is a good idea, I guess thats that

Ever heard of Vero Beach? Ten years to sell out 150 units. While I love SSR, if I were running DVC I certainly wouldn't take the risk that SSR would become the ugly stepsister for whatever time period it takes to sell another resort.

Vero Beach and SSr can not be compared in the same sentence. 2 completely diferent situations

 

[timC]

About a month ago I talked to a CM, who was stationed at the DTD DVC booth... I asked about the CR rumor... She said it was nothing more than that...a rumor.

I can understand why they'd want to be further along with SSR before opening up another project. They're building a whole lot of inventory...Too much supply would force them to deepen their discounting (more than they're doing today).

I have not doubt, there's a "villas at CR" in the master plan. It's a matter of timing. This is just not the right time. However, I will say that I think it's a perfect project to follow SSR. It would sell very well, breath new life into their icon CR resort, and yet would not upset the supply/demand balance of room inventory at WDW. Like SSR, a VCR would be replacing existing capacity.

 

[3DisneyNUTS]

Well 2 years from now will be 2007, which is when SSR will be completed and according to your estimates when CR could be completed(if this went forward now). So yes there would be some overlap, but I doubt all other sales would go into the toilet, thats just sorta crazy. Why do you think it will take "several" years for SSR to completely sell out AFTER completion, thats a bit of an exaggeration isnt it? What numbers would that be based on?

Yes CR would be highly anticipated and would sell extremely quickly, it would probably be sold out before it was even completed, but I am sure not everyone will want CR.

I agree and we are not planning on adding on now but I definitely would if CR was offered. So factor in all those people that would not normally add on right now if it were not for the Contemporary being offered. I bet if they offered to just members first it would still be brisk sales! Well we can only dream. I would love points at the contemporary!

 

[DVCPAT]

I agree and we are not planning on adding on now but I definitely would if CR was offered. So factor in all those people that would not normally add on right now if it were not for the Contemporary being offered. I bet if they offered to just members first it would still be brisk sales! Well we can only dream. I would love points at the contemporary!

I with you! I don’t agree with the logic, don’t build it because they will stampede us.

 

[mowog]

I might be wrong but I would think CR would appeal more to familys with small children- who are maybe less likely to have the extra money to buy DVC. We started out at CR when our kids were little and spent most time at MK (also it was the only park open!). As everyone got older we moved to Beach/Yacht Club area as we liked Epcot/MGM a little better than MK. I agree CR location would be a premium location like BWV and BCV commanding a premium over OKW and SSR. I could see doing an add on for CR with future grand children in mind- dismissing my opening sentince entirely. We have points at BCV that we bought resale after our "guide" told us we could only buy SSR- so there are many that probably want location and I guess the CR would be one that would appeal to a lot of people.

 

[tjkraz]

Nope, wasnt me who anticipate end o 04, i merely asked whether anyone has heard anything more on this end of 04 rumor

Your exact words were: "this isnt the first rumor I have heard about dvc planning begining at the end of 04."

This statement was then followed by my observation that the CR rumors are years old. None of us is privy to any of the planning that goes on behind the scenes. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that they already have cost estimates and proposed layouts for CR villas. Whether it goes further than that remains to be seen.

They announced phase Three proably because as I said it takes years to plan, develop, and build. Why would they hold off on a current project ready to roll, to start to plan for a completely different project

In the 6 months since the Phase 3 announcement DVC has yet to publish any updated resort maps showing the new building construction. By all indications, this was something of a hastily-made decision to continue forward with SSR construction.

If they were so hot to build at the CR, it certainly could have taken precedence.

thats half the point, its more difficult to sell for the units that dont even exist and they are still selling!

Yes, but at what rate? Is there really any question that sales could have been BETTER, not to mention more profitable for DVC without the incentives, if the had units ready for occupancy all along?

I am also sure that the discounts are all part of the intial equation when planning to build a new dvc resort. Obviously there is a time between construction and ready to use units whether its SSR, future CR, or any other new time share. Its an issue that cant be avoided. So to use that as an excuse to not build a new resort is not very valid.

Yes, it ABSOLUTELY can be avoided. The reason discounts were practically unavioidable this time is because DVC has NOTHING else to sell. If BCV points were still available in February or March '04, then yes, they would have sold both resorts at once. But we certainly wouldn't have seen the deep discounting the DVC was forced into because they had NO CURRENT POINTS to sell from September '03 to May '04.

Which brings us back to CR. As stated, I absolutely agree that the next property (be it CR or some other) WILL be announced and constructed in a timeframe that will enable them to have little or no "down time" in which they have no current inventory of points to sell.

But that doesn't mean that the next resort will be announced today, tomorrow, next week or even next year. We can spend all day debating the sell-out date of SSR. Personally, I don't see it happening before 2008. If true, then I happen to believe it would be in DVC's best interest to wait until they are 2 to 2 1/2 years away from that projected sell-out date to begin construction on the next resort.

I'll be shocked to hear of a new resort anytime in the next year. My own guess would be an annoucement by mid-2006 (maybe very late '05) with opening in 2008/2009. If that estimate proves to be incorrect, so be it. Won't be the first time.

Vero Beach and SSr can not be compared in the same sentence. 2 completely diferent situations

Yes and no. Under any scenario where SSR and CR are offered concurrently, SSR would be playing the role of the inferior resort to CR much as VB did for a decade. To the average WDW guest / potential DVC owner, I believe that the vast majority would select CR villas over SSR if given the choice of either. That's assuming the same 2054 ending contracts. The only difference between the two is likely to be dues. Lower dues at SSR may push some people in that direction, as would a genuine desire to stay at SSR. But, IMO, the vast majority of consumers would still choose CR over SSR, leaving DVC to sit on an inventory of SSR points if both are constructed simultaneously.

CR would be an excellent resort for both new and existing members. But to wrecklessly announce, construct and sell points at CR before SSR has reached a level of maturity would be a mistake. To sell points at CR and then "get back to SSR" would be a mistake.

If it happens, a DVC addition to the Contemporary would be a success in 2005, 2010 or any other time down the road. There is no pressing need to advance such a project prematurely.