I'm someone who tends to stay onsite every year for the holidays (which is met with many perplexed looks from people, as I live about 45 minutes away from DLR and they don't understand why I'd want to stay in a hotel), so I am always keeping my eyes peeled for those coveted discounts too. I understand the wishful thinking,
tinker-girl!
I agree with
KateDrake - I think that Disney is not in a place at the moment where they have to release good discounts because they have been experiencing no shortage of onsite guests. This year, in particular, has probably attracted a lot more folks to stay onsite - even though the hotel rates have gone up (and because of this, the few discounts that have been offered have seemed less substantial).
I know that in the case of some previous holiday seasons, the 3 DLR hotels would have occupancy up until the week right before Christmas. Even just last year, my friends from out of state made reservations for their early December
Disneyland Hotel stay not too long before the trip was going to take place, whereas I would have made my reservations at least a couple of months in advance. They were able to get a room on relatively short notice because there was availability.
The special rates for Annual Pass holders have changed too. While we can still get 10% off of the hotel rates 365 days a year, the "good rates" that used to pop up on the AP hotel calendar (the rates that were in the range of 35% off) three months in advance have gotten few and far between, or they show up at the last minute. If they pop up at all, they may only cover a few days in a month and you have to snap them up before they book up. Gone are the glory days of AP rates in the range of $129 - $179 per night for the Paradise Pier Hotel!
Then there are also the occasional PIN codes which are sent out to random people. Even those PIN code rates are not as good as they used to be, and often times they cover weeks in which the recipients cannot go.
Disney will be more apt to send out PIN codes and discounted rates for weeks/time frames they expect to be less busy. This year, the Candlelight Processional being held on the first 20 days of December is a question mark and no one can be sure how it will impact crowds or hotel availability.
Last year I was very fortunate to have one totally free night at the PPH (no tax or anything), and $99 for each additional night. Free parking, too, and VIP seating/viewing for any show I chose. This was not a Disney-publicized offer; it was something offered by Special Activities to make up for a mistake the PPH had made on my bill in 2010.
When I booked my PPH room last year, I wanted to stay for a full week, as I knew that I would never again get rates like that for any onsite property - especially in December. I felt this urgency to try to stay as many days as I could, to take full advantage of that fabulous offer. As it turned out, I was not able to stay at the PPH the full week, and the whole trip ended up kind of going downhill. After it was over, one of the things I felt saddest about was the fact that things had gone awry when I finally had the chance to stay onsite for more days, at an amazing rate!!

I wished that I could redo that trip and get another shot at really having the kind of trip I wanted to have!