Right on here - when you are King (WDW is the Leafs in your analogy) you dont need to toss discounts out there randomly because you already have brand loyalty. When you're not (Jays, Bills are WDL or Disney Paris), you offer more incentives for the regular supporters to keep them and build loyalty.
Someone will then say to the above that WDW/Leafs are vulnerable to losing their customers to the competition who might come in and offer a better deal. Sure, but if they are business wise and have their eye on the ball, they will spot any slips in support and make adjustments to correct those. This is the point when you might see WDW offer more discounts - to AP holders or to the general public. Being the king (WDW/Leafs) also means that you have built up a ton of brand recognition and brand loyalty, so you are far less likely to lose that loyalty just because a newer competitor is giving you a 10% food discount, so why compete with that?
The issue in this thread is that AP holders are feeling "undervalued" by WDW. I am sure if WDW saw the number of AP drop significantly AND they felt that this was an important segment of their business that they would then offer more incentives to AP holders. They arent just going to do it to make everyone feel better though.
I think that Disney should institute a loyalty program not because they need to but because it would benefit them.
What I mean is that I don't feel that Disney really looses much by not offering a loyalty program. Most AP holders are pretty loyal and I don't think the number of them leaving is very large. I also don't think that they are concerned about loosing them long term. Yes, they might cut out a visit here or there to go to another destination but they will be back.
That being said, they do have something to gain by offering something. Many times loyalty programs offer much more perceived then actual value. Lets say the offer is that for every 10 resort stays of 3 nights or more you get a 50% discount on you next stay of up to 5 nights. This isn't the way I would work it but for the sake of this not being an encyclopedia lets use it as a simple example.
Taken on face value this looks like Disney looses 50% of their resort revenue on your 11th stay, but that is too simplistic. First, I feel that people would accelerate their trip frequency because of the carrot that is there after their 10th stay. This means that they might come down one more time this year for example. It also has a built in guarantee of 3 night stays. If I was going to come down for 2 nights I now have an incentive to stay a 3rd.
It is much more complicated then this of course but the best analogy is to look at a buy one get one 50% off sale. Many people look at it as 50% of the revenue on the second item being lost and for those few people that intended to buy 2 of them it is. The majority of people though only intended on buying one so it is actually 50% revenue gained.
You are correct OP, Disney doesn't
have to do any loyalty program because I don't think the down side of not offering one is great. The opportunity cost of not offering one though I do feel is significant enough to make it worth their while to do it, not to maintain revenue but to increase it.
Hopefully that makes sense, I'm not really sure how to put it into writing in anything less then a multi page economic analysis and even I would be put to sleep by it. Too often Disney (and to be fair many corporations) don't look beyond the face of these kinds of things.