I am starting to question the Crowd prediction sites

[Kristine316]

I have noticed a pattern of being "off" on crowd predictions on certain sites. I don't know if it has always been this unpredictable and I am just paying attention now, or if something is really amiss.

A certain crowd prediction site has a "how did we do" thing at the top of their calendar for the day before.. it is a good tool to see how accurate the predictions are after the fact. Yesterday was not a good day for the crowd predictors... the crowds were in fact much less than predicted but, MK was predicted to be a 5.. it was actually a 2.
One thing that I noticed was that the one park that was Most Recommended on a site so many here seem to adore and I do as well, ended up actually being the most crowded park on that day at WDW.

I have noticed over a period of time that one site has been frequently underestimating crowds at least according to their own data. Nothing overly alarming but, those small differences can be a big deal when a guest is carefully planning a vacation.

Now, I have used these sites in the past and have sworn by them. I will keep using them in the future but, I am becoming a little more hesitant about how much I trust in them. There is one site I recommend to everyone I know who goes on a WDW vacation and I will continue to do so but, like I said I am just a little disheartened and unsure about it now.

I know these sites are doing the best they can with the information they have... I am not writing this to attack any site or be extra critical. So much of their information is invaluable.

We haven't been to WDW in 18 months and won't be going back till September so, I am curious if any guests who have actually gone recently have noticed crowds that didn't really match the predictions.. one way or the other.

If the crowd predictions are really that off, what do posters believe is driving the unpredictability? In the past I have felt the predictions were very reliable for the most part.. no prediction can be 100% accurate, obviously, they can't know the future for certain.

I am very interested in posters ideas and opinions on this.

One thought I had and I know will probably get shot down but, is it possible these Crowd Predictions websites are actually driving crowds to a park that is recommended? I know people say the amount of WDW guests who actually use these sites is low in comparison to overall WDW crowds but, everyone I know who takes a WDW vacation uses at least one or all of these sites.. and it seems most people on this forum do as well. It may not be dramatically increasing crowds but, it could explain why a park that was most recommended ended up being the busiest park of the day at WDW... and a park that was least recommended was quite a bit less busy than predicted.

Yes, yesterday could have been just a fluke, maybe it was the weather or some other thing like that, but this hasn't been the first time this has happened..so it does make me wonder.

I usually look over the crowd calendar in a year and try to pick a week that is very low crowds.. and this year I am literally picking the week with the lowest predicted crowds.. all 1's pretty much, there wasn't another period all year with that low of predictions. I just wonder if these sites telling everyone to go this week if they want the lowest crowds will actually make crowds that week higher than they normally would be as so many are taking their advice?

Just thoughts. I know many are not overly hung up on crowd levels and I am not implying going to a park predicted to be for example a 3 and it being a 6 is a huge deal and will ruin a vacation but, for my family lower crowds is a big plus and I spend a ton of time planning to try to avoid the larger crowds as much as possible.

 

[mesaboy2]

1. It's tough to predict the future.

2. "Crowded" means different things to different people.

Once you accept those two facts, crowd calendars can be anything from handy references to completely useless.

 

[italian alps]

I'm starting to wonder if there is such a thing as "low" crowds anymore. I too watch the calendar for comparison and am perplexed. We are taking the kids out of school to enjoy our disney experience first week of December 2014. You mentioned a site you trust but weren't specific of the name. Care to share?

 

[siskaren]

I'm starting to wonder if there is such a thing as "low" crowds anymore. I too watch the calendar for comparison and am perplexed. We are taking the kids out of school to enjoy our disney experience first week of December 2014. You mentioned a site you trust but weren't specific of the name. Care to share?

A lot of people (including me) like easywdw.com.

 

[ethanwa]

I have felt they have been wrong for well over a year or two now. I don't even look at them anymore.

WDW is a LOT more crowded now that the economy has recovered quite a bit. Back in fall 2008 it was EMPTY.

 

[jtowntoflorida]

1. It's tough to predict the future.

2. "Crowded" means different things to different people.

Once you accept those two facts, crowd calendars can be anything from handy references to completely useless.

ITA.

Additionally, I think complaining about free advice that you get from one of those sites (which is also ad-free, so presumably no revenue is coming in from it) is a little bizarre, but that's just me.

 

[db57me]

A lot of people (including me) like easywdw.com.

I've reviewed the charts on easyWDW for our week in June. I'd like to know how reliable are their predictions, knowing you can't predict the future.

 

[MrInfinity]

One thought I had and I know will probably get shot down but, is it possible these Crowd Predictions websites are actually driving crowds to a park that is recommended?

A) I don't think the crowd prediction sites significantly affect the masses of crowds at the parks.

B) Sometimes two sites will recommend the exact opposite things. Obviously one is wrong and the other is right, or maybe even both are wrong. Point is overall they are simply not reliable.

C) They still offer good insight and some perspectives ppl might not have thought about, so they're a nice resource to enjoy -- but not follow blindly.

Think of it this way. The most common recommendation is "avoid EMH days if you're not going to use the EMH hours". Sounds reasonable, right? Not necessarily! What about the off-siters. There are as many off-site hotels as there are on-site, so many guests will follow this simply by common sense. They won't go to a park when the resort guests will already be there and it will be busy at rope drop. Thus, you could say going on the non-EMH days is actually worse! It's a catch-22.

 

[TrudyNH]

Last year we ran into the problem over 10 days of the crowd predictions being way off. Every park we planned to visit was rated a 3-4, yet the crowds were 8-9 with lines of over 2 hours. Our last day, we had 6 hours to kill so we headed to Epcot to do Soarin' and Test Track. The wait for TT was over 3 hours! Even the FP line was backed up at least an hour. Even the staff at the parks have no idea what to expect. I tried to buy an Express Pass for Universal but the girls at the gate said don't bother. Maximum 15 minute wait. WRONG! It was 60-90 minutes.

I've come to realize something though. All these sites direct you to parks that do not have extra magic hours, special performances or parades. If we all follow the guidelines they set, won't that make the slow parks busy??

 

[siskaren]

I've come to realize something though. All these sites direct you to parks that do not have extra magic hours, special performances or parades. If we all follow the guidelines they set, won't that make the slow parks busy??

But not everyone who goes to WDW reads sites like easywdw.

 

[Ametista]

ccggggg

 

[PJ]

This was our 2nd retired Winter 20 minutes from WDW and we we've been going at least 3 times a week.

I relied on easywdw to determine if we would go to a park at all, and if so, which park.

DH doesn't like crowds and his back hurts if he stands for more than 30 minutes. (and no advance AP's - we're AP holders). So we only went on days where overall crowd estimates were 4 or less, and went to the park that he listed as "most recommended". (we did a few 5's, but mostly max of 4).

His estimates seemed accurate enough for me - I plan to follow them again next Winter

 

[msdroz]

following

 

[Micca]

Someone here once commented "choose your weather forecaster." I think that's a pretty good comment. Just as weather patterns are predictable, and historic data is important, anything can happen at any time. The forecaster can only be held accountable to a relative degree of accuracy.

There is only so much one can do to in choosing the best parks/best days. You go to WDW when you can, and if you can get your crew out of bed and at the turnstiles early, you'll do better.

The other variables are a reasoned guess...at best. Many of the crowd predictors are free, and worth every penny

 

[xie]

I have felt they have been wrong for well over a year or two now. I don't even look at them anymore.

WDW is a LOT more crowded now that the economy has recovered quite a bit. Back in fall 2008 it was EMPTY.

^This. Much more crowded.

Also, Disney's changes to the ride lines have impacted how crowded the parks feel. There are a lot more people loitering around the walkways who used to be in standby lines, out of the way.

 

[surferdave]

This sentiment was expressed late last year. I get the main predictors mixed up, but after a particularly off day for the predictions the guy who runs one of them (and has quite a loyal and defensive following) posted here to explain that the parks weren't really crowded, they just felt crowded. That really made me question the value of the predictors. It's like having an accurate prediction of the temperature being 60 degrees, without knowing that the wind chill factor is 30 degrees, or the heat index is 100 degrees.

 

[Mrs. Ciz]

Someone here once commented "choose your weather forecaster." I think that's a pretty good comment. Just as weather patterns are predictable, and historic data is important, anything can happen at any time. The forecaster can only be held accountable to a relative degree of accuracy.

There is only so much one can do to in choosing the best parks/best days. You go to WDW when you can, and if you can get your crew out of bed and at the turnstiles early, you'll do better.

The other variables are a reasoned guess...at best. Many of the crowd predictors are free, and worth every penny

I have to agree with the weather comment. We used one of the crowd calendars when we visited DLR last July 4th week. Granted the site has only been doing crowd estimates for DLR recently. They have much more experience with WDW crowd estimates. In any event, we went to California Adventure on 4th of July. The crowds were supposed to be over a 9 all week with DCA a little lighter than DL on the 4th. We found the whole park very manageable and not very crowded at all. Turns out it was day 3 of a very unusual Southern California heat wave. None of the locals wanted to be outside. We are from Virginia so a dry heat was nothing compared to our sweltering summer humidity. No crowd calendar can predict a heat wave!

I still like the crowd calendar I use and will gladly pay the subscription fee while I'm planning a trip. It gives me some faith that they DO compare their estimates to the actual data and they are constantly tweaking, trying to get better at predicting.

 

[AJPPGH]

I thought the parks were much more crowded than what I anticipated during my Feb 21-26 trip. It was as crowded on Tuesday morning in MK as Friday night. Also I noticed it got crowded much faster than I can ever remember. On the days we did rope drop there wasn't much time until it felt crowded and the ride times escalated. On past vacations it seemed like we had the park to ourselves that early.

 

[dvczerfs]

1. It's tough to predict the future.

2. "Crowded" means different things to different people.

Once you accept those two facts, crowd calendars can be anything from handy references to completely useless.

 

[DebbieB]

I have noticed a pattern of being "off" on crowd predictions on certain sites. I don't know if it has always been this unpredictable and I am just paying attention now, or if something is really amiss.

A certain crowd prediction site has a "how did we do" thing at the top of their calendar for the day before.. it is a good tool to see how accurate the predictions are after the fact. Yesterday was not a good day for the crowd predictors... the crowds were in fact much less than predicted but, MK was predicted to be a 5.. it was actually a 2.
One thing that I noticed was that the one park that was Most Recommended on a site so many here seem to adore and I do as well, ended up actually being the most crowded park on that day at WDW.

I have noticed over a period of time that one site has been frequently underestimating crowds at least according to their own data. Nothing overly alarming but, those small differences can be a big deal when a guest is carefully planning a vacation.

Now, I have used these sites in the past and have sworn by them. I will keep using them in the future but, I am becoming a little more hesitant about how much I trust in them. There is one site I recommend to everyone I know who goes on a WDW vacation and I will continue to do so but, like I said I am just a little disheartened and unsure about it now.

I know these sites are doing the best they can with the information they have... I am not writing this to attack any site or be extra critical. So much of their information is invaluable.

We haven't been to WDW in 18 months and won't be going back till September so, I am curious if any guests who have actually gone recently have noticed crowds that didn't really match the predictions.. one way or the other.

If the crowd predictions are really that off, what do posters believe is driving the unpredictability? In the past I have felt the predictions were very reliable for the most part.. no prediction can be 100% accurate, obviously, they can't know the future for certain.

I am very interested in posters ideas and opinions on this.

One thought I had and I know will probably get shot down but, is it possible these Crowd Predictions websites are actually driving crowds to a park that is recommended? I know people say the amount of WDW guests who actually use these sites is low in comparison to overall WDW crowds but, everyone I know who takes a WDW vacation uses at least one or all of these sites.. and it seems most people on this forum do as well. It may not be dramatically increasing crowds but, it could explain why a park that was most recommended ended up being the busiest park of the day at WDW... and a park that was least recommended was quite a bit less busy than predicted.

Yes, yesterday could have been just a fluke, maybe it was the weather or some other thing like that, but this hasn't been the first time this has happened..so it does make me wonder.

I usually look over the crowd calendar in a year and try to pick a week that is very low crowds.. and this year I am literally picking the week with the lowest predicted crowds.. all 1's pretty much, there wasn't another period all year with that low of predictions. I just wonder if these sites telling everyone to go this week if they want the lowest crowds will actually make crowds that week higher than they normally would be as so many are taking their advice?

Just thoughts. I know many are not overly hung up on crowd levels and I am not implying going to a park predicted to be for example a 3 and it being a 6 is a huge deal and will ruin a vacation but, for my family lower crowds is a big plus and I spend a ton of time planning to try to avoid the larger crowds as much as possible.

Since Disney doesn't release daily attendance, it's hard to judge how far off it is. What feels like a 5 to one person may feel like a 9 to someone else.