Hurricanes and DCL

[FigmentSpark]

Regarding Irma,

I noticed that Carnival has changed the itinerary of 4 cruiseships that were departing Sept 2 and 3 but no word yet regarding the cruises of next week-end.

Royal Caribbean has just cancelled 2 Bahamas cruises (Enchantment from Miami & Majesty from Port Canaveral) that were going to depart Sept. 8, 2017 (friday).

Five other cruises departing next week-end are still "in limbo".Copy-paste from FB:

Allure of the Seas: September 10 Western Caribbean cruise
Anthem of the Seas: September 9 Bermuda cruise
Empress of the Seas: September 9 Cuba cruise
Harmony of the Seas: September 9 Eastern Caribbean cruise
Oasis of the Seas: September 10 Eastern Caribbean cruise

I think that might give you a good idea about the odds regarding DCL...

Good points. Last year, DCL didn't announce any changes until the day before the cruise, if I'm not mistaken. They made a Bahamas cruise into a Canada cruise and gave options for people to cancel. The other Dream cruise wasn't cancelled until they knew it wouldn't be able to be in port on time. People were annoyed that DCL left the announcements for so long.

 

[mevelandry]

Good points. Last year, DCL didn't announce any changes until the day before the cruise, if I'm not mistaken. They made a Bahamas cruise into a Canada cruise and gave options for people to cancel. The other Dream cruise wasn't cancelled until they knew it wouldn't be able to be in port on time. People were annoyed that DCL left the announcements for so long.

EDIT: I decided to add NCL as well.

 

[Disneylovebirds]

Hey guys,

Thank you all for the responses. I appreciate the advice.

We have decided to wait it out in terms of cancelling with Disney but are planning on not going and will take the $$ loss if it comes down to it. Evacuations have begun and roads heading north will be clogged over the next few days, so I'm not sure we'd make it there anyway if we drove up Friday morning.

 

[Spize]

Regarding Irma,

I noticed that Carnival has changed the itinerary of 4 cruiseships that were departing Sept 2 and 3 but no word yet regarding the cruises of next week-end.

Royal Caribbean has just cancelled 2 Bahamas cruises (Enchantment from Miami & Majesty from Port Canaveral) that were going to depart Sept. 8, 2017 (friday).

Five other cruises departing next week-end are still "in limbo".Copy-paste from FB:

Allure of the Seas: September 10 Western Caribbean cruise
Anthem of the Seas: September 9 Bermuda cruise
Empress of the Seas: September 9 Cuba cruise
Harmony of the Seas: September 9 Eastern Caribbean cruise
Oasis of the Seas: September 10 Eastern Caribbean cruise

Norwegian Cruise Line: Nothing so far. Update at 2:00 PM today.

I think that might give you a good idea about the odds regarding DCL...

The Majesty had nowhere to go. Nassau is too close to the storm to risk basing the whole cruise on and RC has too many ships using Coco Cay to have the ease of moving that port like DCL does. Not to mention, Coco Cay uses tender boats which are far more effected by rougher seas.

The enchantment is a no brainer. That port is expected to take a direct hit.

The Dream can dock at Castaway Cay on Saturday and be fine, there are no other ships planning to be there as the Fantasy is at PC, then go bob around in the water near PC Sunday watching the storm track and safely tuck away in harbor if it gets too rough. Plus Disney has the benefit with Castaway Cay if they need to get out early, say 1:00, they can. In Nassau too many private excursions to locate everyone, CC you just round them up and apologize. Unless Irma makes a drastic unexpected turn South, Nassau is probably a low percentage shot.

 

[Jeff Saleh]

EDIT: I decided to add NCL as well.

Anyone have any updates on the 9/11-9/15 cruise to Nassau and castaway cay? So far it looks like we are still a go.

 

[mrswillson]

I just read on the 09/09 cruise FB page that an update was issued and Princess and Carnival have cancelled their sailings this coming weekend. Granted the ones that have been cancelled are 3 and 4 day sailings, however has anyone had any experience or knowledge if Disney will follow suit?

 

[Spize]

I just read on the 09/09 cruise FB page that an update was issued and Princess and Carnival have cancelled their sailings this coming weekend. Granted the ones that have been cancelled are 3 and 4 day sailings, however has anyone had any experience or knowledge if Disney will follow suit?

The only port Canaveral cruise I recall Disney cancelling was a 3 day on the Dream, and that took them closing PC and having a 4 day become a 5 day and Disney just wasn't going to try to turnaround a 2 day, not a chance.

7 day cruises are far less likely to be cancelled, you can reduce a day and be fine, you can change ports and go to nearly any part of the Caribbean... a 3 day is pretty much limited to Bahamas.

Also, I haven't looked, but are those cancels out of PC or Miami?

 

[Spize]

Cruises out of Miami this weekend are doomed, especially Bahamian cruises. If Irma stays on path it will hit Miami dead on, if it shifts north before Florida it nails the Bahamas.

 

[Jeff Saleh]

Cruises out of Miami this weekend are doomed, especially Bahamian cruises. If Irma stays on path it will hit Miami dead on, if it shifts north before Florida it nails the Bahamas.

We have a 4 day out of PC and I'm wondering what they will do. Clearly it's still early but just trying to get an idea.

 

[Spize]

Just took a peek at latest Irma update... 9/08 cruise should be able to get in and out of port that day, but the question becomes "will Disney do a cruise to nowhere?"

There is a fine for it, but DCL has higher margins on their cruises than others... the advantage of being Disney.

The other question becomes, is there a path for a 3 day cruise to nowhere around Irma?

 

[Spize]

We have a 4 day out of PC and I'm wondering what they will do. Clearly it's still early but just trying to get an idea.

Again, I'm no cruise captain, just an MBA that knows how managers think.

All depends on where and when Irma goes. If Irma stays south and hooks into the gulf or west of Florida, should be fine. If it hooks up the East coast, you're close to screwed, or at a minimum a day later a 3 day cruise.

Honestly, the last thing they want to do is cancel. Until it becomes more harm than good or flat out impossible.

Just judging by their history, if Port Canaveral is open, they can safely get out, and your cruise can be longer than 2 days, you're probably cruising.

 

[Spize]

Btw, it's also a PR deal too. If the mouse decides they will take a PR hit they will bail.

That's probably only a scenario for Canaveral or surrounding areas being devastated. Disney wouldn't want to look bad bringing in cars and tourists to a humanitarian crisis.

The flip side to remember is.... while you feel bad for the locals, a lot of them make their living based on those ships and tourists coming in and out. Hurricane damage is terrible enough, is losing their income for PR purposes a double whammy?

This is why Eastern Caribbean is still a slight option even with another storm there (again, if it curves and is safe to go to VI)... sad fact of the matter is the tourism industry will be among the first priorities to reopen, it's where a lot of their money comes from and they need it to repair the damage.

 

[heywheresperry]

No they said that is the one scenario whee we could get refunded, but the rep said he hasn't seen that happen in the 11 years he has been there

We were booked for the October 2016 Fantasy cruise that was affected by Hurricane Matthew. It was shortened to a 6 day cruise and we were given the option for a full refund even though we did not have trip insurance. The only downside is that we weren't given that option until late Thursday so less than 2 days before we were scheduled to set sail.

 

[mevelandry]

The Majesty had nowhere to go. Nassau is too close to the storm to risk basing the whole cruise on and RC has too many ships using Coco Cay to have the ease of moving that port like DCL does. Not to mention, Coco Cay uses tender boats which are far more effected by rougher seas.

The enchantment is a no brainer. That port is expected to take a direct hit.

The Dream can dock at Castaway Cay on Saturday and be fine, there are no other ships planning to be there as the Fantasy is at PC, then go bob around in the water near PC Sunday watching the storm track and safely tuck away in harbor if it gets too rough. Plus Disney has the benefit with Castaway Cay if they need to get out early, say 1:00, they can. In Nassau too many private excursions to locate everyone, CC you just round them up and apologize. Unless Irma makes a drastic unexpected turn South, Nassau is probably a low percentage shot.

According to the maps and the potential paths I've seen, Castaway Cay is directly on (or very close) on at least 2 out 3 possible paths that Irma could take...

But we'll see how it goes.

 

[mevelandry]

I just read on the 09/09 cruise FB page that an update was issued and Princess and Carnival have cancelled their sailings this coming weekend. Granted the ones that have been cancelled are 3 and 4 day sailings, however has anyone had any experience or knowledge if Disney will follow suit?

Nothing on Carnival sailings this coming week-end yet... But since RCCL cancelled them, I wouldn't be surprised if Carnival did the same.

 

[Jen B.]

We are on a reposition out of San Juan to Miami in 85 days. Puerto Rico is about to take a direct hit from Cat 5 Irma. I guess we will wait and see what happens.

 

[Spize]

Nothing on Carnival sailings this coming week-end yet... But since RCCL cancelled them, I wouldn't be surprised if Carnival did the same.

Can I be 100% honest? This is where my MBA nose takes over and says there is absolutely no weather reason to have cancelled a cruise out of port Canaveral as of now.

However, as a manager myself if that cruise happened to be... say... underbooked and not profitable I might be inclined to cancel it and save a few bucks, you know, when everyone is sure it's because of weather.

Not saying that's what it is, but smells like it.

 

[OneTrueKing]

Just took a peek at latest Irma update... 9/08 cruise should be able to get in and out of port that day, but the question becomes "will Disney do a cruise to nowhere?"

There is a fine for it, but DCL has higher margins on their cruises than others... the advantage of being Disney.

The other question becomes, is there a path for a 3 day cruise to nowhere around Irma?

 

[Disneylovebirds]

Can I be 100% honest? This is where my MBA nose takes over and says there is absolutely no weather reason to have cancelled a cruise out of port Canaveral as of now.

However, as a manager myself if that cruise happened to be... say... underbooked and not profitable I might be inclined to cancel it and save a few bucks, you know, when everyone is sure it's because of weather.

Not saying that's what it is, but smells like it.

There are gas shortages and the roads will soon be clogged from people heading north. Maimi-Dade where RCCL is based out of will have school and county closures thurs and fri. We are assuming corporations will be closing offices in the area too, to allow time to board up and prepare. Maybe that is a factor in their decision as well? Not sure but I'm hoping Disney follows suit because there is no way I'm making it up there on Friday.

 

[Rjw615]

Governor Scott just suspended all tolls across the State of Florida.