Hurricane Paloma

[JimMIA]

There is a hurricane in the Central Caribbean, but it probably will not affect WDW or Vero if it stays on the projected track.

Hurricane Paloma formed slowly off Central America and became a Category 1 hurricane yesterday. Paloma is currently located south of Grand Cayman, moving north at about 8 MPH. Paloma currently has 80 MPH winds, but that strength may increase to Category 3 (111-130 MPH) as the storm turns NE and moves between the Caymans and Cuba on Saturday.

24+ hours out, Paloma will enter an environment where it will be subject to strong shearing winds, and for that reason, there are two schools of thought about what will happen to the storm.

The forecast track calls for Paloma to strengthen to Category 3, but then weaken to Category 2 (96-110 MPH) prior to striking central Cuba on Sunday. That track then calls for Paloma to weaken to a tropical storm over Cuba, pass NE through the central Bahamas and then move quickly out into the Atlantic Ocean.

The other theory calls for the shear to break Paloma apart before it hits Cuba and reduce it to a low pressure system, which will then drift north or even NW. If that happens, South and Central Florida could experience a couple of days of substantial rains. Winds would not be a factor in that scenario -- just a couple of rainy days.

This storm should not affect vacationers at WDW or Vero, but it's good to keep an eye on it, because the weather environment is unsettled and the path of the system is unclear.

I'm not going to be doing daily updates unless the system changes significantly from the forecast.

 

[BCV23]

Thanks as always, Jim.

Cuba has certainly had more than its share of hurricanes this season, hasn't it?

 

[JimMIA]

Thanks as always, Jim.

Cuba has certainly had more than its share of hurricanes this season, hasn't it?

Yep, Cuba and Haiti sure have! Also, the Turks and Caicos.

 

[JimMIA]

Hurricane Paloma intensified more rapidly than expected. It hit Grand Cayman as a Category 3 and then intensified to Category 4 with winds of 140 MPH and gusts to 160 MPH. It has just passed over Little Cayman and Cayman Brac at that intensity, so those islands will be hard-hit.

The track has shifted a little to the right and the storm is now headed for the east-central part of Cuba. However, the satellite loops look to me like the storm is moving ENE and is headed more for the mountainous eastern end of Cuba. It should still be a Cat 4 when it hits Cuba. (For reference, Katrina was a Cat 3 when she hit the Gulf Coast east of New Orleans in 2005.)

Although this is a very powerful storm, the forecast still calls for the storm to be torn apart by interaction with Cuba and shearing winds. The problem with that forecast is that storms of this intensity often generate their own weather and can be more resistant to shear than predicted. Hopefully, the storm will hit the mountains and be greatly weakened as the forecast predicts, and then the shear will blow it apart.

It's currently predicted to be nothing but a remnant low pressure area in the central Bahamas by Wednesday morning, but we're still going to be keeping a close eye on it here in South Florida.

 

[dgaston]

Again thanks for your hurricane expertise Jim!

 

[DisDaydreamer]

Thanks, Jim. Don't remember having a hurricane this late in recent times. Have we had one this late in say the last 10 years?

 

[JimMIA]

Thanks, Jim. Don't remember having a hurricane this late in recent times. Have we had one this late in say the last 10 years?

It's unusual, but yes. As a matter of fact, last year we had Tropical Storm Olga that hit the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Puerto Rico on Dec 11-12 and inflicted 25 deaths. 22 of those were in the DR, two in Haiti and one in Puerto Rico.

Hopefully, Paloma won't be that destructive even though it's much stronger.

And hopefully, it won't affect Haiti, which has enough on its plate with governmental turmoil and a school building collapse which has 80 dead and about 150 or so still missing.