Hurricane Ivan's Track

[HumanCookie]

Good news for Florida (I hope). Bad news for Gulf Coast States.

Intended Target (?) maybe TEXAS

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GRADUAL CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE LAST DAY OR SO WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE HURRICANE MOVING ON A
TRACK NOT AS CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THIS MAY BE GOOD NEWS
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...IT IS NOT SO FOR OTHER REGIONS OF THE EASTERN
GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN
FORCING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...DELAYING THE
EXPECTED NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TURN
IS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK INCREASES
THE HURRICANE RISK FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION AND
DECREASES IT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN
SHIFTING GRADUALLY WESTWARD.

 

[Sue Sullivan]

We're in a coastal county just South of Tallahassee and we're very nervous. Praying that no matter which track it takes, it weakens considerably.

 

[silver7]

I don't think it will come to Texas, because we have a high pressure system over the state right now.

 

[john2u]

They are telling us here in New Orleans that because of the shift in its track we need to pay close attention to the storm.

 

[ivanova]

Originally posted by john2u
They are telling us here in New Orleans that because of the shift in its track we need to pay close attention to the storm.

When we visited New Orleans, we were told by locals that hurricanes are a big worry there, the city could actually flood .. scary .. will be praying for you & everyone else.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

My prayers our with you.

YIKES...just saw the 8pm and Ivan is now a 5!!!

I hope he weakens as did Frances--she was only a 2 but wreaked havoc on our coastal hotels, allowed some homes (as ours) to escape unscathed while causing serious damage to other homes.

Blessings to all of you on the Gulf!


Lisa

 

[adisneymama]

Hi, Here is the link to the National Hurricane centers website. If you click on Maps/Charts it will give you the 3 and 5 day forecast. I am right in the middle of this thing. When you click the 5 day map I live just below the line for 2 am Thursday!


www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[JulieWent]

Hey, ADisneyMama! Me, too! We're in Auburn holding our breath. Looks like it's shifted a little bit. But we've been around hurricanes enough years to know that we won't really know anything until sometime Wednesday, I guess. Keep your fingers crossed. Our family down in Pensacola is starting to sweat a little, I think.

Julie

 

[adisneymama]

Julie, we are in Dothan. But we are from Mobile originally. Small world! We are very use to hurricanes and will continue to monitor this one closely.

 

[HumanCookie]

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 12
HOURS BUT IVAN COULD STILL BE A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE WHEN IT
REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

THE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE
WESTERLIES. THE RIDGE AND ITS WEAKNESS ARE NOT VERY PRONOUNCED AND
THE FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...10 KT OR LESS. WHEN THE FORWARD MOTION IS SLOW ...THE
DIRECTION OF MOTION IS LESS CERTAIN. THIS IS SEEN IN THE SPREAD OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE GFS SHOWS A LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A LANDFALL IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...ALL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS IS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08. MOST OF THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LEFT FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...
EXCEPT THE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 N MI LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72 HOURS AND IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF ALL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS. IF I DID NOT HAVE A PREVIOUS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH...I WOULD HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK
EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT. MEANWHILE...SINCE THE MOTION IS STILL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...THE CENTER COULD MISS THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
AND MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND COULD EVEN APPROACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IF A 300 DEGREE HEADING IS MAINTAINED FOR ANOTHER
24 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

 

[beccas334]

We're in Montgomery, and the base here (Maxwell AFB) just put us on alert.. HURCON4 (never knew we HAD hurcons!). They're expecting winds at approx. 70 mph. My only concern is the three huge trees in my yard.. and the fact my front yard ends up almost a swimming pool after a storm.. can't wait to see what happens with more than that!

becca