Hurricane Irene - Wed, 2 PM update, page 4, post 53

[CBork1]

I would plan on a delay, since they're calling for a deluge in Baltimore already. 5+ inches of rain must slow the airport down somewhat, not to mention how bad traffic will be getting in an out. I'm not sure how you get there, but the tunnels/bridges around Baltimore can sometimes get shut down in heavy rain/wind events.

Thanks! But when is this 5+ inches of rain supposed to hit Baltimore? If its from Irene, i'm hoping we'll be long gone before that hits. By the time we leave at 8AM on Saturday, it should be hitting South Carolina...Or better yet, staying out to sea!!!

 

[com_op_2000]

Jim, thanks for the update.

I'm not asking this question to be flip, but because I honesty don't know--how bad can hurricanes be at WDW? I know hurricanes or tropical systems can be devastating inland (I live in Baltimore and we've had some pretty bad damage from storms) but can storms stay strong enough over Florida to hit WDW with their full force? Again, I'm really just curious.

Looks like the 11am update takes Irene even further off the coast.

I work for the local county gov't here in Orlando. Yes storms can stay strong enough to effect WDW; Hurricane Charlie came through Central Florida as a Cat 2 back in 2004. I worked at the Emergency Operations Center that day/night for over 24 hours straight.

 

[newyorkmike]

The local New York weather forecasts are calling for rain and high winds from Irene on Sunday. Saturday's forecast is still relatively clear (no rain, with clouds and high winds moving in late).

My parents and son are scheduled to fly out of JFK Saturday night at 6 on Jetblue and arrive at MCO at 9 for a one week stay at AKL-Kidani. I'm hoping that with the clear weather in NY they can get out and fly around the storm, but these days I don't know how willing airlines are to spend the extra fuel to fly around a storm. It is a waiting game now.

 

[cloudnut220]

I work for the local county gov't here in Orlando. Yes storms can stay strong enough to effect WDW; Hurricane Charlie came through Central Florida as a Cat 2 back in 2004. I worked at the Emergency Operations Center that day/night for over 24 hours straight.

Thank you for sharing your experience. Like I said, I know they can be devastating inland. I have my own reasons for wishing Irene out to sea...I'm supposed to be running a half marathon in coastal NJ this weekend...not really something I want to do in a tropical system...

 

[johnsbelt]

For people flying in, there are really two issues. One is what the storm does; the other is what your airline does. Airlines can't repo aircraft during a storm, so they often move them well ahead of the storm and that can make big changes in your flight schedules.

I don't want to hijack the thread but this should be somewhat applicable to several that are reading this thread.

What happens with your reservation if you don't make it on check-in day? Let's say for instance, you are supposed to arrive on Saturday for 7 nights. Can you call DVC and let them know the situation and that you would still get your room when you arrive on let's say Sunday or Monday (for only 5 or 6 nights)? Or are you totally outta luck with the entire reservation?

I mostly lurk and read, since I'm still in the learning mode.

Thanks to all in advance,

 

[JimMIA]

For those flying out of the Mid-Atlantic to New England area on the weekend, you really have two issues.

One is the weather, and the weather on the ground at your departure point, at the airport your aircraft is coming from, or your destination is really what matters.

A storm system like this, even a major hurricane isn't a big deal to get around. The airlines will fly around the weather, more for comfort than safety (keep in mind that these planes fly in 100+ MPH winds all the time when they cross the jet stream, and their speed alone is creating a 400+ MPH wind).

But if the weather is lousy on the ground in any of the above sites, you can expect the normal delays you always see due to thunderstorms in the NE.

The other big question-mark is the repostioning decisions the airlines must make ahead of a storm system. Whatever moves they decide to make will be completed well in front of the storm, and those decisions may impact you more than the weather.

Nobody can tell you what your airline is going to do about repos. You just have to stay in touch with them.

 

[DMKEDM]

You just made my day, Jim!

Everything suggests that Irene's timing is such that any nastiness she brings to our area (Wash, DC) will happen after my flight...and my flight is well after Irene is supposed to have blown by FL...I was really more worried about flying over, around or thru her...the timing as of now has her in SC at the time of my flight...

I think we'll be ok w/respect to aircraft positioning...the flight I'm on is one that hops back and forth (non-stop) between DCA and MCO 3-4 times/day...it doesn't originate elsewhere. But I guess we'll see...

And for the PP who wants to know how DVC will manage a "lost night" due to weather delay: I had that experience during the blizzards of 2009...my flight out canceled after MS had closed on Saturday, and I was due in on Sunday...I called CRO and they moved my reservation from Sunday to Monday...they even gave me my Sat points back (in holding, but I got them back)...they're used to and good at handling these kinds of weather-related issues...

I don't recall now, how they managed to get this done...I do know CRO had to deal with MS, but whether they did the actual processing the next day or they had a way to get thru to MS after closing I don't recall. I do recall (vividly) that they were GREAT about making sure I'd still have my reservations on Monday...

As it turned out, those blizzards were so bad (particularly w/respect to aircraft repositioning and snow removal issues) that the first available flight out was the day after my vacation was to end...so I wound up losing the whole vacation (but MS gave me my points back, in holding)...but Disney was great about making the "same day" adjustment when my flight in on the day of arrival canceled "after hours."

I'm sure they'll be just as good at making sure you keep your "day 2" of your reservation if weather prevents you from arriving on your planned check-in day.

 

[JimMIA]

The 5 PM update is pretty much a continuation of what's been happening for the last several days -- more intensification, more inching the official forecast track to the east, continued resistance to moving east from the one outlier computer model.

At 5 PM, Irene's center was located just north of the east end of the Dominican Republic. The storm is expected to remain offshore, moving along the north coast of Hispaniola. There will be some interaction with the mountains of the DR and Haiti, but the storm center will be over open and increasingly warmer water as she moves NW, reaching Category 2 intensity Tuesday night.

Hurricane Irene is now expected to reach Category 3 strength (111-130 MPH) by Thursday afternoon. That makes her a big nasty storm. In the careful language of the National Hurricane Center, the general description of a Category 3 storm is "Devastating damage will occur."

On Thursday afternoon, the center of the official projection is shown about 120 miles due East of Miami. However, the National Hurricane Center warns against looking at the middle of the track because of the wide variance in accuracy beyond 3 days in the future.

Further up the road, landfall (which had been expected on the central Georgia coast has now moved through SC to the NC/SC border (Myrtle Beach) area. That's a result of the projected track of the storm slowly inching to the east.

Again, however, it's important to remember that this thing could be 200 miles one way or the other from the center of the projected track. To get an idea what that means, if you look at the circle for Saturday afternoon, the storm center could be anywhere from Jacksonville, FL to Baltimore, MD! It's also important to understand that a hurricane is not a point on a map, but a very broad area of very bad weather. Regardless of where the center is, there might be hurricane force winds across a front more than 100 miles wide.

It's still too early to call, but I think by tomorrow night (Tuesday night) or Wednesday morning, we'll have a much more clear picture of where the storm is going.

 

[com_op_2000]

Hurricane Irene Cat 2 reached tonight.

 

[dis-happy]

The 5 PM update is pretty much a continuation of what's been happening for the last several days -- more intensification, more inching the official forecast track to the east, continued resistance to moving east from the one outlier computer model.

At 5 PM, Irene's center was located just north of the east end of the Dominican Republic. The storm is expected to remain offshore, moving along the north coast of Hispaniola. There will be some interaction with the mountains of the DR and Haiti, but the storm center will be over open and increasingly warmer water as she moves NW, reaching Category 2 intensity Tuesday night.

Hurricane Irene is now expected to reach Category 3 strength (111-130 MPH) by Thursday afternoon. That makes her a big nasty storm. In the careful language of the National Hurricane Center, the general description of a Category 3 storm is "Devastating damage will occur."

On Thursday afternoon, the center of the official projection is shown about 120 miles due East of Miami. However, the National Hurricane Center warns against looking at the middle of the track because of the wide variance in accuracy beyond 3 days in the future.

Further up the road, landfall (which had been expected on the central Georgia coast has now moved through SC to the NC/SC border (Myrtle Beach) area. That's a result of the projected track of the storm slowly inching to the east.

Again, however, it's important to remember that this thing could be 200 miles one way or the other from the center of the projected track. To get an idea what that means, if you look at the circle for Saturday afternoon, the storm center could be anywhere from Jacksonville, FL to Baltimore, MD! It's also important to understand that a hurricane is not a point on a map, but a very broad area of very bad weather. Regardless of where the center is, there might be hurricane force winds across a front more than 100 miles wide.

It's still too early to call, but I think by tomorrow night (Tuesday night) or Wednesday morning, we'll have a much more clear picture of where the storm is going.

Thanks for the update, with a big UGH. May need to head off to the SC coast to start pulling in furniture....

 

[com_op_2000]

Local news in Orlando is stating Irene will grow to be a Cat 4 with 135 winds by Thursday.

 

[buzz5985]

Jim, thanks for the update.

I'm not asking this question to be flip, but because I honesty don't know--how bad can hurricanes be at WDW? I know hurricanes or tropical systems can be devastating inland (I live in Baltimore and we've had some pretty bad damage from storms) but can storms stay strong enough over Florida to hit WDW with their full force? Again, I'm really just curious.

Looks like the 11am update takes Irene even further off the coast.

I was at the BWV during Charlie. The parks closed about 1 PM and were open the following day by 9 am. Minimal damage in the parks, but outside was a different story. I can't remember the exact timeline, but we extended our stay at BWV for 1 night because we were afraid of being unable to find gas on our drive home. We had a tough time finding a room for that extra day. When driving home - this had to be a good 4 days after the hurricane - outside the parks was still a mess. Debri everywhere, live wires still laying around, etc.

Now here I sit at my favorite DVC resort - HHI. Scheduled to drive home to MA on Saturday.

Jim - thank you for your updates. I filled my gas tank up today, just in case. If I have to go home the inland route - fine with me. I think I will ask the front desk tomorrow what type of pollicy they have, evacuation, etc. I believe they have evacuated HHI 3 times?? I could be wrong.

Janis

 

[jerseygal]

BEST OF LUCK WITH IRENE! MAY EVERYONE BE SAFE!!!

I purchase trip insuance through Travelguard for DVC points just for this purpose...It includes both trip cancellation and interruption! The reimbursement is $5.00 per point...No, not a lot at all, but for a very minimal amount through Travelguard, I look at it like this..

I used I believe 180 points 2 weeks ago between VWL and BCV.....I almost covered my maintenance fee for the year if something happens in regard to illness, severe weather that my trip is cancelled...Love it also in that it covers baggage as well on the airline! I've purchased Travelguard now annually for the last 3 summers...

YOU NEVER KNOW!

BEST OF LUCK WITH IRENE...MAYBE IT WILL CHANGE COURSE!

 

[Princesca]

Hoping everyone has a good time and stays safe. I'm a Red Cross volunteer outside the region, and we are in a state of readiness, on standby, in case there's a need to deploy. Hoping nobody has to!

 

[JimMIA]

At 8 AM this morning, Hurricane Irene was located just north of the island of Hispaniola, roughly even with the border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti, moving WNW at about 10 KT. The storm is expected to shift NW and then North over the next two days.

There are currently no watches or warnings posted for the United States.

Hurricane reports are always good news/bad news. The bad news -- as expected, the storm strengthened to 100 MPH sustained winds, which makes Irene a Category 2 storm. Over the next two days, once Irene clears the effects of the mountains of Hispaniola and moves across the Bahamas, she is expected to increase both in size and intensity, reaching Category 4 intensity (131+ MPH sustained winds) Thursday.

It looks like the most populated parts of the Bahamas (New Providence Is/Nassau, Grand Bahama Is/Freeport, and the Abacos) are going to take a very hard hit from a dangerous Category 4 hurricane on Thursday. For comparison, Hurricane Charlie was a Category 4 hurricane when it flattened Punta Gorda, FL (borderline Cat One...maybe...when it hit Orlando). I'm sure we'll be getting a big influx of refugees here in Miami today and tomorrow, and our Urban Search and Rescue teams are already geared up and ready to go.

There is some good news -- actually VERY good news -- for Florida. The last outlying computer model finally gave up last night and all of the models are now in pretty good agreement. It now looks like Irene will pass by to the east of Florida, probably no closer than 120 miles away. There should be a good bit of rain on Friday at VB and WDW.

They expect tropical storm winds to be extending out 150-160 miles NW of the storm, so it looks like VB will have about a 50% chance of getting tropical storm force winds on Friday and very high waves. That will create very dangerous surf conditions, and anyone at Vero should stay out of the water.

It's very important to remember that hurricanes are broad areas, not a single point. For example, right now at Cat 2 strength, Irene has hurricane force winds across an 80 mile wide front, tropical storm force winds across a 310 mile front, and 12-foot seas across a 330 mile front. And this storm is just starting to grow. By the time it gets in position to effect VB, those TS and 12-foot seas numbers will probably increase.

Eventual landfall shows as the lower NC coast on Sunday at a Category 3 hurricane. However, that one pesky (and very reliable) computer model is showing mid-SC coastline landfall.

 

[cloudnut220]

Thanks for the update Jim.

 

[DMKEDM]

Jim, you are truly a prince for sharing this info w/us...I find it interesting even when I'm not planning a WDW trip during an approaching storm...I'm "living for" your posts now that I am scheduled to travel to WDW in/around Irene's "force field!"

Not that I'm hyper or anything (who, me?--grin), but am I interpreting your information correctly when I conclude that (1) assuming the airlines don't reposition aircraft in an adverse way, and (2) the current local (Wash, DC) weather report (clear til Sat afternoon) holds true, that my 10 a.m. Sat flight to WDW "should" take off as scheduled, and that weather in Orlando on Sat "should" be ok (at least relative to Irene)??

Thanks!!!

Dani

 

[JimMIA]

Now here I sit at my favorite DVC resort - HHI. Scheduled to drive home to MA on Saturday.

Jim - thank you for your updates. I filled my gas tank up today, just in case. If I have to go home the inland route - fine with me. I think I will ask the front desk tomorrow what type of pollicy they have, evacuation, etc. I believe they have evacuated HHI 3 times?? I could be wrong.

Janis

You should be fine if you're leaving Saturday AM. The staff there will let you know.

The danger in low-lying coastal areas is the gradual rise in water levels ahead of the storm. 12-foot seas are already extending out 150+ miles north of Irene's center, and that number will go up as the storm grows. That's 12-foot seas 15 hours in front of the storm, and obviously lower levels somwhat ahead of that.

Sometimes those rising sea levels coincide with a high tide WAY ahead of landfall of the center of the storm -- often 24 hours earlier. That sometimes threatens the causeways and other roads and leads to much earlier evacuations than many people expect. Obviously, authorities don't want to wait too long, have the roads impassable, and have people trapped.

 

[CarolAnnC]

Thanks for the storm updates, Jim!

Do you by chance have any info as far as the hit that Disney's island Castaway Cay may sustain? That is also located in the Bahamas. I know there have been some asking on the Cruise Board, and with the upcoming DVC Member Cruise stopping there 2x next month, there has been some concern.

Thank you again!

 

[disprincessatheart]

Great news for anyone headed to disney - not great for us in NC. Plus the earthquake that just hit DC - rough week for the east coast! I guess some people felt it here in Raleigh, I heard what sounded like my toddler's train set moving, but the toddler is asleep - was sure someone was in the house or it was haunted. THen i heard about the earthquake about the same time, so I'm going with earthquake made the trains roll a little.