Hurricane Dorian FINALLY moving - updates pg 10

[Shelly F - Ohio]

Very helpful, and it's nice to see someone making positive contributions! Thanks.
AND...the Carolinas.

Both North and South Carolina have several rivers feeding into the ocean, and the combination of heavy rain inland, tides, and storm surge (which will be greater there than in Florida) are likely to back those rivers up and cause extensive flooding.

That's what we saw with Florence, and will see again with Dorian.

True they are saying when it is in the Carolina's it will be a cat 2 so you will have lots of storm surge to deal with

 

[DisneyDeb83]

Shows the storm in the Carolina's and Virginia come the end of the week so MCO will be open. SWA will be able to fly around the storm in the Carolina's You should have nothing to worry about as far as getting to MCO on Friday

I thought that when they reopened MCO after Irma they didn’t do so until 10 am. If our flight was later in the day I don’t think I’d be so paranoid.

Thanks for the vote of confidence!

 

[Future_WorldPhonencian]

True they are saying when it is in the Carolina's it will be a cat 2 so you will have lots of storm surge to deal with

Good to know! We are actually South Carolinian's but I didnt want to overwhelm people with too much Information.

Drive Safe and smart folks and closely monitor road conditions!

SC DOT Website

NC DOT Website

GA DOT Website

FL DOT Website

Google Maps

 

[DisneyDeb83]

Seems to me there is more likely to be a storm impact at PHL on Friday, and definitely on SAT, than at MCO.

Yeah Jim, that crossed my mind, too!

 

[JimMIA]

Here's a good close look at Dorian, taken at 12:56 EDT



The island just at the edge of the eye is Great Abaco. The western edge of the eye is almost on top of the town of Marsh Harbor -- the most populous town on Abaco. The island running E-W to the west of Abaco is Grand Bahama, where Freeport is located. The little white dot between Great Abaco and Grand Bahama is Castaway Cay.

From now to Tuesday morning, the storm (currently packing 185 mph winds) is only going to move from where it is in the picture to the west end of Grand Bahama. They are really going to get pounded.

 

[JimMIA]

One other suggestion, courtesy of ATT who sent me an alert earlier

Go to your cell phone settings and turn WIFI ON.

High winds love cell phone towers, but if cell service gets knocked out you will still be able to use your phone via WiFi wherever you have internet.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

I thought that when they reopened MCO after Irma they didn’t do so until 10 am. If our flight was later in the day I don’t think I’d be so paranoid.

Thanks for the vote of confidence!

But they are closing MCO on Monday if they need to right now they are not closing the airport as they had first said and your flight is Friday so you should not have much to worry about. Unless MCO sustains major damage then it will be closed for who knows how long. But you will have a good idea as your travel date gets here. But if you are going in Jan then I would book a flight for Sat just in case then use the money for Jan if you have cancel

 

[JimMIA]

Palm Beach County starting Mandatory evacuations

Palm Beach County has ordered the first mandatory evacuations of some coastal areas. If you are in PB County, pay close attention to local authorities.

 

[Bianca and Bernard]

A few bits from NE FL. This is more local news, but the evacuations are going to impact roadways and gas stations, so I thought I'd share.

Several counties have closed schools for Tues/Wednesday, including Duval, Clay, Flagler, and St Johns, to name a few.

St Johns County is starting mandatory evacuations for Monday morning. Zones A& B, Hastings and Flagler Estates; this covers St Augustine, St Augustine Beach and waterfront/flood prone areas. Also RVs, Mobile Homes and manufactured homes. Which means, we are going to be seeing more crowded roadways.

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hu...cuation-for-zones-a-b-starting-at-8-am-monday

Video from Abaco Islands

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=431513500821493

 

[Alexis56578]

I just realized that I've been so relieved about Orlando possibly being okay that I forgot our layover on the 8th is in Charlotte.

 

[JimMIA]

A few bits from NE FL. This is more local news, but the evacuations are going to impact roadways and gas stations, so I thought I'd share.

Several counties have closed schools for Tues/Wednesday, including Duval, Clay, Flagler, and St Johns, to name a few.

St Johns County is starting mandatory evacuations for Monday morning. Zones A& B, Hastings and Flagler Estates; this covers St Augustine, St Augustine Beach and waterfront/flood prone areas. Also RVs, Mobile Homes and manufactured homes. Which means, we are going to be seeing more crowded roadways.

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hu...cuation-for-zones-a-b-starting-at-8-am-monday

Video from Abaco Islands

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=431513500821493

That video doesn't look too bad until you realize that that is the OCEAN flowing down the street!

The NHC predicts storm surge on Great Abaco of 18-23 feet above normal sea level. For reference, the highest spot on Great Abaco is a little more than 120 feet. On Grand Bahama there is ONE rock that is 40 feet tall, and that's the tallest thing on the island.

The eye of Dorian has now passed over Great Abaco and they are on the back side of the storm.

However, in this particular case, the back side is not much of a bargain. Because the storm is moving so slowly, the winds on the back side are almost as strong as the front side. And of course, some of the storm surge will then go back the other way.

 

[JimMIA]

Sunday 4 PM Update

This is probably be it for today. We're going to a friend's house for ribs, so I probably won't post anything when we come back. I also am moving Grandma early in the morning, so it will probably be Noon or later before I check in.

This is a little different look at the storm from the NHC. I like it because it's interactive and I can zoom in and out to get a closer look. Here's the 4 PM map:



This shows a much closer view, so you can see where the storm is right now and get a much better idea of the windfield.

Windfield: The orange area in the center is >79 mph winds. The yellowish-green area is >58 mph winds, and the light green area is tropical storm winds of >39 mph. You can also see that the windfield is lopsided -- winds are stronger and more widely spread on the "right side" of tropical systems.

Currently the sustained winds are about 185 mph, with gusts over 200 -- and that will continue until tomorrow when the storm will very slowly begin to weaken.

Path: Dorian has crossed Great Abaco and will be moving just north of Grand Bahama tomorrow. For reference, the left tip of the red line over Freeport is about 90 miles from West Palm Beach, FL.

Don't focus on the dots or line, but the dots are 12 hours apart. So what that tells us is that the storm has already begun its swing toward the north and will pass north of the island of Grand Bahama where Freeport is tomorrow. You can see from the windfield that Orlando can expect tropical storm conditions on Wednesday.

Obviously this can and will change over time, but there have not been any major shifts in the models today.

Stay safe and pay close attention to this storm if you are in Florida, or coming to Florida over the next few days.

 

[Bianca and Bernard]

https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Lots of info there, mostly for SE GA and NE FL.

 

[JaxDad]

A few bits from NE FL. This is more local news, but the evacuations are going to impact roadways and gas stations, so I thought I'd share.

Several counties have closed schools for Tues/Wednesday, including Duval, Clay, Flagler, and St Johns, to name a few.

St Johns County is starting mandatory evacuations for Monday morning. Zones A& B, Hastings and Flagler Estates; this covers St Augustine, St Augustine Beach and waterfront/flood prone areas. Also RVs, Mobile Homes and manufactured homes. Which means, we are going to be seeing more crowded roadways.

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hu...cuation-for-zones-a-b-starting-at-8-am-monday

Video from Abaco Islands

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=431513500821493

Duval Zones A and B will also start evacuations Monday at 0800.

 

[JimMIA]

Quick update:

The NHC apparently posted this late.

A Hurricane WARNING has been posted from Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia County Line as of 5 PM this evening. This warning includes all the coastal areas on the east coast opposite the Orlando area.

The hurricane is NOT forecast to come ashore there, or anywhere else in Florida, but hurricane conditions could occur and residents need to take appropriate precautions.

 

[Bianca and Bernard]

People, if you were planning driving in to FL to go to WDW, please don't. Those of us who are in the path of this storm are in need of the fuel and the space on the roadways to get out of harms way. Even if the eye doesn't make landfall, we will most likely still get the outer bands, and that means high wind, lots of rain and storm surge coming in on top of the King tides. There will most likely be damage up and and down the coast.

South Carolina is evacuating the entire coastline. I-26 in Charleston will have lane reversal starting at noon tomorrow; all lanes on I-26 will head to I-77 in Columbia, starting on I-26 @I-526.

Georgia is evacuating Chatham County and much of the coast, all areas East of I-95 and some parts West of I-95 that could be impacted.

FL: Martin County (including Hutchinson and Jupiter Islands, Sewall's Point); Indian River (anyone East of US 1); Brevard (low lying, mobile homes, etc--extending from Kennedy Space Center south to the county line, as well as Merritt Island and includes Cape Canaveral Hospital); St Johns (Posted before, zones A& B--St Augustine, St Augustine Beach, Hastings); Volusia (low lying, mobile homes, etc); Duval (zones A & B) and Nassau (Zones A, C,& F).

FL: Drawbridges in Miami-Dade are being locked down to boat traffic, still open to cars for now. Port Miami and port tunnel are closed to all traffic. TriRail closes Monday. All drawbridges in Broward and 2 drawbridges in Martin are closed. Ports in Miami and Key West are closed, and some ships must leave ports due to sustained winds. Tolls are being suspended on several highways, including Florida Turnpike, Alligator Alley, Sawgrass Expressway, and Beachlines Expressway; and shoulders will be opened if needed to handle traffic.

Fuel shortages are being reported around the state, but trucks will be delivering fuel as long as they can.

FL: Thirty school districts have closed; several dozen colleges have closed. WDW will close Blizzard Beach, and sporting events are cancelled; be prepared for impacts. Naval Air Station Jacksonville and Naval Air Station Mayport, Patrick AFB and MacDill AFB are on alert status and are moving some aircraft out of state. We have a huge rip current threat along the FL coastline.

https://www.floridadisaster.org/knowyourzone/

just a note: Dorian is a Cat 5. Storm Surge in the Bahamas is possibly up to 23 FEET. Wind gusts over 220 MPH are possible (I've heard they have topped 200, but I'm not sure how much); the sustained winds are 185 MPH. To give you an idea...Test Track is 65 MPH, Rock n Roller Coaster is 60mph; Kingda Ka @six Flags New Jersey is 128 MPH. So..yeah.

 

[lorenae]

Some of my friends have mandatory evacuations as far north as Jacksonville (Duvel county), and have already left but others will be on the roads tonight and tomorrow. Gas shortages will be a problem, as will open motel rooms. Please keep this in mind should you choose to go on vacation to Florida- WDW might be safe, but others are trying to make it to shelter.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

They are saying now the winds are the same strength as a EF4 tornado. And it is slow moving making for lots of destruction

 

[ILoveMyDVC]

There were gas shortages when we filled up the rental car on Friday evening. The gas station in front of the Boardwalk was almost out and other motorists reported nearby stations were completely out.

 

[Bjkandma]

Locals are filling up, if they are asked (either voluntarily or mandatory) to evacuate, one less thing to do. Others deciding to vacation or leave are also filling up. Fuel will be sent in as long as it is safe to do so.