Huge Variations in Crowd Calendars: TP vs EasyWDW

[quest4dl]

I understand that the crowd predictions are only guesstimates and that everyone has their favourite provider of this information. For those that use both, have you found one to be more accurate than the other?

I just got a crowd tracker update from TP. The crowds for last week of March have been downgraded by 2 points pretty consistently for the week. EasyWDW always had the higher prediction of mostly 9s for the week but TP is showing it closer to 7s now (and several 6s, some 8s).

I'd love to be hopeful about TP's predictions. Btw, the park hours have not changed (I know that can affect predictions). What would cause the lower prediction and do you think this is accurate?

It seems EasyWDW takes a little longer to update their data so perhaps they will follow suit.

 

[ucfknight]

Pretty much every county in Central Florida besides Seminole has spring break March 22 through March 30:
Orange, Osceola, Volusia, Lake, Brevard, Polk

When that happens, the parks tend to get flooded with locals.

The Miami area also has spring break that week (Dade and Broward counties), plus a lot of schools up North.

 

[sharonabe]

TP basis theirs on historical data. Their original predictions would've had last year's numbers and that was Easter week. They MAY have downgraded after adjusting for that.

 

[catne]

That's interesting...we go fairly often, for short trips...and over the last year I have had the impression that TP is way off very often. Our experience has been TP is predicting much higher crowds than actually happen.

Now you're saying for your days, it's easyWDW with the higher crowd predicitions. I don't know what's going on with the predictors...or which one to pay attention to. I do know TP has changed their formula and format...maybe that's it and I just don't understand the new ratings? But if that's it, I have no idea why they predict huge crowds when in fact they are very small.

Our recent early January trip, TP had Epcot at a "9"...easyWDW had the whole place as a "4" that day, and "green" on Epcot. And that was a Sunday at Epcot...I even got an email update from TP on the day before (Saturday) telling me they had updated Sunday to a "9" from an "8". So supposedly they had some last minute information that warranted raising that park that day.

Actual crowd size that day at Epcot, I would say a "3" at most. Sure Soarin' & Test Track did get 70 minute stand-by at one point. BUT both those rides still had paper fastpasses at 10:30 AM...and a lot of the day the supposed stand-by wait at Soarin was 60 min...people coming off were saying it was really 30 or 40. Everything else was a walk-on all day. We were at Epcot from about 8:30 (so before park opened) until about 4:00...so during what should have been the busy part of the day. Went back for Illuminations...people were finding good spots at the railing 10 minutes before it started.

 

[quest4dl]

Pretty much every county in Central Florida besides Seminole has spring break March 22 through March 30:
Orange, Osceola, Volusia, Lake, Brevard, Polk

When that happens, the parks tend to get flooded with locals.

The Miami area also has spring break that week (Dade and Broward counties), plus a lot of schools up North.

And given that, I'm surprised the crowd ratings were lowered so much. I wish it came with an explanation - obviously some new data caused them to change the ratings!

 

[psac]

And given that, I'm surprised the crowd ratings were lowered so much. I wish it came with an explanation - obviously some new data caused them to change the ratings!

That's the thing that made me stop using TP and go exclusively with EasyWDW. Josh (EasyWDW guy) actually gives explanations for each day as to why he has the number given. When he makes changes to the numbers, he again explains why he has done so.

In terms of whether the whole week itself really will be a "7" or a "9", I think it doesn't make too much of a difference if you expect "busy", go at rope drop, and go to the recommended parks each day.

We've used the EasyWDW recommendations on our last two or three trips now, and have defiitely felt they made a positive difference. I would go with their recommended parks for sure.

 

[wisblue]

I got an e mail message yesterday promoting Annual Passholder discounts on rooms for some dates, including March 6- March 29.

That might suggest that resort bookings are lower than expected during that period and that could trigger lowering of crowd estimates.

This year's spring break may be a little different than some other years because Easter is so late. That could spread out the crowds.

 

[quest4dl]

Yes - with Easter so late I was really surprised to see the week we are going (last week of March) to have the highest crowd ratings.

I do wonder if the new FP system is causing some people to reconsider. If I'm local and I can't pre-book FP, then I might wait until it shakes out rather than visit during the testing phase. Well - that could be the hidden silver lining! We did end up changing our last two nights to Universal - will be curious to see if their estimates get revised upwards!

 

[nfceagles]

Good luck figuring it out. I can't imagine what data is coming in to change their prediction now.

I'm tracking our Dec 2014 trip in TPs and I keep getting pretty significant changes too. The first big change I attributed to this past December's results being incorporated, but after that I can't imagine what keeps changing something 11 months away.

 

[999DoomBuggies]

when i get a chance to make a thread about this very issue I will. I have noticed easywdw is very good for a general overview of crowds. I have also noticed that touring plans may have more of a vital presence than ever in terms of line waits. This is due to the new fast pass plus system, calculations, and the reliance on users to provide actual wait times instead of expected wait times. Touring plans can really gain a bigger place at the table in this new system.

As far as general crowd expectations, common sense needs to take over. If you're going during a time most public schools are in session than crowds will be moderate to low and so on and so on.

 

[eliz603]

We are planning 4/1-4-/6. That's our spring break, but like someone noted, the local spring break and college spring break is earlier.

EasyWDW has 7s. TP has 4 and 5. Big difference! We have used TP in the past with much success. Hoping it's right again!

 

[famy27]

We have the same issue for our June dates. TP is predicting 6s, and EasyWDW has 9s. Oh, how I hope TP is correct...

 

[nfceagles]

You could also compare to **************.net's crowd estimates.

 

[CanadianPaco]

I saw the same type of decreases for my week! Thrilled and optimistic!

 

[Spacecase1]

I switched our trip from IJune to September as our Oct 2013 crowds went way up after I purchased, I guess mostly due to the new fall breaks some states instituted. But I'm still worried about crowds as we won't stay on site and therefore can't get FP+.