How reliable is the weather?

[Kevin1986]

On weather.com it is saying there is 30% chance of thunder storms on Thanksgiving day, the day I will be at Magic Kindgom!!! It is still a week away... so how accurate is this predication? should I be worried?

 

[Art 1]

You have nothing to worry about.

 

[Sammie]

I would wait until closer to the date to worry.

 

[mwmom]

When I started watching the 10 day forecast last week they were predicting rain when we get there, but now it is down to 10% chance. Wait until about 5 days out to look again and then look at a local Orlando news station web site. I don't ever find the 10 day forecasts all that accurate.

 

[cschwally]

subscribe

 

[NorweJenNY]

It's Florida... the weather can change any time... not to worry you, but if you're concerned about rain, just think of it as a new opportunity - don your ponchos and go for it! Your experiences in general will have shorter waits and fewer crowds than if the weather is sunny and clear.

Happy Almost Thanksgiving! Enjoy your trip!

 

[BoardWalkBelle]

local weathercast has it being 79 degrees, no rain.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

If you don't like the weather in Florida, wait 15 minutes and try again.

 

[Lynne M]

There's just no point in looking at the weather this far out. It's not at all accurate. Wait until about 3 days before, then you've got at least some chance that it'll be accurate.

BTW, that sounds like a pretty typical forecast for Central FL, since there are often thunderstorms every day in warmer weather. Meaning, don't panic if you still see thunderstorms predicted as you get closer to your trip. They're generally short lived, and everyone ducks into a store or a ride for 10 minutes and then goes about their day.

 

[CTDisneyfan816]

Last year I recall a site being posted where they gave the forecast 15 days out. (I fully realize that the accuracy of said forecast won't be great, but it will give a general sense though of the temperatures). Does anyone recall that site?

 

[gator girl]

It's absolutely positively undeniably 100% reliable. Here in Florida, we are proud to say that we will definitely have weather every. single. day.

Oh, wait... you mean the *forecast*? Yeah, that'll probably change. At least you won't have to worry about the deadly scourge of lovebugs.

 

[Spoonces]

On weather.com it is saying there is 30% chance of thunder storms on Thanksgiving day, the day I will be at Magic Kindgom!!! It is still a week away... so how accurate is this predication? should I be worried?

The other thing that you have to remember is that "Central Florida" is a very large, diverse weather area so the forecast may or may not apply to the area you are in at any given moment. Yesterday was a good example, the forecast was for clouds, heavy rains and possible tornadic activity all day. When I was in the Disney area it was gorgeous, mid 70's, Partly Cloudy, not a drop of rain. My friends down by LegoLand got pummeled, that is a typical Central Florida day. My wife will often call from Disney property to complain about a horrible storm they are having and our house, 12 Miles away will be perfectly clear, happens all the time.

 

[sharkman]

We always plan for the worse. If it calls for a chance of rain that day and we don't bring anything to keep us dry, it will rain!! If it does rain, it usaully dosn't last that long.

 

[Pixie Princess]

Last year I recall a site being posted where they gave the forecast 15 days out. (I fully realize that the accuracy of said forecast won't be great, but it will give a general sense though of the temperatures). Does anyone recall that site?

accuweather.com gives 15 day forecasts.

 

[DisneyLoverUSA]

On our trip (10/27-11/5) I started checking Orlando weather forecast 10 days out. It predicted rain on some days. But every day that I checked it, the forecast was different. The one day it was suppose to rain on Tuesday but the next day it would show no rain on Tuesday but rain on Thursday. It changed EVERY DAY. It ended up raining on us 2 out of our 10 days and neither of the 2 days were days that had been predicted that it would rain.

Try to keep in mind also that even if it does rain on a particular day it may rain for 10 minutes then be gone. Unfortunately one of the days it rained on us, it wasn't a 15 minute rain shower it rained for hours and cut our Magic Kingdom day short. Because even though our TOPS were staying dry because of the ponchos, our legs and shoes got wet. And after 3 hours of wet shoes we just decided to leave. So we didn't even see half of Magic Kingdom. (I will get to revisit it on our adults only trip next October)

Get some cheap rain ponchos at Walmart BEFORE YOU LEAVE because the Walmart in Orlando is HIGH on rain ponchos. The ones you can get at your Walmart for 2 dollars is 6.99 in Orlando. It's almost just the same to wait and buy Disney or Universal rain ponchos for $8 once inside the park, as needed.

And if it does rain ppl will clear out of the parks. We WALKED ON to every ride the day we were getting rained on at MK. Ppl don't wanna stick around once it starts raining.

 

[scion5220]

If you don't like the weather in Florida, wait 15 minutes and try again.

 

[larryz]

The weather in Orlando is 100% reliable. There will be weather every day.

 

[beatlesblonde]

The other thing that you have to remember is that "Central Florida" is a very large, diverse weather area so the forecast may or may not apply to the area you are in at any given moment. Yesterday was a good example, the forecast was for clouds, heavy rains and possible tornadic activity all day. When I was in the Disney area it was gorgeous, mid 70's, Partly Cloudy, not a drop of rain. My friends down by LegoLand got pummeled, that is a typical Central Florida day. My wife will often call from Disney property to complain about a horrible storm they are having and our house, 12 Miles away will be perfectly clear, happens all the time.

True, but Weather.com does allow you to enter The Walt Disney World resort as your chosen location for getting the forecast. But again, anything more than 2-3 days out isn't bound to be really accurate. We're 13 days out and I'm watching it like a hawk to watch for any major changes, I'm hoping it'll stay similar to what it has been.

 

[huffjoann]

it is FL,, small rain showers are very common,,, will it ruin your day,, prob not,,, will it be a bit of a nusiance,, maybe,, but generally, it is not an all day thing
and like PP said, wait a few more days to see what it thinks the weather might be,,,

 

[BoardWalkBelle]

Latest on Tday weather says 20 percent chance of rain but that rain is supposed to be overnight wed into early thurs morn..u should be fine