how reliable are 10 day weather forecasts?

[nurseypoo5]

Ive found something new to worry about!! yippie for me!


Seriously, i planned our MK days for Oct 4 and 5th. Several days AFTER we arrive, and now the 10 day forecasts show 55% chance of thunderstorms. This is especially bad news for our MNSSHP plans.

Should i ignore weather this far out? I know in TX if the weather is bad, give it a minute and it will change but in know nothing of Florida weather.

Thanks and HUGSSSS!

 

[pepe of ohio]

Thats just what these are, forecasts. General info of what could happen, but most likely will not. We take forecasts with a grain of salt, especially in WDW. I'll go with the local radar for the day, make my own judgement but hold no stock in future predictions. Having gone to WDW over 38 trips, have listened and watched the weather from home, once we leave I do not watch the weather in Florida. Nothing you can do once there, we just take what comes, always prepared with our ponchos and never let the weather influance or ruin our trip. I feel the weather is a crap shoot, weather forecasters can give an educated guess and predict, hit or miss still have a job. No offense to weather people around the world, just my take in reading the weather.

 

[jpeppers]

There are always thunder storms in Orlando. As long as it isn't a hurricane I wouldn't worry. If it rains hard buy a poncho and have fun, the rain will stop eventually plus the park will empty out. Just have fun!

 

[makinorlando]

Do not worry about the weather... nothing you can do about it -- good news is next week is supposed to be in the high 80s and not the 90s! "Fall is here"!!!

Today for instance - 40% chance of rain - there are clouds in the sky (again to me a good thing sometimes in the parks) but no rain in sight yet where I live - NE of the parks- I am sure we will get some this afternoon!

For the most part - and yes there are exceptions like the 9/15 MNSSHP - it rains mid-day and is gone by evening. The night of the rain at MNSSHP we did not have a drop at my house 30 miles away - so even when they say rain for Orlando - it is not all of Orlando!

 

[thebecka]

If it rains in Florida ~ 10 minutes later it is clear and dry. If there is a particularly rainy day save it for MGM as there are a lot of indoor activities. Years ago it rained while we were there but had a blast. Have an awesome trip and don't forget to come back to DISboards and tell us all about it!!

 

[PoohPrincess76]

I wouldn't trust them. In July when DH and I got married I kept checking the 10 day. First it said 81 with 25% chance of showers....it ended up being 115, no clouds in site!!

 

[intrep93]

Go to the dollar tree and buy about 40 rain ponchos (enough to last a family of 4 10 days). Make sure you always have some in your backpack or fanny pack so when it rains you can wear them and then throw them away. If you are this prepared, it won't rain!! Seriously - we just got back last week and the entire 10 days the forcast was for 25% - 75% chances of storms. 99% of the time the weather was fantastic. One afternoon parade was cancelled due to storms (at MGM) but we'd alreadys seen that one, and Fantasmic was delayed by about 15 minutes another night because of storms. That night it barely sprinkled at MGM, but they had lightning sensors going off on the "mountain" so they couldn't start the show until the sensors went 15 minutes without detecting any lightning. We didn't have any rain at all 8 of the 10 days. So don't worry about the forcast - even if you watch it in Florida - it will say chances of storms, but then you'll walk out the door into a beautiful day! Have fun!