How often does the ship miss Castaway Cay?

[Lloyd Dobler]

On the off-chance that anyone's still interested, I've finally gotten around to totaling up the Castaway Cay numbers. The 144 responses I've gotten represent 18% of the 812 (my best estimate) total cruises on both ships (378 for the Magic, not counting the current cruise, which won't try CC until Friday, and 434 for the Wonder, not counting the 11/2 cruise, for which I have no result). Anyway, here are my findings:

Magic: Docked 69 of the 70 reported attempts (almost 99%)

Wonder: Docked 71 of the 74 attempts (96%)

Overall: 140 of 144 were successful (97%)

To be honest, this was much higher that I thought it would be. Based on this sample size, you have a better than 19-in-20 chance of being able to dock. Pretty good odds.

Breaking it down by month, it doesn't appear that any single month or time of year is necessarily better than another:

Month   Magic   Wonder   Total

Jan      8-9      8-8    16-17
Feb      5-5      7-8    12-13
Mar      3-3      5-5     8-8
Apr      6-6      7-7    13-13
May      7-7      5-5    12-12
Jun      5-5      4-4     9-9
Jul      6-6      3-3     9-9
Aug      6-6      4-4    10-10
Sep      8-8      7-8    15-16
Oct      6-6     11-12   17-18
Nov      4-4      6-6    10-10
Dec      5-5      4-4     9-9

For what it's worth, one 7-night cruise (eastern), one 4-night, and two 3-night cruises didn't make the call. There was at least one case of a 4-night which missed on the scheduled day, but was able to dock the next day. I'm counting that as successful. However, the one 7-night cruise which was diverted and actually had two successful dockings was only counted once.

Anyway, I'll shut up about this now (I can hear some of you saying, "Finally!"). Again, my sincere thanks for those who responded. I would like to keep this up to date, so if/when you cruise, please drop me a PM and let me know how the ship did at Castaway Cay. When this issue inevitably comes up again in six months or so, I'll have up to date info (for those few who care).

Thanks again for indulging me!

 

[Stepharoonie!]

Wow...and I thought this was something that happened a little more often than that.

I admire you for taking the time and effot to put this together Thanks

 

[jgalecpa]

Lloyd:

On the off-chance that anyone's still interested

You're darn right people are still interested.


A sample size of 144 makes this a quite good study.

You are to be commended for the time and effort you put into this.


This was terric.

But hey, I'm a numbers guy. I prefer facts.

Jim Gale, CPA

 

[bigsky]

Thank you for taking the time to do that! I feel soooo much better now. We'll be leaving soon and I was getting real worried about missing CC. I can breathe a little easier now. Chances are, we'll dock! Yippee

Laura

 

[RellingTwin]

Thanks Lloyd! I KNEW the 50% comment was WAY off. After reading this board daily for over 3 years, I knew if 50% were anywhere NEAR accurate I'd know about it!

Thanks for all your work on this. It would be interesting to track this over the next year and see how close your "sample" is. I'd be willing to bet it's very accurate!

 

[Lisa F]

Thanks for the effort! How nice to have those facts. Awesome idea and great job.

Lisa

 

[poopie]

why when I have asked the crew about missing the docking at CC they have looked at me like I was nuts, that's because it seldom happens.

Thanks for backing that up with numbers.

 

[Cindyluwho]

Thanks so much for going to the time and trouble to figure this out! When a CM onboard the Magic told me 50% I was seriously bummed and even a bit angry. You've made my day! I'm sorry I shared the CM's story, but I had no reason to doubt the man. I'm gonna go have some "crow" for breakfast now......

 

[jrabbit]

Hopefully people will continue to send you historical data and info from the current and future cruises. Thanks for your work doing this. We do care.

For everyone else, send in your sailing dates and if you docked or not!

 

[abitjaded]

Thanks Lloyd. I really appreciated this. From the off-hand reports, I was just counting on NOT seeing CC on our upcoming January 10 Eastern. Now I feel hope!

Carla

 

[tksbaskets]

We were on the 12/29-1/2/03 cruise and we could not dock at Castaway Cay :-(

 

[luv2tvl]

Good Job Lloyd!! Appreciate you taking the time and effort to put all that info together for us!!