How much of a premium does a small contract warrant?

DonMacGregor

Sub Leader
Joined
May 13, 2021
I just bought a 50 point add on direct. When i looked at the resale sites, the cost savings on 50 points just didn't seem worth the hassle, and the inability to use the points at Riviera/new disneyland tower. Plus between lower closing costs, and prorated current yesr annual dues, the difference was pretty small
I think as an existing owner, the price difference between a resale and direct purchase on a small point contract (50 points or less) just doesn't make sense. By the time you go through the whole resale process, including ROFR, waiting for docs to be returned, waiting for Disney to provision the points, in my mind it's just not saving enough.
 

Ruttangel

UK DVC
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
It’s pretty rare for Disney to ROFR contracts under 100 points.
Worth being aggressive on bidding otherwise you should be considering direct.
If you want a target figure to aim for then here are average ROFR by DVC last 3 months plus 10%. (RIV and AUL don’t have ROFR). Remember to take into account current points
AKV - $130
BCV - no buybacks, target $140
BLT - $165
BRV - no buybacks, target around $105
BWV - $130
CCV - $160
OKW- $115
PVB - $155
SSR - $130
VGF - $165

Saving against direct on 50pts would be between $2.5k to $5k
 

CanadaDisney05

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 20, 2017
It’s pretty rare for Disney to ROFR contracts under 100 points.
Worth being aggressive on bidding otherwise you should be considering direct.
If you want a target figure to aim for then here are average ROFR by DVC last 3 months plus 10%. (RIV and AUL don’t have ROFR). Remember to take into account current points
AKV - $130
BCV - no buybacks, target $140
BLT - $165
BRV - no buybacks, target around $105
BWV - $130
CCV - $160
OKW- $115
PVB - $155
SSR - $130
VGF - $165

Saving against direct on 50pts would be between $2.5k to $5k
The savings of 2.5k to 5k are against ROFR numbers, not average selling price for 50 pt contracts. You will likely be waiting a while and putting in a lot of effort to get these prices.
 

DonMacGregor

Sub Leader
Joined
May 13, 2021
It’s pretty rare for Disney to ROFR contracts under 100 points.
Worth being aggressive on bidding otherwise you should be considering direct.
If you want a target figure to aim for then here are average ROFR by DVC last 3 months plus 10%. (RIV and AUL don’t have ROFR). Remember to take into account current points
AKV - $130
BCV - no buybacks, target $140
BLT - $165
BRV - no buybacks, target around $105
BWV - $130
CCV - $160
OKW- $115
PVB - $155
SSR - $130
VGF - $165

Saving against direct on 50pts would be between $2.5k to $5k
Except those ROFR numbers are based on ALL contracts passing through ROFR, regardless of point count. As you said, Disney shies away from small contracts, so they tend to sell much closer to asking price. For example, the CURRENT average listing price for SSR contracts below 50 points across several sites including the forum sponsor is closer to $170 per point ($166-$168). 50 points are an average of $150 per point, or $7,500 total. The resale point costs are also trending up right now while it's not likely we'll see direct prices going up again until after the New Year.

The current direct price for SSR is $180 per point or $9,000 total for 50 points, so the gap on a 50 point contract is around $1,500 while the gap on a 25 point contract is only $250 ($4,500 versus $4,250). I get that the same math doesn't translate across all resorts precisely, but resale prices are always a reflection of the direct price cost so I'm willing to bet that you'd be hard-pressed to find a price differential of $100 per point (which is what you'd need to save $5k on 50 points).
 

CanadaDisney05

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 20, 2017
Except those ROFR numbers are based on ALL contracts passing through ROFR, regardless of point count. As you said, Disney shies away from small contracts, so they tend to sell much closer to asking price. For example, the CURRENT average listing price for SSR contracts below 50 points across several sites including the forum sponsor is closer to $170 per point ($166-$168). 50 points are an average of $150 per point, or $7,500 total. The resale point costs are also trending up right now while it's not likely we'll see direct prices going up again until after the New Year.

The current direct price for SSR is $180 per point or $9,000 total for 50 points, so the gap on a 50 point contract is around $1,500 while the gap on a 25 point contract is only $250 ($4,500 versus $4,250). I get that the same math doesn't translate across all resorts precisely, but resale prices are always a reflection of the direct price cost so I'm willing to bet that you'd be hard-pressed to find a price differential of $100 per point (which is what you'd need to save $5k on 50 points).
Just to clarify, on a 50 point contract, the savings would be about $750 (180 - 165 x 50). Even then, it's likely less than that because the closing costs are on resale are usually about a couple hundred bucks more. I honestly don't understand the people that are paying 165 for a 50 point SSR contract.
 

DonMacGregor

Sub Leader
Joined
May 13, 2021
Just to clarify, on a 50 point contract, the savings would be about $750 (180 - 165 x 50). Even then, it's likely less than that because the closing costs are on resale are usually about a couple hundred bucks more. I honestly don't understand the people that are paying 165 for a 50 point SSR contract.
I agree. I just rounded on the 50 pointers down to $150 PP because there is some spread and there are some still selling down in the high 140’s (but none currently listed that low).
 
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Ruttangel

UK DVC
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
The savings of 2.5k to 5k are against ROFR numbers, not average selling price for 50 pt contracts. You will likely be waiting a while and putting in a lot of effort to get these prices.
The market is over saturated right now, every bid should be under asking.
I've bought 2 small contracts in the last year much lower than the values I quoted.
Definitely achievable
 

macman123

DIS Veteran
DVC Gold
Joined
Mar 12, 2020
I think as an existing owner, the price difference between a resale and direct purchase on a small point contract (50 points or less) just doesn't make sense. By the time you go through the whole resale process, including ROFR, waiting for docs to be returned, waiting for Disney to provision the points, in my mind it's just not saving enough.
I agree. I would just buy direct for a small contract.....
 

kandlsutton

Mouseketeer
Joined
May 22, 2019
Just to clarify, on a 50 point contract, the savings would be about $750 (180 - 165 x 50). Even then, it's likely less than that because the closing costs are on resale are usually about a couple hundred bucks more. I honestly don't understand the people that are paying 165 for a 50 point SSR contract.
The savings depends on the resort. If you're only saving $15 off direct price, I agree with buying direct. But if you are talking $75 pp off direct (say Poly at $175), you would save over $3500 on 50 points. That, to me, would be worth going resale and enduring the ROFR wait.
 

macman123

DIS Veteran
DVC Gold
Joined
Mar 12, 2020
Its supply and demand. I have 2995 points, so for me getting a contract under 100 was pointless.

If you are going to get a 50 or 75, you are probably better off going direct, getting 2021/2022 points and being able to use at RIV
 

Ruttangel

UK DVC
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Its supply and demand. I have 2995 points, so for me getting a contract under 100 was pointless.

If you are going to get a 50 or 75, you are probably better off going direct, getting 2021/2022 points and being able to use at RIV
For some people saving up to $5k is definitely worth it. Having 3000 points, your advice is more applicable to those where money is no object.
The correct answer to this question is that sometimes it makes sense to buy resale and sometimes direct.
 

CanadaDisney05

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 20, 2017
The savings depends on the resort. If you're only saving $15 off direct price, I agree with buying direct. But if you are talking $75 pp off direct (say Poly at $175), you would save over $3500 on 50 points. That, to me, would be worth going resale and enduring the ROFR wait.
I dont disagree. My post was a response to someone else who provided numbers, but made a mistake in the arithmetic
 

DonMacGregor

Sub Leader
Joined
May 13, 2021
I dont disagree. My post was a response to someone else who provided numbers, but made a mistake in the arithmetic
It was at response to me, I didn’t make a mistake in the arithmetic. You just put a 50 point SSR contract at around $165 for a $750 savings, while I put it down at $150 PP for a savings of $1500. But it think you were responding to the same post as me and just showing the numbers could be tighter than the ones I used, and I agree.

Regardless, in order to get anywhere near $5,000 in savings on a 50 point contract, one obviously needs to save $100 per point. On even the most expensive resorts (BWV, PVB, VGC), the difference between direct and resale is MAYBE $70 per point, and that’s if you can even find one (which you won’t at VGC). Across all 15 resorts, the number is much tighter than that and has been shown that they can be so close that it really makes no sense to go resale.

Again, don’t get me wrong, if you can find the white whale and get $3,500 off on a contract, then that’s well worth the effort. I just see zero chance of getting a contract that’s going to save you that $5,000 originally mentioned as the top end of the savings range (“Saving against direct on 50pts would be between $2.5k to $5k”).

The point remains. The minimum end of that range, which really represents where the cutoff exists for whether it makes sense to go resale or not, is way too high to be made as a general statement. On two or three resorts, you might see savings in that range, on the majority of resorts that’s simply not the case. Can you possibly save $3,500 at the right time at the right resort? Absolutely. Can you say without qualification that, at a minimum, you can save at least $2,500 across the board on 50 points regardless of resort? No.
 
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CanadaDisney05

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 20, 2017
It was at response to me, I didn’t make a mistake in the arithmetic. You just put a 50 point SSR contract at around $165 for a $750 savings, while I put it down at $150 PP for a savings of $1500. But it think you were responding to the same post as me and just showing the numbers could be tighter than the ones I used, and I agree.

Regardless, in order to get anywhere near $5,000 in savings on a 50 point contract, one obviously needs to save $100 per point. On even the most expensive resorts (BWV, PVB, VGC), the difference between direct and resale is MAYBE $70 per point, and that’s if you can even find one (which you won’t at VGC). Across all 15 resorts, the number is much tighter than that and has been shown that they can be so close that it really makes no sense to go resale.

Again, don’t get me wrong, if you can find the white whale and get $3,500 off on a contract, then that’s well worth the effort. I just see zero chance of getting a contract that’s going to save you that $5,000 originally mentioned as the top end of the savings range (“Saving against direct on 50pts would be between $2.5k to $5k”).

The point remains. The minimum end of that range, which really represents where the cutoff exists for whether it makes sense to go resale or not, is way too high to be made as a general statement. On two or three resorts, you might see savings in that range, on the majority of resorts that’s simply not the case. Can you possibly save $3,500 at the right time at the right resort? Absolutely. Can you say without qualification that, at a minimum, you can save at least $2,500 across the board on 50 points regardless of resort? No.
The 165 per point was taken directly from your post. I may have misunderstood. Re-reading it, possibly you were saying that avg price for 50 pt contracts was $150, and avg price for less than 50 pt contracts was 165. Regardless, we are on the same page.
 

DonMacGregor

Sub Leader
Joined
May 13, 2021
The 165 per point was taken directly from your post. I may have misunderstood. Re-reading it, possibly you were saying that avg price for 50 pt contracts was $150, and avg price for less than 50 pt contracts was 165. Regardless, we are on the same page.
Yeah, that’s what I meant. 👍🏼
 

Sandisw

DVC Forums
Moderator
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
The savings depends on the resort. If you're only saving $15 off direct price, I agree with buying direct. But if you are talking $75 pp off direct (say Poly at $175), you would save over $3500 on 50 points. That, to me, would be worth going resale and enduring the ROFR wait.
Unless you want to use at RIV and any future resorts. If one does, even $3500 may be enough to swing a direct purchase.

Add the CC rewards, and not having to pay for 6 to 7 months if you have the Disney Visa it can make it even more attractive, especially if one can use them right away for an upcoming trip.
 

sethschroeder

DIS Veteran
Joined
Feb 24, 2013
People miss in the math all the closing costs.

So a $155/point contract for 50 vs 200 actually comes out cheaper for 200 and hence why the 50 point contract would be passed over by Disney (you are paying more).
 

kandlsutton

Mouseketeer
Joined
May 22, 2019
It was at response to me, I didn’t make a mistake in the arithmetic. You just put a 50 point SSR contract at around $165 for a $750 savings, while I put it down at $150 PP for a savings of $1500. But it think you were responding to the same post as me and just showing the numbers could be tighter than the ones I used, and I agree.

Regardless, in order to get anywhere near $5,000 in savings on a 50 point contract, one obviously needs to save $100 per point. On even the most expensive resorts (BWV, PVB, VGC), the difference between direct and resale is MAYBE $70 per point, and that’s if you can even find one (which you won’t at VGC). Across all 15 resorts, the number is much tighter than that and has been shown that they can be so close that it really makes no sense to go resale.

Again, don’t get me wrong, if you can find the white whale and get $3,500 off on a contract, then that’s well worth the effort. I just see zero chance of getting a contract that’s going to save you that $5,000 originally mentioned as the top end of the savings range (“Saving against direct on 50pts would be between $2.5k to $5k”).

The point remains. The minimum end of that range, which really represents where the cutoff exists for whether it makes sense to go resale or not, is way too high to be made as a general statement. On two or three resorts, you might see savings in that range, on the majority of resorts that’s simply not the case. Can you possibly save $3,500 at the right time at the right resort? Absolutely. Can you say without qualification that, at a minimum, you can save at least $2,500 across the board on 50 points regardless of resort? No.
I guess I found 2 white whales: a 75pt Poly at $175pp (loaded with 2020 points) and a 55pt VGF at $175pp. Combined savings of over $10k…well worth the time for me even with the closing costs…
 
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