How Much Longer Are Standby Wait Times?

[wisblue]

If I am interpreting it correctly, it looks like the same chart for the same day last year does have lower wait times:

http://touringplans.com/epcot/attractions/spaceship-earth/wait-times/date/2013-12-02

Yes, the wait times on Monday 12/1/14 are higher than for Monday 12/2/14 (in both cases the Monday after Thanksgiving). Here is how the posted wait times compared through the day:

9:30 AM 2013 5 minutes/ 2014 5 minutes
10:00 AM 5/15
10:30 AM 15/20
11:00 AM 15/25
11:30 AM 15/30
Noon 20/30
1 PM 10/20
2 PM 10/15
3 PM 10/15
3 PM On 5 minutes both years

 

[Laketravis]

Those times from last year are what I remember, am accustomed to and find reasonable for that attraction.

I know it might not seem like a big difference going from 5 minutes to 10, or 15 minutes to 30, but that is in fact a 100% increase. My feeling was there were actually less people in the park this year - could be because they were all standing in a line - but even if I'm wrong I'm certain there wasn't a 100% increase in attendance.

Spaceship Earth may be an extreme example (maybe not) but the increased usage of FP certainly seems to be putting upward pressure on the wait times of other attractions.

One bright side is it looks like Rope Drop still maintained it's edge, but only for a half hour versus the hour it used to.

 

[JimmyV]

To illustrate what I am trying to get a handle on, I'll offer you (or anyone else) this. Provide a specific example of an attraction at which you observed a significantly longer standby wait than you were used to seeing.

I don't think that any "amateurs" on this board can give you what you are looking for. I don't think that there are any better sources than Josh and TP, both of which suggest that depending on the hour and depending on the day, standby lines could be anywhere from 5 minutes less to 20 minutes more per ride. Is that "significant"? That's up to you. In a vacuum, a 15 minute wait is not catastrophic or even significant. But when a ride that used to be 2 minutes creeps up to 15, some may find it to be unwieldy. Add to the equation the fact that we are being sold on the idea that FP+ was going to make unicorns and rainbows appear, and people get apoplectic over a 15 minute wait.

Finally, one's own touring strategy is the single biggest factor of all. Consider the family who wants to ride each ride (including headliners) once and only once in a day. FP+ may not result in any additional waiting for them at any ride. Maybe they hit the headliners in the afternoon and knock off the secondary attractions at Rope Drop. In the past, they were used to waiting 10 minutes for those secondary attractions, and now they are walk-ons. Did the standby lines get shorter? Overall, no. But now they ride them first thing in the morning and experience no wait whatsoever. So to them, the waits seem shorter.

Now compare that to the family that bounces back and forth between headliners all day. In the past, they did 12 headliners in a day, 10 with fast passes that they kept pulling. Now, maybe they only do 4 with FP+ and have to wait in lines for the other 8 rides. Are the standby lines longer? To them they are because before they never waited in them. But to an outside observer, (like Josh or TP), maybe the lines are only 5-10 minutes different (either shorter or longer). In the end, as much as you crave an empirical result, you will never be able to obtain that when you are asking people who cannot divorce their own personal experience from the overall equation.

 

[wisblue]

I also looked at the wait times for Spaceship Earth each day from Thanksgiving Day through Friday, December 5. The full graphs are on the Touring Plans site for anyone who wants to look at them, but here are the highlights. I focused on 3 things: (1) peak wait time, (2) how long the peak lasted, and (3) how long the wait time was 30 minutes or longer.

Thanksgiving Day- Peak of 50 minutes hit briefly at 11:45, 30 minutes plus from 10 AM- 1:30.

Friday 11/28- Peak of 45 minutes hit briefly at 12:35; 30 minutes plus from 10-4:15.

Saturday, 11/29- Wait time went from 30 minutes at 11 AM to 60 minutes at 11:45 and briefly peaked at 65 minutes from 12 to 12:15. It then dropped back to 30 minutes by 1 PM and stayed at 25-30 minutes until 4:30 before dropping below 30 minutes for the rest of the day. (By far the longest wait times of the period, especially from 11 AM-1 PM.)

Sunday 11/30- Peak of 30 minutes from 11:15-1:15 with a drop to 20 minutes from 12-12:30. Below 30 minutes for rest of day.

Monday 12/1- Peak of 30 minutes from 11:30-12:30.

Tuesday 12/2 (AM EMH)- peak of 45 minutes from 11:15-12:15. 30 minutes plus from 10:45-12:30.

Wednesday 12/3- Peak of 30 minutes from 10:30-11:15

Thursday 12/4- Peak of 25 minutes from 10:30-11:30

Friday 12/5- Peak of 35 minutes from 11:00-12:30. Below 30 rest of day.

Except for the first 3 days and Friday the 5th, the wait time was no more than 5-10 minutes from 3 PM to park closing.

 

[MakiraMarlena]

what matters to me and some others is our own history and some of us can see wait times that used to be 10-20 minuts all the time are now 30,40 or more minutes all the time (small world mansion pirates) whenever we go at any time of year

None of these rides have 30 to 40 minute waits all the time, any day, any time of year. They might have them more often but they do not have permanent, constant 30-40 minute waits. Small World is currently 15 minutes, POTC 20. HM is closed so it can't be checked. I guess the MDX app could be inaccurate but I've walked on both POTC and HM recently.

I get that someone tried to explain above why it might be understandable for a guest to get apoplectic over a 15 minute wait when they are accustomed to a 2 minute wait, but it cannot be said that Small World is 30-40 minutes ALL the time when right now it is listed as 15.

 

[ktlm]

All I can do is tell you what we have experienced since FP+ started on our trips. We go at times with the same crowd levels. Not high crowd times- generally the crowd calendars are in the 4 to 7 range. The park does not feel any more crowded. The paths are about the same, lines for food the same, no big lines for bathrooms- all just like pre FP+. We are used to having lines of 10 minutes for Small World and POTC even in mid-afternoon. We are used to walking on to Nemo and Figment or having no more than a 5 minute line.


We experienced lines at POTC and Small World at a minimum of 30 minutes in the afternoon. POTC was often 40 to 45 minutes in the afternoon. We have NEVER seen that before except for the year we went to WDW between Christmas and New Years.

Nemo was 20 to 25 minutes by 10 or 10:30 in the morning. Figment was half an hour in the afternoons. I have not seen Figment have over a 10 minute wait at the times we have been to WDW in 10 years.

Because of the tiers, we observed the single rider line at RNRC at 30 minutes to an hour, usually in the 40 to 45 minute range. We are used to it being 10 to 20 minutes tops. Usually when we get to EPCOT at rope drop (not at the front of the pack), we can get to Soarin with it having a 15 to 20 minute wait. Now, it is already 40 minutes by the time we get to it.

 

[wisblue]

Those times from last year are what I remember, am accustomed to and find reasonable for that attraction.

I know it might not seem like a big difference going from 5 minutes to 10, or 15 minutes to 30, but that is in fact a 100% increase. My feeling was there were actually less people in the park this year - could be because they were all standing in a line - but even if I'm wrong I'm certain there wasn't a 100% increase in attendance.

Spaceship Earth may be an extreme example (maybe not) but the increased usage of FP certainly seems to be putting upward pressure on the wait times of other attractions.

One bright side is it looks like Rope Drop still maintained it's edge, but only for a half hour versus the hour it used to.

The point I am trying to address in this thread is not whether or why lines are higher at some attractions than in past years, but how much they have increased.

But I do want to address the point about a 100% increase in wait times. I think you realize that it doesn't take anything close to a 100 % increase in attendance to cause a wait time for an attraction to increase from 10 minutes to 20 minutes. If you just look at how wait times evolve over the course of a day, and how wait times are on the busiest days compared to the least busy days, wait times build up fastest at the most popular attractions. When wait times at those attractions reach a point that most guests consider too long, they move on to less popular ones.

For example at EPCOT, the first wave of guests quickly drive the wait times at Soarin and Test Track to 60 minutes or more, while the wait at something like SE may stay at 5-10 minutes for an hour or longer. But, as more people enter the park who are unwilling to wait 60-90 minutes for anything, a higher percentage of them will go to something else. At 10 AM the wait for SE may be 10 minutes, compared to 60 for Soarin. But when the wait for SE goes to 20 or 30 minutes by 11 AM, the wait time at Soarin has probably not swelled to 2 to 3 hours.

 

[Mambo Junkie]

All I can do is tell you what we have experienced since FP+ started on our trips. We go at times with the same crowd levels. Not high crowd times- generally the crowd calendars are in the 4 to 7 range. The park does not feel any more crowded. The paths are about the same, lines for food the same, no big lines for bathrooms- all just like pre FP+. We are used to having lines of 10 minutes for Small World and POTC even in mid-afternoon. We are used to walking on to Nemo and Figment or having no more than a 5 minute line.


We experienced lines at POTC and Small World at a minimum of 30 minutes in the afternoon. POTC was often 40 to 45 minutes in the afternoon. We have NEVER seen that before except for the year we went to WDW between Christmas and New Years.

Nemo was 20 to 25 minutes by 10 or 10:30 in the morning. Figment was half an hour in the afternoons. I have not seen Figment have over a 10 minute wait at the times we have been to WDW in 10 years.

Because of the tiers, we observed the single rider line at RNRC at 30 minutes to an hour, usually in the 40 to 45 minute range. We are used to it being 10 to 20 minutes tops. Usually when we get to EPCOT at rope drop (not at the front of the pack), we can get to Soarin with it having a 15 to 20 minute wait. Now, it is already 40 minutes by the time we get to it.

This is pretty much my assessment.

 

[Laketravis]

The point I am trying to address in this thread is not whether or why lines are higher at some attractions than in past years, but how much they have increased..

You're right. And per your example, the answer is as much as 100%.

 

[Laketravis]

This is pretty much my assessment.

Me three.

 

[wisblue]

All I can do is tell you what we have experienced since FP+ started on our trips. We go at times with the same crowd levels. Not high crowd times- generally the crowd calendars are in the 4 to 7 range. The park does not feel any more crowded. The paths are about the same, lines for food the same, no big lines for bathrooms- all just like pre FP+. We are used to having lines of 10 minutes for Small World and POTC even in mid-afternoon. We are used to walking on to Nemo and Figment or having no more than a 5 minute line.


We experienced lines at POTC and Small World at a minimum of 30 minutes in the afternoon. POTC was often 40 to 45 minutes in the afternoon. We have NEVER seen that before except for the year we went to WDW between Christmas and New Years.

Nemo was 20 to 25 minutes by 10 or 10:30 in the morning. Figment was half an hour in the afternoons. I have not seen Figment have over a 10 minute wait at the times we have been to WDW in 10 years.

Because of the tiers, we observed the single rider line at RNRC at 30 minutes to an hour, usually in the 40 to 45 minute range. We are used to it being 10 to 20 minutes tops. Usually when we get to EPCOT at rope drop (not at the front of the pack), we can get to Soarin with it having a 15 to 20 minute wait. Now, it is already 40 minutes by the time we get to it.

These are good observations. What times of year do you usually visit? What dates did you visit this year?

At Soarin, did you enter the line with a posted wait of 40 minutes and, if so, how long was your actual wait? One of our observations is that those posted times in the first half hour or so are often significantly overstated.

 

[Laketravis]

At Soarin, did you enter the line with a posted wait of 40 minutes and, if so, how long was your actual wait? One of our observations is that those posted times in the first half hour or so are often significantly overstated.

Now you are straying from your original object data points to that of abstract impression.

The same could have been said for years past - a 20 minute posted wait "might" have been only 10 minutes. Now, that 20 minute posted wait is 40 minutes and "might" be only 20.

I think it's important to stick with known correlations.

 

[wisblue]

You're right. And per your example, the answer is as much as 100%.

And as little as 0% for much of the day on several days.

There are some days in the period of your visit in which the posted wait times at SE were 50% or more lower that they were on Saturday the 29th. Do you think the attendance at Epcot those days was less than half of what it was on the 29th?

 

[wisblue]

Now you are straying from your original object data points to that of abstract impression.

The same could have been said for years past - a 20 minute posted wait "might" have been only 10 minutes. Now, that 20 minute posted wait is 40 minutes and "might" be only 20.

I think it's important to stick with known correlations.

Maybe I should rephrase the question then to ask if the 15-20 minute wait the poster experienced at Soarin was an actual wait time or a posted wait time and what time they arrived at the ride.

The first half hour may not be a good time to compare posted wait times anyway because they are notoriously inaccurate. Plus, the first wait time posted on Touring Plans often isn't until 15 minutes or so after the park opened, so we don't know for sure what the first people who arrived saw as a posted wait time.

 

[Jennasis]

We waited 35 minutes for Nemo at the end of September. No ride breakdown, and the posted wait was 20. That ride used to be a walk-on. Hopefully it will be again some day.

 

[Mambo Junkie]

I agree with the doubling (at least of the wait times for what used to be the easiest rides to get on. We were there Nov 28 - which we expected the 28th and 29th to be busy) thru December 5. We waited 50+ minutes for the Jungle Cruise with an original posted wait time of 20 minutes, then it went up to 40 minutes. This was on December 3, a level 4 day according to the crowd calendars. We gave up waiting for the train in Frontierland and the rest of our party left for DHS.

edit for clarity: I previously posted it said 40 minutes but really was over 50 in another thread. 30 minutes was a typo and I have corrected it. What I didn't say in the other thread (mainly because it wasn't addressing wait times specifically) is that when we first got in line it said 20 minutes. (We were outside the que) Before we got into the que, it went up to 40 minutes which wasn't a big surprise because anyone can see how long the line was. In reality, though, it took 50+ minutes to get on the ride. Still a long wait for a ride that used to not be that long and on a level 4 day. IMO it was very crowded and I would not be surprised to find out the crowd was actually larger than a 4. Everything was crowded and it was very hard to even walk around.

 

[Laketravis]

Wis, I think you are getting your answers but they may not be the ones you were hoping for.

 

[Laketravis]

"Last edited by Mambo Junkie; Today at 07:19 PM. Reason: The post was practice; the edit, perfection"

LOL! Gets my vote for "Best Ever Edit Reason"

 

[Suvadoo]

Wis, I think you are getting your answers but they may not be the ones you were hoping for.

Agree with this

 

[Laketravis]

There are some days in the period of your visit in which the posted wait times at SE were 50% or more lower that they were on Saturday the 29th. Do you think the attendance at Epcot those days was less than half of what it was on the 29th?

I could see that, yes. The 29th was the Saturday after Thanksgiving. I was there from approximately noon until 8pm.

Here are a couple of pictures from the following Tuesday - looks to me like half the crowd I saw on the 29th:

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