How much is the lack of AP sales affecting DVC?

[tjkraz]

DVC hasn't had that perk for years at this point. Even when APs were offered for a few weeks, DVC couldn't bother to pony up a small discount.

The Incredipass is priced more than 40% higher than the Sorcerer pass today. If you don't want to call that a "discount", it's still a rather valuable perk offered to DVC owners who travel outside of Thanksgiving and Christmas. The only option for non-members / non-residents who want an AP (when offered) is the Incredipass which costs about $450 more per person.

 

[RivShore]

I also don't believe the poppycock that annual passholders don't spend money compared to day ticket holders. That theory is based entirely on the presumption than an annual pass holder is a local who lives within half an hour of the parks. It does not consider annual passholders who are DVC members.

This doesn't mean that there aren't some APers who contribute more to the per-captia number than the average day guest. I'm sure there are! But the spending by individuals does not matter, except in how it contributes to the overall picture. And on average Passholders are less profitable than day guests. So on average Disney is better off restricting the flow of AP guests, unless and until they can no longer meet their attendance targets by doing so.

I think Brian hit it on the head by pointing out it's the average of all APs in the park. I would think that on any given (non-spring break, non-holiday) day, local APs vastly outnumber out of state APs so those locals just popping in for a drink or a quick bite or just to walk around, bring down the whole average greatly.

I think we all fall for the myth that Disney has all this granular data on each and every one of us but I don't think so. They are just making assumptions off big data sets as Brian described. If they could get it to a more detailed level, no doubt they would see that AP's who fly in a couple times a year spend very similar to the once a year, or less, non-AP's.

 

[Brian Noble]

We should be careful what we wish for. Eventually Disney could go the way of the airlines, where to obtain status you need to fly so many miles and spend so many dollars in a year.

 

[zavandor]

There are not enough Americans and international visitors to fill up the parks if everyone visit only once. Disney needs repeat visitors, or they're going to close in a couple of years.
The fact they've suspended sales of the AP in Paris too makes me think they're thinking to new type of AP, in all the directly owned parks, which still wil offer the possibility to multiple visits, but are not unlimited as they are now. A point system could work, or onsite AP only, or a limited number of visits per year or a combination of those. But AP are going to be back, especially with the worldwide economy cooling down.

 

[RivShore]

We should be careful what we wish for. Eventually Disney could go the way of the airlines, where to obtain status you need to fly so many miles and spend so many dollars in a year.

Exactly!!

Dear Disney,
Please do not upgrade your analytics department, assuming you have one and if you don't, please do not create one. That is all.

 

[tjkraz]

There are not enough Americans and international visitors to fill up the parks if everyone visit only once. Disney needs repeat visitors, or they're going to close in a couple of years.

I would propose that Disney thrives on the large group of individuals who fall somewhere between "only visit once" and "visit frequently enough to justify an annual pass."

 

[Brian Noble]

"Dr Noble? Hi, this is Bob. At Disney? Yes, good morning to you too. I'm calling because we noticed your AP was up for renewal, but that you haven't quite made your Mousketeer spending commitment for the year. We want to make sure you have that opportunity to re-qualify. Would you like to start a ShopDisney order? I can offer you five percent off select items if you buy before the end of the day today. I would hate to have you miss out on the Year of Magical Whimsy"

 

[RivShore]

"Dr Noble? Hi, this is Bob. At Disney? Yes, good morning to you too. I'm calling because we noticed your AP was up for renewal, but that you haven't quite made your Mousketeer spending commitment for the year. We want to make sure you have that opportunity to re-qualify. Would you like to start a ShopDisney order? I can offer you five percent off select items if you buy before the end of the day today. I would hate to have you miss out on the Year of Magical Whimsy"

We need to stop giving them ideas!

You know, if Bob 2.0 were still there, this would probably already be happening!!

 

[Brian Noble]

Don't kid yourself. Bob 1.0/3.0 has been talking about wanting fewer more profitable guests in the park for a long time, well before the 1.0->2.0 transition.

He's just better at being polite about it.

 

[RivShore]

Very true. The whole variable day pricing thing was his baby that was supposed to solve all the problems by spreading out the crowds. Instead people kept coming and coming and coming.

The only thing that brings AP's back is an economic slow down which I fear is around the corner.

 

[tjkraz]

I also don't believe the poppycock that annual passholders don't spend money compared to day ticket holders. That theory is based entirely on the presumption than an annual pass holder is a local who lives within half an hour of the parks. It does not consider annual passholders who are DVC members. These guests visit several times a year from out of state. And because they're only in town for a limited amount of time, they want to get the most out of their trip as possible. That means meals, souvenirs, tours and other special experiences. They are the ones spending the money! Not the day ticket holders who came for 5 days and have spent all of their finances on tickets.

This simply isn't an accurate characterization.

Disney's average guest spending measures look at the entire vacation experience: lodging, meals, park admission, souvenirs, recreation, etc. Consider:

DVC members have kitchens or kitchenettes in every villa; infrequent guests are eating nearly every meal at a disney restaurant. DVC members have old MagicBands, t-shirts, popcorn buckets and other trinkets. When it comes to high-end experiences like Bibbidi Bobbed Boutique, VIP tours, building lightsabers and building droids, DVC members might do that once or twice. Meanwhile every single infrequent guest who walks through the gates is a candidate for these upsells. Passholders / DVC have likely ridden most attractions dozens of times. Who do you think is more apt to buy Genie+? Someone who has a "been there, done that" attitude toward attractions or someone who hopes to do anything-and-everything during what could be their only visit?

Add all of this up and DVC owners' average spending is undoubtedly on the low side. Especially so when given discounted Annual Passes as an admission option.

While a DVC member or pass holder may give Disney the same or more revenue over the course of the year (debatable), Disney must expend far more resources to cater to that individual. Pre-covid, this was Disney's playbook. They would happily pack 70,000 - 80,000 guests into the MK in hopes that each of them would at least buy a turkey leg or a soda while there.

Post COVID, Disney claims it is placing greater emphasis on improving the guest experience. Anecdotally, if Disney only wants to cap MK attendance at 50,000 guests on a typical day--in the interest of providing shorter lines, less crowded walkways, etc.--there's logic in favoring those who spend more each day of their visit.

A DVC member might make the claim "I spend $10000 per year on annual passes, DVC dues and other vacation expenses. Disney should want my business!" Problem is those dollars are likely buying 2-3 weeks of time at WDW annually. Right now, Disney's philosophy is that they would rather replace you with 3 families easy spending $15k for a week's visit. Or more precisely, at least get the DVC owner to spend more on their tickets (MYW vs AP).

Despite the price increases and policy changes, demand for Disney vacations continues to be strong. When you have a lot of people willing to visit, tough decisions have to be made about how to filter those crowds. Rise of the Resistance can only accommodate about 15k - 18k riders per day. If you have 30k paying $100+ to visit the park and half of them cannot ride, it's a problem.

We'll see how Disney's policies are tweaked if attendance starts to take a downturn. But let's not pretend that day guests are relegated to eating mayonnaise sandwiches and buying Walmart souvenirs after paying for their hotel and tickets. There are plenty of people with money to burn visiting WDW.

 

[wdw4rfam]

DVC hasn't had that perk for years at this point. Even when APs were offered for a few weeks, DVC couldn't bother to pony up a small discount.

I disagree. As out of state owners, we are able to buy sorcerer passes. They are almost half of what my friend pays for her incredipass. I’d consider that a SIGNIFICANT discount.

 

[Sandisw]

I disagree. As out of state owners, we are able to buy sorcerer passes. They are almost half of what my friend pays for her incredipass. I’d consider that a SIGNIFICANT discount.

Agreed and it’s silly to say that the only definiton of discount is the same product for less

So, as DVC members we are given a less expensive option with the Sorcerer pass and that alone is, as you say, a significant bit of savings over what others have as an option.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Agreed and it’s silly to say that the only definiton of discount is the same product for less

So, as DVC members we are given a less expensive option with the Sorcerer pass and that alone is, as you say, a significant bit of savings over what others have as an option.

How much discount do the folks who visit over Christmas get?

 

[tidefan]

"Dr Noble? Hi, this is Bob. At Disney? Yes, good morning to you too. I'm calling because we noticed your AP was up for renewal, but that you haven't quite made your Mousketeer spending commitment for the year. We want to make sure you have that opportunity to re-qualify. Would you like to start a ShopDisney order? I can offer you five percent off select items if you buy before the end of the day today. I would hate to have you miss out on the Year of Magical Whimsy"

Maybe they'll throw in free luggage

 

[Sandisw]

How much discount do the folks who visit over Christmas get?

How much of a discount is given for multi day tickets for those don’t use/need an AP?

Not ever benefit is going to meet everyone’s needs…that doesn’t diminish the one that is offered.

DVC members have access (when new passes were offered) to a less expensive pass and for those that can use it, it significant savings over other options. In that respect, DVC owners are eligible for a pretty decent perk.

 

[tidefan]

DVC members have access to a less expensive pass and for those that can use it, it significant savings over other options. In that respect, DVC owners are eligible for a pretty decent perk.

Not if we didn't keep our APs up

(Unfortunately, we are in that boat...)

 

[Sandisw]

Not if we didn't keep our APs up

(Unfortunately, we are in that boat...)

I think everyone realizes I meant when sales were going on…but I will add that comment.

 

[tidefan]

I think everyone realizes I meant when sales were going on…but I will add that comment.

I know that, I was just lamenting letting ours lapse!

 

[LPnerd]

Lots of points to allow for upgrades; or just rent out. Go to WDW once every 2 years so no APs not an issue. So DVCs are frequent short stay goer's and those probably had APs that didn't lapse.

New DVCs will adjust without the APs and Disney has lots of data to decide whether it's significantly impacted sales or travel. Or simply replaced by higher per stay spends per unit (either through rentals or concentrated DVC spend).

The recent drop of sales is economy; not lack of APs availability IMHO.

This is going to be a really unpopular opinion, but please hear me out. As a long time DVC owner, and a FL. resident we have seen so many changes through the years, however none have totally ruined our happy place like the past few years. WE used to stay on property sometimes, even after we moved about 17 min. away, for a staycation. No more. The prices killed it for us, even the fl. resident pass is no longer worth it IMHO, due to the price gouging in every other area. From popcorn, to dinner at nicer places where the food is often too salty to eat, or so obviously pre cooked and reheated I could do that at home.
Another big problem is the new fast pass system. I don't walk around with a phone. I need my hands free to grab a grandchild or two, LOL> also, I have seen so many phones fly out of rides I've lost count. And lets face it, since the inception of Go.net and all disney wifi /internet related stuff thos can be a epic fail at anytime and unless you have a hard copy on you, you could be up a creek. They finally get magic bands to work about 85% of the time only to try and get rid of them, or charge people for them. ( You can opt for the old fashion key card, and it's FREE but no one offers that info. )
All the changes that have resulted in lack of staff has made the overworked people there no where near as magical as it was, lot of cast member C/o. Things are a bit better now that we have Isner back, however, lets not forget, he was the originator of the price gouging era. I think for us the answer is, we will go to the Xmas party, and nothing else @ Disney for a while, maybe a day at Epcot food and wine on a slow day?
So now our plan is to go to Vero once a year as is fam tradition, utilize the Publix for meals, and the grab and go by the pool for adult dole whip ( amazing!). The rest of our points will be used for one more trip back to Hawaii, and I think we will try the new out of system points in Vegas and other places out west. We shall see but when the price of re-sale points goes back up, we are probably going to sell about 1/2 as we are getting old, LOL.