How much are the extra 12 years worth?

[JoeThaNo1Stunna]

Originally posted by spiceycat
okw (DVC) started out with a 50 year contract.

SSR is located in the same area as OKW - I think they wanted the same assumption.

as far as wanting SSR over BCV or BWV - remember you real estate training - location, location, location.

you cares if SSR goes for longer - would that really be prefer over being able to walk to a theme park?

In would think the location of SSR is seem by DVC as a handicapped - so to counter the location they gave it more years.

Now I love OKW - but it has bigger rooms - the location is great for me - but I also own points at VWL and BWV - for their locations.

I don't want to ruffle any feathers at all, just provide a little insight from a future DVC-er and the younger generation. Most of the people on this board don't seem to value the extra twelve years as much because they figure they will be pretty old and not able to enjoy WDW as much. Myself, I'd much prefer BWV or VWL, but I hope and think that I will still be doing alright and able to enjoy those extra twelve years. I'm def. buying the longest possible contract b/c to me it's worth twelve years of accomodations, even if you have to ride a bus to the parks. Again, I definetly understand the POV of wanting a better location, but to me the 12 years outweighs that, especially for those who are currently 25 and younger.

 

[mydogdrew]

Originally posted by JoeThaNo1Stunna
I don't want to ruffle any feathers at all, just provide a little insight from a future DVC-er and the younger generation. Most of the people on this board don't seem to value the extra twelve years as much because they figure they will be pretty old and not able to enjoy WDW as much. Myself, I'd much prefer BWV or VWL, but I hope and think that I will still be doing alright and able to enjoy those extra twelve years. I'm def. buying the longest possible contract b/c to me it's worth twelve years of accomodations, even if you have to ride a bus to the parks. Again, I definetly understand the POV of wanting a better location, but to me the 12 years outweighs that, especially for those who are currently 25 and younger.

If you remove the emotion from the analysis you are left with basic finance here. My points are:
1. You can save considerable money going resale if you find the right contract with banked points ($60 points net vs. $85 SSR)
2. Those savings will compound to a considerable sum over the next 38 years, far more than a SSR resale could possibly demand in 38 years.
3. There is risk with any timeshare. Dues could outpace the underlying value of the rooms in 40 years (i.e. there is no guarantee that SSR will be worth anything those last 12 years - not a prediction).

I'm sure SSR will turn out great when it's done. However, to me I'll take the cheaper resale, better park location and reduced risk associated with BWV. Dues are less at SSR (now anyway) but, if you stick with std view at BWV, you'll need 200 points at SSR for every 150 at BWV (approximately).

Buy where you want. If it's not SSR then buy SSR in 40 years.

 

[tjkraz]

Originally posted by mydogdrew
If you remove the emotion from the analysis you are left with basic finance here.

Yes, but any "financial analysis" is front-loaded with assumptions and guesswork.

1. You can save considerable money going resale if you find the right contract with banked points ($60 points net vs. $85 SSR)

Agreed. And that's about the only thing that we can really label "fact" in the discussion.

2. Those savings will compound to a considerable sum over the next 38 years, far more than a SSR resale could possibly demand in 38 years.

Yes, but if the entire point of buying into DVC is to prepay for vacations down the road, who really cares what the resale value might be.

IMO, the real question that should be asked is if one could take the "savings" and invest those dollars, would you have enough $$$ in 2042 to cover 12 more years worth of trips at whatever the Disney prevailing cash rates might be?

Maybe yes, maybe no. Viewed from that standpoint, DVC is something of an insurance policy against inflationary increases in Disney room rates. Member dues will certainly increase, but historically they have not done so to the same degree as cash rates. And, it's reasonable to assume that if Disney incurs some hardship which would cause DVC dues to skyrocket, those same increases would also impact costs in the WDW Resort unit. In the long term, cash rates will also increase accordingly.

3. There is risk with any timeshare. Dues could outpace the underlying value of the rooms in 40 years (i.e. there is no guarantee that SSR will be worth anything those last 12 years - not a prediction).

I have no comment on that one, Chicken Little.

I'm sure SSR will turn out great when it's done. However, to me I'll take the cheaper resale, better park location and reduced risk associated with BWV. Dues are less at SSR (now anyway) but, if you stick with std view at BWV, you'll need 200 points at SSR for every 150 at BWV (approximately).

...or I can just use my SSR points for a Std View at BWV (as I'm scheduled to do in May '05), and pocket the difference.

 

[JoeThaNo1Stunna]

Also, $60 is very low. Most points that aren't for VB or HH are going for around $72-77 pp now.

 

[tjkraz]

Originally posted by JoeThaNo1Stunna
Also, $60 is very low. Most points that aren't for VB or HH are going for around $72-77 pp now.

In mydogdrew's defense, I do think his numbers are fair. He's assuming approx. $80 per point paid for points, maintenance and closing. Then, he's also assuming that the contract you purchase has current year AND banked points available. If you rent those two years' worth of points for $10 each, you reduce your $80 pp cost to just $60.

IMO, that's a "real" number.

I don't think it can be used to demonstrate that resales are right for ALL potential members. But it is certainly a valid argument.

 

[mydogdrew]

A hedge against inflation is it? Lets look at the recent trends

1. Dues are up modestly over the past few years while the underlying $ price for rooms has decreased significantly with various discounts. You can argue that this is temporary but the fact is that the DVC value equation has eroded recently. I don't believe this will continue but if it did, your DVC investment would be a liability long before 38 years.

2. Price of SSR has decreased over the last 6 months while resale value has increased dramatically over the same period. Of course this is driven by ROFR (but all resorts play by those rules). It was $95, now effectively $85 + other incentives (AP/II).

There is no denying that the SSR purchaser is taking on more risk since they are paying more for a benefit that is further out in time.

Since you will still have to pay dues those last 12 years I'm not sure I follow your logic re: $ saved today needs to cover $ rooms down the road. What I think you meant was that $ saved today needs to cover the $ price of the rooms after deducting the dues you would otherwise pay over the last 12 years. So I would argue that todays savings really only needs to cover half of your trips over the last 12 years to "break even". I would hardly consider paying a 40% premium for SSR a value for this limited benefit.

BTW, you may be able to get std view at 7 months at times but I think you realize that these rooms are consistently taken by BWV owners during all but the slowest seasons.

I hope to stay at SSR some time - I'm guessing its nice, its just that an extra $5k (that's $40k in 36 years at 6%) for a 200 point contract doesn't make sense to me for a resort with no real 11 month booking advantage. I hope you guys get to at least guarentee a view at some point.

See you in May.

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by CRSNDSNY
What do you suppose prompted them to offer the longer contract with SSR? Is it a timeshare trend?

The problem with selling a timeshare RTU is that it will be a depreciating asset and at some point the time left will devalue it. In general for timeshare it appears the point of decline starts at around 30 years out. SSR is a large resort, even before the phase 3 announcement. And it is not a destination resort for many and is merely a way to get in the system. I wonder what percentage of younger owners are assuming there will be other resorts to use those last 12 years, I'm assuming the opposite. IMO, DVC had to do something if they wanted to jump start the sales, especially with the higher price, because a fairly large proportion of potential members would be wanting BWV, VWL and BCV. Lets think about what would have happened if SSR were the same expiration and as large as it is. I'm expecting it to take 10 years or more to sell out. By the time it was nearing the end, it would have been well under 30 years, even with optimistic projections and with nothing to spur sales, would have likely taken 15-18 years to sell out. What amazes me is that BCV didn't have the new start date.

It will be interesting to see what happens with SSR the last 12 years. Will it be sought after because there are less or no other resorts. Or will it be outcast because it's 40 years old and in somewhat of a moderate location. I don't know and I doubt anyone else does either but my guess is more the former to somewhat in between. I certainly don't think it'll be gangbusters near the end. As for getting BWV or standard view at BWV, that will become harder and harder and something I think we can assume will not happen very often at the 7 month window in upcoming years.

Yes, but if the entire point of buying into DVC is to prepay for vacations down the road, who really cares what the resale value might be.

I think that's true for some not for others. I know of several people who have bought for use now and the idea of selling later around the time they project the prices to start to drop. And I think there are a couple of people who have bought with the idea of renting as the main usage. I also feel that anyone who doesn't at least consider the price and potential long term cost is a fool. While it's true that the POS says you shouldn't consider DVC as an investment, they don't do so to say you can't. All they're trying to do is protect themselves in case things don't work out. It's a response to an industry sales tactic touting buying now and selling later at a profit. Same is true with the caution against renting, another industry sales tactic and another case to give DVD the right to say "we told you so". I can tell you I plan to sell one of my three contracts relatively soon, a second in maybe 7-10 years and keep the third for a while but maybe not until the end.

As for recent and long term resort prices, I'm not convinced they are down overall. I know there are some good prices at times but overall I think the prices are higher on average. Besides, DVC was always the best deal financially using for Sun-Fri and really the only time that it made sense financially for this type of commitment.

IMO, the bottom line is that DVC needs to save you a ton of money over the years to justify the risk and commitment owning it. The only way to do this is the S-F stays for most of the time and essentially not using it for non DVC options.

 

[DrTomorrow]

Originally posted by mydogdrew
A hedge against inflation is it? Lets look at the recent trends

1. Dues are up modestly over the past few years while the underlying $ price for rooms has decreased significantly with various discounts. You can argue that this is temporary but the fact is that the DVC value equation has eroded recently. I don't believe this will continue but if it did, your DVC investment would be a liability long before 38 years.

2. Price of SSR has decreased over the last 6 months while resale value has increased dramatically over the same period. Of course this is driven by ROFR (but all resorts play by those rules). It was $95, now effectively $85 + other incentives (AP/II).

A financial planner friend of mine always warned me about two "analyst tricks" to watch out for:

1. People who try to take numbers/returns/trends caused by temporary situations and extend them out over a long period of time.

2. People who pick and choose - and worse, combine - periods of time when doing a comparison.

Just FYI.... IMHO - YMMV

Oh, and I'll gladly take the "risk" of having an extra 12 years at WDW!

 

[Beca]

I can't talk about what is right for anyone else (and I really wouldn't want to if I could). But, I am 35 years old...I guess that puts me smack dab in the middle of this debate.

We considered SSR, but as nice as the resort looks (it is a BEAUTIFUL resort), it just does not fit our personalities. Ironically, we liked EVERY other resort better than SSR...and, please don't think I am "bashing"...I really do not mean to! I don't go to clubs, I am not a huge fan of DTD, and spas make me really uncomfortable...that's just me (and, DH is the same way). So, for us it came down to the fact that we do not want to stay at SSR...probably ever...unless other resorts were not available. So, I really didn't like the prospect of owning SSR with no guarantee that other resorts would be available during those 12 years.

Realistically, I will be 73 when our contract ends, and although I will be VERY sad, I don't know that I would be wanting to go to Disney a few times per year after that age anyhow. But, that being said....others on the boards have speculated that DVC might offer to "extend" resort ownership time of all resorts to match SSR. If that were offered, I would consider purchasing the extra years...but, I won't be too sad if it is not offered. I figure, I still have longer on my contracts than I have been alive....and, that's a REALLY long time to do anything...even the things you love!!

Bottom line for us...the 11 month advantage at the resorts and locations that I really love were more important than the extra 12 years. I would rather have 38 years of WONDERFUL vacations knowing that I will be able to practically guarantee staying where I want, when I want while my children are growing up, than have a 50 year contract with 38 years of "sweating" to see if I can stay where I really want to, and 12 years of not knowing what will be available after that.

And, as DVC grows, it is ANYONE'S guess how easy it will be to book at a resort that is not your home. I just had to make ressies for CRT, and PSB...I was getting up at 3:45AM and using every land and cell line I could get my hands on to try to get these elusive ressies...it was exhausting!!! If DVC grows to 200,000...which it may, you never know.....I can forsee a time when you will need to call day-by-day at MS opening to get ressies not at your home resort. This is why we have decided to buy contracts at as many resorts that we feel we would like to stay...we currently own at BWV, and VWL...and, are in the process of adding on at OKW (I WANT a grand villa!!!). I know many here will disagree with me...and, you may be right while I am completely wrong...but, that is just it....who knows?...it is a gamble we all have to take based on our beliefs.

Today, right now....these are precious years...I want them to be PERFECT...that is the most important thing to us.



Beca

 

[tjkraz]

Originally posted by mydogdrew
A hedge against inflation is it? Lets look at the recent trends

1. Dues are up modestly over the past few years while the underlying $ price for rooms has decreased significantly with various discounts. You can argue that this is temporary but the fact is that the DVC value equation has eroded recently. I don't believe this will continue but if it did, your DVC investment would be a liability long before 38 years.

Source please?

What I DO know to be true is that Rack Rates at the Deluxe resorts have increased by 29% since 1997. That figure is based upon the rates at BWI Water View, Regular Season (1997 - $315, 2004 - $405).

Meanwhile, dues at BWV have increased less than 11% over the same time period (1997 - $3.84, 2004 - $4.25).

2. Price of SSR has decreased over the last 6 months while resale value has increased dramatically over the same period. Of course this is driven by ROFR (but all resorts play by those rules). It was $95, now effectively $85 + other incentives (AP/II).

The $10 per point discount is basically Magical Beginning, which has been offered for YEARS. The base price is $95 per point--the same as it has been since May. The $10 reduction is based upon the fact that the first points will not be received until 2005.

Regarding the APs, I have no more idea why DVC is doing that than you do. Actually, I have my theories, but I'm not going to bother repeating.

Nevertheless, what does this even have to do with the discussion? Are you trying to use it to prove that points at SSR somehow have lower value than the other resorts? If so, that's a ridiculous assertion based upon the fact that SSR points have already hit the resale market at prices approaching $80 per point (vs. $72-74 for the other resorts.)

There is no denying that the SSR purchaser is taking on more risk since they are paying more for a benefit that is further out in time.

Risk???? No, there is no "Risk", at least not the way I define it. You pay the dollars, you are GUARANTEED a room commensurate to the number of points purchased.

I HOPE you're not trying to tie this concept of "Risk" into the possible level of dues in 40 years. Inciting uncertainty and doubt over dues responsibities in 40+ years is about the same as telling someone that a new car purchase represents a "Risk" because you don't know what gas prices might be down the road.

Since you will still have to pay dues those last 12 years I'm not sure I follow your logic re: $ saved today needs to cover $ rooms down the road. What I think you meant was that $ saved today needs to cover the $ price of the rooms after deducting the dues you would otherwise pay over the last 12 years. So I would argue that todays savings really only needs to cover half of your trips over the last 12 years to "break even".

The "half of your trips" is again one of your assumptions. If Rack Rates continue to increase at a 4-5% clip while dues are only going up 1-2% annually, I'd say the dues paid will only be a tiny portion of the cash cost of a trip in 2053.

I would hardly consider paying a 40% premium for SSR a value for this limited benefit.

And I could question why in the world someone would want to pay dues of $4.25 per point when they could be paying $3.56. Assuming a 2% annual increase in dues, between now and 2042 you'll pay over $8,000 more in dues at BWV than at OKW on 200pts. Gee, if you'd chosen instead to invest that money....

BTW, you may be able to get std view at 7 months at times but I think you realize that these rooms are consistently taken by BWV owners during all but the slowest seasons.

Yeah, I keep hearing that. I just haven't seen any proof yet.

BWV isn't exactly my favorite resort--it just happens to be the most convenient for our next trip. But seeing as though we will probably be making annual trips in May, I don't forsee any problems having our pick of the litter indefinitely.

 

[pplasky]

Originally posted by mydogdrew


BTW, you may be able to get std view at 7 months at times but I think you realize that these rooms are consistently taken by BWV owners during all but the slowest seasons.

As it turns out, I talked to friends who are members of DVC, before purchasing(at SSR for the extra 12 yrs). Not one of them owns at BWV or VWL, yet they all(three different families) said they have had no trouble securing ressies at those locations. One person said they have been put on a wait list for a really busy time period, but that came through in about two weeks. I think the owners at BWV and VWL think the problem is worse than it actually is. Granted you may not be able to get ressies at 4-5 months out, but neither would people who own at these resorts.

 

[spiceycat]

standard views are a different class - far fewer points so the demand is very great for them.

if your friends got standard view (not preferred view) at BWV in the 7th month time - they are very lucky!!!

 

[pplasky]

Originally posted by spiceycat
standard views are a different class - far fewer points so the demand is very great for them.

if your friends got standard view (not preferred view) at BWV in the 7th month time - they are very lucky!!!

Not sure what view they got, but if the issue is solely location, it is possible to get other resorts at the 7 month window. I will be booking my vacations at SSR, so either way it is a non-issue for me.

 

[mlacreta]

I'm not a vaca owner yet but i am looking into it and after talking to a rep yesturday i thought i might have some insight for you. i also was more interested in okw than ssr and was concerned that if my home resort was ssr i would risk not getting a reservation at okw waiting till the 7 month mark. but i was told you could book ssr at 11 then try for what you really want at 7 and if you get it transfur the points. also i was curious as to what good the extra 12 years would be if there was only one resort to chose from but i was "unofficially" assured that there were already plans for other new resorts as well as the possibility that when the current resorts expire they will resell them and possible be available for use bu those of us that already have interests as well. a few people have mentioned the cost difference and seems to me to be a wash considering you will have no closing costs if purchasing new. hope that helps somehow!

 

[mydogdrew]

Here are the latest room discounts. These should be used, in part, to evaluate the DVC value. I remember paying $200 a night back in 1991 at the Polynesian. Granted you need to do your homework to get these rates but evaluating based on rack rates is not a fair comparison. I believe these rates are lower than those offered at the end of the summer althought I can't remember exactly. It is really difficult to make a compelling argument that cash rates have kept pace with dues when you see stuff like this.


January-April 2005 Room-Only Discount Code

Ask for Code BDP and get special discounted rates at select Walt Disney World resorts for check-ins 1/2/05-4/16/05. Discounts will be extremely limited or nonexistent for check-ins 1/14/05-1/16/05, 2/3/05-2/5/05, 2/10/05-1/12/05, 3/11/04-3/13/05 and 3/17/05-3/19/05.

Rates will vary by season. Some sample rates:

Value Resorts (All Stars and Pop Century) - $55 standard, Value season; $79 standard, Peak season; $89 preferred, Peak season
Moderate Resorts - $85 standard, Value season; $114 standard, Peak season
Animal Kingdom Lodge - $119 standard, Value season; $134 pool view, Value season; $164 savannah view, Value season; $206 savannah view, Peak season
Wilderness Lodge - $119 standard, Value season; $138 woods view, Value season; $152 courtyard view, Value season; $161 standard view, Peak season; $175 woods view, Peak season; $198 courtyard view, Peak season
Ft. Wilderness Cabin - $155 Value season; $181 Peak season
Contemporary - $164 standard view garden wing, Value season; $265 tower, Value season
Polynesian - $224 garden view, Value season; $291 garden view, Peak season
Other resorts, room types and views are available at varying prices!

 

[tjkraz]

Originally posted by mydogdrew
Here are the latest room discounts.

...Granted you need to do your homework to get these rates but evaluating based on rack rates is not a fair comparison. I believe these rates are lower than those offered at the end of the summer althought I can't remember exactly. It is really difficult to make a compelling argument that cash rates have kept pace with dues when you see stuff like this.

I'm well aware of the practice of offering discounted room rates. I don't exactly understand how this list addresses your statement that "underlying $ price for rooms has decreased significantly [over the past few years] with various discounts."

There have always been discounts and will continue to be discounts. But, as we all know, there are several problems with discounts:

1. They are never offered during the busiest times of the year.

2. There is no guarantee they will EVER be made available for the travel dates you pick.

3. Discount rates are only announced a few weeks before the travel dates.

4. There's no guarantee you'll be able to get a room at the discount rate. Check the Resorts board to see how thrilled people were when the December codes were first released.

5. Getting the discount often requires some additional purchase, such as an Annual Pass.

6. Finally, there's no guarantee that discounts will continue to be offered. And, even if they are offered, how 'deep' they might be.

If you want to re-visit the topic of "Risk", let's talk about the risk of foregoing DVC continuing to vacation under the premise that room discounts will be a better value.

Look, I'm not trying to pretend that there is any one magical formula to assigning a "value" to DVC. I've already conceded that going the resale route and renting points is the single most economical manner to buy into DVC.

(Of course if you're that interested in renting points, you could always buy SSR and have 50 years worth of points rent as opposed to 38. But, at some point I tend to believe that people are buying into DVC becuase they....oh, I dunno....actually want to use their points to STAY at Disney World!!!)

The fact remains there are too many unknowns to immediately assume that spending additional dollars for the years at SSR is a foolish waste of money. I'll even make you a deal--if 2043 rolls around, my dues are $54 per point and Lake Buena Vista is a smoking nuclear crater, you're welcome to be the first to say "I told 'ya so!!!"

 

[spiceycat]

here is the 1996 room rates to compare too
Disney all Star - stand $69 (no matter the season), Landscape/Courtyard $79 (no matter the season)

Disney's moderate - all - CBR, PO (POFQ), DL (POR)
standard - $95 value, $99 regular, $104 Holiday
Garden/Courtyard $119 value, $124 Regular, $129 Holiday
Pool/Lake - $124 value, $129 regular, $124 Holiday
king bed - same as lake

Disney's Vacation Club (OKW)
studio - $195 value, $215 regular, $225 holiday
1-bedroom - $265 value, $290 regular, $300 holiday
2-bedroom - $365 value, $385 regular, $395 holiday
3-bedroom - $780 value, $780 regular, $795 holiday

Disney's Polynesian
Standard View $200 value, $215 regular, $225 holiday
garden view $235 value, $250 regular, $260 holiday
Pool/Marina $265 value, $280 regular, $290 holiday
Lagoon view $285 value, $305 regular, $315 holiday

Disney's Contemporary
wings
Standard view $195 value, $215 regular, $220 holiday
Garden/water $220 value, $245 regular, $255 holiday
Deluxe Water $250 value, $270 regular, $280 boliday

tower
MK or bay view $270 value, $290 regular, $300 holiday

Disney's FW
home - $185 value, $215 regular, $220 holiday


Disney WL
Standard $159 value, $174 regular, $180 holiday
woodland $175 value, $190 regular, $195 holiday
Courtyard $200 value, $215 regular, $225 holiday


Disney's YC and BC
Standard $225 value, $240 regular, $250 holiday
Garden $250 value, $270 regular, $280 holiday
Lagoon $285 value, $305 regular, $315 holiday

DIsney's BW
Inn
standard $225 value, $240 regular, $250 holiday
garden $250 value, $270 regular, $280 holiday
Lagoon view $285 value, $305 regular, $315 holiday

Villa
Studio $210 value, $225 regular, $235 holiday
studio plus $235 value, $250 regular, $260 holiday
1-bedroom $285 value, $310 regular, $320 holiday
2-bedroom $385 value, $405 regular, $420 holiday
3-bedroom $780 value, $780 regular, $795 holiday

this sheet also lists the concierge and suites if anyone is interested

remember these are prices for


1996

 

[mydogdrew]

Originally posted by tjkraz
I'm well aware of the practice of offering discounted room rates. I don't exactly understand how this list addresses your statement that "underlying $ price for rooms has decreased significantly [over the past few years] with various discounts."

There have always been discounts and will continue to be discounts. But, as we all know, there are several problems with discounts:

1. They are never offered during the busiest times of the year.

2. There is no guarantee they will EVER be made available for the travel dates you pick.

3. Discount rates are only announced a few weeks before the travel dates.

4. There's no guarantee you'll be able to get a room at the discount rate. Check the Resorts board to see how thrilled people were when the December codes were first released.

5. Getting the discount often requires some additional purchase, such as an Annual Pass.

6. Finally, there's no guarantee that discounts will continue to be offered. And, even if they are offered, how 'deep' they might be.

If you want to re-visit the topic of "Risk", let's talk about the risk of foregoing DVC continuing to vacation under the premise that room discounts will be a better value.

Look, I'm not trying to pretend that there is any one magical formula to assigning a "value" to DVC. I've already conceded that going the resale route and renting points is the single most economical manner to buy into DVC.

(Of course if you're that interested in renting points, you could always buy SSR and have 50 years worth of points rent as opposed to 38. But, at some point I tend to believe that people are buying into DVC becuase they....oh, I dunno....actually want to use their points to STAY at Disney World!!!)

The fact remains there are too many unknowns to immediately assume that spending additional dollars for the years at SSR is a foolish waste of money. I'll even make you a deal--if 2043 rolls around, my dues are $54 per point and Lake Buena Vista is a smoking nuclear crater, you're welcome to be the first to say "I told 'ya so!!!"

Come on - you know there's lots more discounts now than pre-9/11. Also, I didn't say they were a better value - only that room rates have not kept pace with inflation in recent years. However, for the right person, they are an attractive alternative to investing $20k + dues. There are no restrictions (other than availability) on the above. I have friends who stayed at the BC in August for $200 per night and had no issues booking back in the spring. Since you raised the rental point I'll also mention that I have no difficulty renting excess points at BWV (std view studio F&W or December) for 40% more than SSR points will yield. Of course that's after paying 40% less up front. Any timeshare veteran will tell you don't buy from the developer. Disney is the only possible exception. With regard to SSR pricing - I believe it is/was overpriced as reflected in recent maketing. There were people paying $95 initially. Now, noone pays more than $90 + other perks. My point is that you can't count on price appreciation in the future to offset dues inflation risk.

 

[DrTomorrow]

Originally posted by mydogdrew
Here are the latest room discounts. These should be used, in part, to evaluate the DVC value. I remember paying $200 a night back in 1991 at the Polynesian. Granted you need to do your homework to get these rates but evaluating based on rack rates is not a fair comparison.

Here's where I disagree. When attempting to make a financial analysis based on past costs which attempts to make future predictions, using the rack rates is the best data to use. Now, granted, it's been a while since I had to do this kind of work, but even this lapsed MBA knows that any analysis based on data which contains words and phrases like "select Walt Disney World resorts", "Rates will vary by season", "available at varying prices" and "Discounts will be extremely limited or nonexistent" is flawed from its conception. For that matter, failure to account for the effects that 9/11 had on room rates makes any such projections useless. I'm with tjkraz; the assumption that room discounts will be available at all, much less for the resort, room-type and specific dates of travel, for the next 3 decades: now THAT'S risk!

Keep trying - here on the DIS, we're always looking for new ideas and info about our DVC ownership. Just make sure that your assumptions are clearly stated. There are people who stop by and look to us for advice (yeah, I know; scary ), so let's make sure that what we give this is as helpful - and accurate - as possible.

Be well!

PS I have one question for some old-time discounters; have there really always been AP discounts, even back in the 80's and 90's? My impression (which is based solely on reading the Theme Park and Debate boards for a year or two) is that they really weren't offered that widely until the economy started tanking in 2000 and then 9/11. Thanks!

 

[DrTomorrow]

Originally posted by mydogdrew
[...] With regard to SSR pricing - I believe it is/was overpriced as reflected in recent maketing. There were people paying $95 initially. Now, noone pays more than $90 + other perks. My point is that you can't count on price appreciation in the future to offset dues inflation risk.

It is my understanding that the only reason that there are perks for buying SSR is that the buildings aren't even complete; offering a discount to people who are willing to buy something they can't even use yet. To infer from this that SSR is overpriced is, ahem, suspect reasoning. If they continue to offer the incentives once construction catches up to sales, then you may have a point.